136 POINTS PROFIT AND FOUR NAPS OUT OF FIVE: Daqman yesterday landed his double, with the nap, Alcaeus (WON 15-8), and Geoffrey Chaucer (WON 4-7) to bring his profit to 136 points from five winning days out of six. His naps sequence is:
WON 6-4 Grandeur
WON 15-8 Caucus
3rd 11-4 Lanansaak
WON 11-8 Vorda
WON 15-8 Alcaeus
COUNTDOWN TO THE ARC: Starting today, Daqman’s on the trail of his third consecutive big-race win. His target is the Arc next Sunday, following his bets in this column the last two Saturdays on Highland Colori (WON 20-1) in the Ayr Gold Cup and Educate (WON 8-1) in the Cambridgeshire.
LEADING LIGHTS MATCHED: Each day until Friday, Daqman will match two or more Longchamp contenders, rating each horse up to 10 for the Arc, with his daily bets appearing below the column. He starts with the latecomers to the party, Leading Light and Intello.
COUNTDOWN TO THE ARC: LEADING LIGHT 8, INTELLO 6
The world’s leading layers are wary of Light. While most bookmakers are 20-1 or so Leading Light, the Leger winner, Ladbrokes are only 12-1, wisely worried to lay the late-season improver.
Leading Light has had only six races in his life, with a less-than formidable CV, despite four wins in a row, until that day at Doncaster little more than a fortnight ago.
Ladbrokes will know, though few in the Press seem to have caught on to it, that this is a deceptively good horse for combined reasons: he is a layabout at home – lazy and laid back – and that means he has not been on the oche for the big bull’s-eye target races.
He might have been a Derby horse – any amount of hindsight is possible – but Ballydoyle has admitted that they were fooled, and kept his sights lowered to the third rung from the top of the ladder, Group 3, albeit at Royal Ascot.
Despite the big field, he was 5-4 favourite for the Queen’s Vase, but what a price that looks now! Leading Light trotted up over the two miles, and that prompted the rethink.
Could he now drop back in trip and recoup some of the Classic ground lost? He could and he did, with a power drive in the St Leger, slamming the Oaks winner, Talent, and the Epsom Derby placed horses, Galileo Rock and Libertarian.
Could he, should he, now attempt the Arc? He’ll have to recoup the spending money again, by which I mean the 100,000euros supplementary-entry fee!
The Queen’s Vase and St Leger double is a strange route to the Longchamp title but his earlier win this season, from the front, in the 1m 2f Gallinule Stakes at The Curragh in the Spring, suggests that the Arc is a must. Speed, power, the ability to go with the pace.. what more do you want?
Intello, I’m not so keen on. I had hoped to see him in the Champion Stakes (October 19), and no doubt Ascot had those hopes, too.
Though Moonlight Cloud’s turn of foot was too potent for Intello over a mile in the Jacques Le Marois at Deauville, the French Derby winner is still the one to beat at 1m 2f.
But at 1m 4f? I think it’s a dream, and it’s a dream that’s happening because it’s the only one the Wertheimer-Fabre team have left for the Arc this year.
I’ve deliberately put Intello alongside Leading Light in my Arc picture. On the grounds of a power drive down that Longchamp straight, can you see him beating Leading Light?
He might if the pace is slow. He might if Leading Light gets a wide draw. But ‘might’ is possibility and anything might happen. Known form gives us probability, the odds that something is likely to happen. And Leading Light is the likely lad.
DAQMAN’S MATCH VERDICT: Leading Light 8, Intello 6. OFFICIAL RATINGS: Intello (approx.) 121, Leading Light 118
TODAY’S RACING
There are a lot of songs about Mondays.
The Boomtown Rats didn’t like them, The Bangles thought they were Manic and for older readers the Mamas & The Papas couldn’t think of anything more original to say about them than Monday, Monday.
Perhaps the best word is the new and trendy…. meh. (and no, I’m not THAT young). It (allegedly) describes a state of mind as being indifferent.
As usual we are spoilt for choice over the weekend and are left to diet midweek after the banquet.
Manatee Bay likes Mondays. He won here seven days ago and the David Nicholls trained runner is back over course and distance to try and follow-up in the opener at Hamilton.
He won smoothly in a Grade 5 last week – but Dandy has opted to DROP him in class today for this class 6. He picks up a 6lb penalty for the win but this is more than offset by the 7lb claim from useful apprentice Jordan Nason.
Sorry for the supporters of the old boy Beckermet is the 3.10 but I have to be against him at current BETDAQ odds of around 2.65. This, incredibly, is his 148th race but crucially he goes best with some give in the ground and with Bunce and Song Of Parkes in particular running for us it has to be the lay button that gets pressed.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win (nap) Manatee Bay (2.10 Hamilton)
LAY 10pts BECKERMET (3.10 Hamilton)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also
log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
