Cincinnati Bengals (8-4-1, 6-6-1 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (7-6, 7-4-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Cleveland -1 (44)
Significant Injuries
Cincinnati: CB Adam Jones (questionable– chest), TE Jermaine Gresham (questionable– toe), CB Terence Newman (questionable– ankle), DE Margus Hunt (doubtful– ankle), LB Vontaze Burfict (out– knee)
Cleveland: LB Jabaal Sheard (questionable– foot), LB Karlos Dansby (questionable– knee), TE Gary Barnidge (out– ribs), S Tashaun Gipson (out– knee), CB K’Waun Williams (out– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss
Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 December games
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
Cleveland is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. AFC North opponents
Cleveland is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-0 in Cincinnati’s last 4 road games
The OVER is 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 5 games following a double-digit home loss
The UNDER is 5-0 in Cleveland’s last 5 home games
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. The Bengals have been better than the Browns throughout the season and especially lately, as they’ve won 3 straight road games while Cleveland has lost 3 of 4 overall. Over the Browns’ last 8 games they’ve only beaten one team with a winning record, so they’re probably not as good as their 7-6 record would indicate. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is every bit as good as their 8-4-1 record would indicate, as 5 of their last 7 wins have come by 9 points or more. Remember also that the Bengals are a great “bounce-back” team under Marvin Lewis, covering in 8 of their past 10 games following a loss.
2. Cleveland has been awful against the run this year, ranking 26th in rushing defense, and Cincinnati has a top-10 rushing offense thanks to the “thunder and lightning” tandem of Jeremy Hill (thunder) and Giovani Bernard (lightning). The Bengals average over 120 yards per game on the ground and Cleveland surrenders nearly 130, which means bad things are likely in store for the Browns. It’s tough to beat a team when they can run it right down your throat.
3. Cincinnati has a veteran defense that has allowed 13 points or fewer in each of the team’s past 3 road games and the Cleveland offense would never be described as “explosive”, as they’ve produced 30 points or more just once all season and have averaged a paltry 16.7 points per game over their last 4 contests. Plus, the Browns are going with rookie Johnny Manziel at quarterback, who will be making the first start of his NFL career. Facing a tough Cincinnati team that’s in desperate need of a win is certainly a difficult situation for the rookie, so sharp bettors will surely be avoiding the Browns this week.
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. On paper, these teams have a lot of similarities. They both like to run the ball more than pass the ball, they both have defenses that are better in the secondary than they are up front, and they’ve both exceeded expectations this season (particularly the Browns). How, then, will these teams match up once they take the field? We’d be left to wonder, except… these teams met just over a month ago, back in Week 10, and it wasn’t even competitive. The Browns walked away with a 24-3 win that night and, frankly, it could have been worse. Now here we are again, same teams but in Cleveland this time, and people are still trying to make a case for the Bengals. Block out the noise: we know what we saw. Back the better team.
2. The Browns have an excellent offensive line that absolutely mauled the Cincinnati defensive front the last time these teams met, enabling tailbacks Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell, and Ben Tate to combine for 169 rushing yards. There’s no reason to expect anything different this week, especially when you consider that the Bengals surrendered a staggering 193 rushing yards (and 42 points) in a loss to Pittsburgh last week.
3. Cleveland has been on the verge of brilliance over the past few weeks, there’s just been one missing link: quality play from the quarterback position. They may have fixed that problem now, as Brian Hoyer has been handed a clipboard and front-row seat to watch Johnny Football, one of the most decorated college football players in recent memory, make his NFL debut. Manziel came into the game two weeks ago against Buffalo and led the team to their only touchdown drive, which made all involved understandably curious about what the Browns offense would look like with him at the helm. His improvisational playmaking ability may be just what this Cleveland offense has been missing.
Prediction
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