David Ferrer (4) vs Nicolas Almagro (10)
The first of the men’s quarter finals sees compatriots David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro face off for the thirteenth time in their careers and it looks impossible to oppose Ferrer. Already a title winner this year in Auckland, Ferrer secured seven titles in 2012, a feat not beaten by any other player on tour. Ferrer’s passage through to the last eight has been relatively straightforward and but for a sloppy third set against little-known American Tim Smyczek, Ferrer would have won his first four matches in straight sets.
Almagro on the other hand was taken to a decider in round one by another obscure American in Steve Johnson. Having come through that test, Nico’s route through has been smooth to say the least and a second set retirement by Janko Tipsarevic in round four only served to help his cause. Something certainly worth picking up on is how well Almagro has served during these championships. Second only to Milos Raonic, Almagro has served an impressive 68 aces and will need to serve every bit as good to even come close to beating Ferrer on Tuesday. Almagro’s notable serving statistics make me think the set scores are likely to be fairly close and this view can be further enhanced by the set scores between the pair previously. Of the 31 sets they’ve played, 11 have either gone 7-5 or 7-6 and I expect a similar trend to occur again. Almagro will be fully aware of his vastly inferior head to head record with Ferrer, as will Ferrer himself and this quarter final match looks to be one of the clearest cut of the four. Almagro will make Ferrer battle for the victory and I happen to think he’ll pinch a set but I still think his efforts will be in vain.
Selection: David Ferrer @ 1.19
Score: 3-1 @ 3.45
Novak Djokovic (1) vs Tomas Berdych (5)
Djokovic gave me a bit of a fright on Sunday morning and if you’d backed him like I have, I’m sure you thought it would be curtains for him. Stanislas Wawrinka played some absolutely inspired tennis and even in defeat dispelled a couple of myths that he can’t maintain the level necessary or the concentration required to defeat the game’s top players. The standard Wawrinka displayed was effectively Lukas Rosol-esque at Wimbledon where the unfancied Czech beat Rafael Nadal. That’s perhaps doing Stan a disservice because he’s far and away a better player than Rosol but you get the idea!
Under normal circumstances, I’d be very worried about the time Djokovic spent on court 48 hours ago but he’s proved time and time again that these long matches don’t faze him and for that reason I’d be surprised if Sunday’s exertions were evident come tomorrow. In terms of previous meetings, Djokovic can almost boast as strong a record against Berdych as Ferrer can over Almagro, given he leads 11-1 and having won their last nine matches, it’s difficult to see anything but this becoming ten. Berdych is a very talented player and on his day has the game to offer a serious examination of Djokovic’s title credentials. Australia probably isn’t Berdych’s favourite slam and he hasn’t progressed past this stage in nine previous attempts. I expect this to become ten attempts tomorrow with Djokovic marching onto the last four.
Selection: Novak Djokovic @ 1.22
Score: 3-1 @ 3.5
Jeremy Chardy vs Andy Murray (3)
Jeremy Chardy in a grand slam quarter final just sounds plain odd but one has to give credit to the unseeded Frenchman who saw off Juan Martin Del Potro in round 3 before backing up that quite remarkable victory with a four-set win over Andreas Seppi in the last sixteen. This betters his previous grand slam record outside of Roland Garros by some margin and he must be exceptionally proud of what he has achieved over the last week. Andy Murray on the other hand has breezed through to the last eight and has to be mighty relieved to be squaring off against the unfancied Chardy instead of Del Potro. In terms of their previous meetings, Andy leads 4-1 but Chardy will be taking some consolation from the fact it was he that won their last match in Cincinnati late last year. Murray was poor that day and I give Chardy little to no chance of beating Murray on Wednesday. A straight sets win for the Brit has to be the bet and whilst likely to be short enough, should be the likely outcome.
Selection: Andy Murray @ 1.06
Set Betting: 3-0 @ 1.5
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (7) vs Roger Federer (2)
Perhaps the most intriguing of the last eight matches is the one between second seed Roger Federer and seventh seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Four-time winner Federer and 2008 finalist Tsonga both excel at this tournament and we could be in for a bit of a classic. It’s still fairly early days in terms of Tsonga’s relationship with new coach Roger Rasheed but it’s challenging to argue with Tsonga’s stealth-like progress through the draw thus far. Straight set defeats of Michael Llodra, Go Soeda, and Blaz Kavcic, coupled with a four-set win over Richard Gasquet demonstrate to a point that Tsonga is playing some pretty decent stuff. Clearly the Frenchman won’t have opposed anyone of Federer’s calibre but could step up and give Federer a match on Wednesday.
An 8-3 head-to-head record in Federer’s favour shows who the better player is but Tsonga is no back number. He probably lacks that little bit of quality to really mix it with the likes of Djokovic, Murray, and Federer but very rarely does he fail to deliver on the big stage. He’ll take a set or possibly two off Roger I think but Federer’s class should tell in what could be a marathon match.
Selection: Roger Federer @ 1.18
Set Betting: 3-2 @ 7.6
Follow Chris on Twitter @cdquinn86
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