CRACKSMAN PULLED OUT OF THE DANTE: Derby plunge Crystal Ocean lost his main rival for the Dante when Cracksman was withdrawn this morning. But there were such doubts about Crystal Ocean that he’s not even favourite at York. Daqman tries to unravel the mysteries.
PLAY OUTSIDERS ON THE SOFT GROUND: Daqman plays outsiders again today because of the state of the ground. He leads Pricewise 23-6, and is 50 points ahead of him on a profit and loss basis.
NO CRYSTAL BALL: ONLY TENNERS
There is no crystal ball! Instead you have to arm yourself with stats, facts and commonsense, when you assess today’s Dante Stakes and – consequent upon it – the Derby.
The trial that transcends all others arrives at York today in strange circumstances, not least that connections of the main protagonists, Cracksman and Crystal Ocean, were putting you off like mad.
Of Crystal Ocean, trainer Sir Michael Stoute says: ‘The Derby gamble is only tenners. He’s being brought along steadily and it‘s doubtful he’s a Derby horse.’
Strange, too, that some were arguing that the ground was not that bad, including John Gosden (‘there’s a good covering of long grass’) .
But all races were slow at York yesterday, two by as much as 11.6 and 12.9 seconds, and there were winners at 25-1, 20-1, 12- and 10-1), and some even odder individual results.
A favourite that ‘loves the ground’ and finished last; a top sprinter said to hate the ground, drifted like a dog on a raft and finished second.
And this morning? Gosden pulled out his Dante hope, Cracksman, AND his ‘good thing’, So Mi Dar (2.55).
Do we assume that, on reflection, and on checking her out this morning, he now regrets running Shutter Speed in yesterday’s Musidora? That would be my guess.
BETDAQ’S BEST: IT’S CRYSTAL CLEAR
2.20 York So do you follow the hype and the bookmakers’ kites? I can tell you that, if you think you ought to be with Crystal Ocean for Epsom, the best offers you will get are on BETDAQ (15.0 this morning against 10-1 and 12-1 with bookies).
And the best offers for his Dante trial? BETDAQ again, with 7.4 showing in the orange AFTER Cracksman’s withdrawal, but almost half the price at 7-2 with nine fixed-odds firms.
Maybe the ground is ‘York soft’. In the good old bad old days, I was warned by pro-punter Alex Bird: ‘To be safe, back only York-soft winners on soft ground at York. The going there is a law unto itself.’
I shall try that in the very first race. Union Rose at 30.0 BETDAQ offers – all the way from Welsh Wales – is the only one in this who has won before over this CD at York on soft ground.
Top of the Racing Post base ratings for the race, but revised downwards in their future ratings this morning, Union Rose has a good jockey booking in Oisin Murphy, and a low draw. There were no high-stall winners all day yesterday. York Tuesday results by draw were: 5, 8, 9, 1, 6, 5, 10.
Soft-ground winner with a smart boy taking off 7lb, Justice Good, from stall 1, is 16.0 on BETDAQ, but as low as 11-1 with some bookies. Yet again, BETDAQ is the best morning offer.
Poyle Vinnie, is well drawn, from a stable in peak form, ran well at Newmarket on the last day, and would like even more rain, but has York form of 000.
If you fancy him at 14-1 with bookies, you should have been on at the 18.0 with BETDAQ this morning.
The early-mouse favourite, Duke Of Firenze, took this last year on firm ground. He’s 5lb higher now on ‘soft’ and, though he’s won on soft, favourites ‘never’ win this and he is top weight in stall 11.
THE GROUND WILL SUIT BENBATL
3.30 York (Dante Stakes) Those of us in this column who are on Enable for the Oaks at 25-1 were delighted to see her stablemate Shutter Speed score despite the ground yesterday and to hear that the daughter of Photographic goes to France for the Prix de Diane, leaving Epsom for us. All working out to Plan A.
But those of us in this column who took 10-1 Cliffs of Moher for the Derby were quaking after the reports of ‘sustained money’ for Crystal Ocean.
The Stoute colt is related only to Group-2 winners in Europe but must have done something spectacular at home to warrant the plunge, we thought, after no more than a Nottingham maiden success.
The second horse home at Colwick Park has won since and the third, Nathan, will be a short price for a Newbury maiden tomorrow.
My worries about Crystal Ocean were based less on gossip than on his stablemate Mirage Dancer having run on so well in the Dee Stakes that he got within striking distance of Cliffs Of Moher.
Ballydoyle (Exemplar) and Godolphin (Wolf Country) have already won trials, and we would normally assume that they, too, are top notchers or, since connections have both had trial winners already, are they scouts on a look-see today?
David Elsworth who has trained Swiss Diva, Swiss Franc and Swiss Dream out of the dam Swiss Lake now has her son, Swiss Storm, sired by Frankel. Is this the special Frankel we’ve been waiting for?
Interesting that Swiss Storm had Alfawaris three lengths third in his Newbury maiden last backend before that one was four lengths off Cracksman in his.
Benbatl was new favourite this morning after Cracksman came out, following his Craven Stakes third just behind French Guineas placed Rivet.
Benbatl should have no problem with the ground as the son of Dubawi out of a mare by soft-ground sire Selkirk.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points)
2.20 YORK
BET 2pts win and place JUSTICE GOOD
BET 1.75pts win and place POYLE VINNIE
BET 1pt win and place UNION ROSE
3.30 YORK
BET 8.8pts win (nap) BENBATL
BET 2pts win and place SWISS STORM
4.05 YORK
BET 3pts win DONNCHA
BET 2.5pts win and place VICTORY BOND
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
