2-1 NAP WAS BETDAQ OFFER AT 4.9: Daqman bounced back to winning form yesterday with a sequence of 11231 in five races, with massive value on BETDAQ about his nap (4.9 taken about a 2-1 winner) and nine points above SP about his win-and-place bet. Profit on the day of around 40 points.
WON 5-2 ANCIENT TRUTH
WON 4-1 HOPE YOU CAN RUN
WON (3rd 16-1) w/p ROYAL MUSKETEER (BETDAQ 26.0)
WON 2-1 WOODHAY WONDER (BETDAQ 4.9 nap)
GUINEAS FAVOURITE TO WIN AT LAST! It’s the week of the final Guineas – in Ireland and in Germany – and the last of the Derby trials. The French and English Guineas have gone to outsiders but Daqman reckons there’s a worthy favourite for the German version in Cologne today.
MAIGRET SOLVES GUINEAS PUZZLE
🇩🇪 4.35 Cologne today (German 2,000 Guineas) English raiders Marco Botti, William Haggas, and Richard Hannon have taken three £60k first prizes in the last eight German Guineas.
Andreas Wohler has won two for the home side in the decade but, apart from one German Derby, Peter Schiergen lags behind for Classic winners, though he has been champion trainer for the last three years.
Wohler runs Ghorgan and Schiergen sends out Geography today, both with Group-3 form but beware that this German Guineas is not rated Group 1 but Group 2, so they pass muster in this company.
If there’s an Arc player among them to compare with Schiergen’s Longchamp winner, Danedream (2011), then it must be the unbeaten Maigret, top rated on his six lengths defeat of Geography at Krefeld in April and well drawn in 3.
Of the GB raiders, Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Habrdi has only Listed-level form. Devil’s Point (David Menuisier) ran second to Ancient Wisdom in the Doncaster Futurity.
Ten Bob Tony (Ed Walker) finished in front of City of Troy in the Newmarket 2,000 but, then again, almost every other runner did!
⭕ 2.05 Goodwood, Saturday (Height Of Fashion Stakes) Originally called the Lupe Stakes, after the winner of the 1970 Epsom Oaks, but in recent years the Height Of Fashion after the 1982 winner.
The best winner this century was Snow Fairy (2010), who went on to take both the Irish Oaks and the Epsom Oaks for Ed Dunlop.
⭕ 3.40 Curragh, Saturday (Irish 2,000 Guineas) This has produced the double, with the winner of the Newmarket Guineas following up, most recently Gleneagles (2015) and Churchill (2017). There were 40 left in before today’s declarations.
⭕ 3.45 Goodwood, Saturday (Cocked Hat Stakes) Troy, the 1979 winner of the 200th Derby, took two trials, the Sandown Classic Trial then the Cocked Hat when it was known as the Predominate Stakes.
In recent years it has produced Rewilding (3rd in the Derby 2010) and Masked Marvel (winner of the St Leger of 2011),
⭕ 3.45 Curragh, Sunday (Irish 1,000 Guineas) The last Newmarket-Curragh 1,000 Guineas doubles were by Winter (2014) and Hermosa (2019), both trained Aidan O’Brien There were 40 left in Sunday’s renewal before the final declarations.
⭕ 4.35 Cologne, Sunday (German 1,000 Guineas) Hugo Palmer (2016 and 2017) and Mark Johnston (2018 and 2019) have both landed consecutive winners of this German Guineas for fillies.
👀 Look out for Daqman’s ABC guides to the Irish Guineas
I’M A BELIEVER
⭕ 5.30 Redcar today The Crafty Mole might be worth taking on here. He improved for the step up trip to win at Wetherby last time out but a 5lb penalty looks harsh for that win which came on soft ground and hovering (and indeed drifting) at just over 2.35 on Betdaq Betting Exchange is making little appeal to Daqman.
Believitanducan was a further four lengths back in third that day and can’t be completely ruled out given the switch to a quicker surface which should suit.
This is only his fifth career start but his earlier form counts for little here as it came over shorter distances / heavy turf and all-weather and it was only his recent start that gave us any clues as to his ability.
A 5lb swing for four lengths wouldn’t normally be enough but when I’m being offered over double the odds on polar opposite ground I’m happy to step in.
STAR’S ARE ALIGNED
⭕ 6.40 Windsor Another favourite to take on – it’s a day for keeping the stakes low and trying to make something happen with limited downside.
I wasn’t keen on market leader Amazonian Dream here. Oisin Murphy is re-united with him but again the ground is the main reason for taking him on.
He won over course and distance in October (soft) but has disappointed in his two starts since this year – one of those on good ground. It’s forecast good to firm by the Thames tonight and he will need to show plenty more than he did earlier in the month when beating only two home.
He gets 2lb relief from the handicapper but is a poor favourite in my opinion.
A better option might be Team Osborne’s Many A Star who is a previous good to firm ground winner and can surely be excused his defeat at Goodwood last time out on heavy ground in a similar class 3. He’s consistent and should relish the quicker ground.
PAB THE NAP
⭕ 8.30 Carlisle Paborus is napped to follow up on his win at Redcar earlier in the month when he won in the style of a good horse. He beat Roberto Caro and Diligent Resdev who gave the form a massive rubber stamp when winning a class 3 handicap at York last week.
Trainer Edward Bethell has no fancy entries yet for Paborus but a convincing win here should surely see him flipping through the entry book?
Operate gets 5lb but looks a little exposed whilst Charlie Johnston’s runner Secret World looks the danger if she build on her Wolverhampton success from last October.
DAQMAN’S BETS
4.35 Cologne (SP)
BET 10pts win MAIGRET
5.30 Redcar (win 10)
BET 2.3pts win BELIEVITANDUCAN
6.40 Windsor (win 20)
BET 2.8pts win MANY A STAR
8.30 Carlisle (win 10, nap)
BET 10.0pts win PABORUS
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