TOPHAM ANGEL FOR A FUTURE NATIONAL: Friday 13th, and subsequent Grand National winners Bindaree and Montys Pass were both beaten in the Topham Trophy. What’s going to win it this afternoon (and what’s going to be a future National winner)? Here are Daqman’s headlines for Day 2 of the Aintree Festival:
TEAM TIZZARD TO STORM HOME
IRISH COULD MAKE AN IMPACT
ESCAPE BY BACKING THE TWO
MELLING? GO WITH THE FLOS
ANGEL’S NATIONAL POTENTIAL
ROK SOLID BUT 10.5 ON BETDAQ
DAQMAN 50 POINTS UP ON PRICEWISE: Daqman leads Pricewise 10-2 after one apiece yesterday, with Daqman 50 points clear (Daqman +31.00, Pricewise –18.75) to a single unit on each of their selections at SP.
TEAM TIZZARD TO STORM HOME
1.45 Aintree Nicky Henderson’s three winners of this Grade-3 hurdle in the last five years either swerved Cheltenham, or didn’t really have a race (I’m thinking of his winner last year, which reached only the second flight at the festival).
But both Henderson’s here – Lough Derg Spirit and Jenkins – were at Cheltenham; in fact, the top five in the market were. And that’s another thing: there was no winning favourite in the decade and seven of the last eight to score were at double-figure odds SP.
All this is partly why I’m attracted to Storm Home, who has shown the speed to win twice at around 2m in lower class but is bred for 3m and steps up in class and trip here with Team Tizzard cock-a-hoop after returning Finian’s Oscar to top form yesterday.
Storm Home has two Grade-1 entries in champion-novice races at the Punchestown Festival, the 2m and the 2m 4f.
On collateral form through Remiluc, Landin has the beating of some of the market leaders. I took 12.0 Storm Home and 15.0 Landin.
IRISH COULD MAKE AN IMPACT
2.20 Aintree The Tizzards again have a big chance in this one, Vision Des Flos dropping back in trip after looking a picture at Cheltenham behind two aces in Samcro and Black Op.
Five winners in eight years in this for Nicky Henderson, and the last three – My Tent Or Yours, Josses Hill and Buveur d’Air – came on here from finishing in the first two at Cheltenham.
Style De Garde, his Fred Winter runner-up a month ago, failed to get a boost at Aintree yesterday from the horse just behind him at Cheltenham, Nube Negra. Since Nicky won yesterday’s race with We Have A Dream, who cares!
But the negative for Style De Garde is that he’s only four and this has been won nine years out of 10 by a horse aged five or six.
The market says they’ll all have to go to beat Global Citizen, who swerved Cheltenham, but was impressive at Kempton. I just worry that he beat nothing well that day.
Third and fourth have won since but only at class-4 level. The runner-up, Scarlet Dragon? Well he takes Global Citizen on again today, and Alan King is bullish about turning the tables.
As well as Vision des Flos (BETDAQ 5.4), I rate Impact Factor (13.0), who represents the top Irish novice form of Getabird and Hardline. He’s never been out of the first three.
ESCAPE BY BACKING THE TWO
2.50 Aintree (Mildmay Novices Chase) A great race for future stars over the years. Even so, who would have guessed that the last two winners, Native River and Might Bite, would fight out the finish of last month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup?
That was Tizzard v Henderson, which seems to be a feature today. So it is again in this Mildmay, with Nicky’s JLT runner-up Terrefort tackled by Colin’s RSA third, Elegant Escape.
Black Corton has wilted after a long season and Ms Parfois, who likes to race in the first two, may last out into the frame but is hard to back for win purposes.
Coo Star Sivola has a hard race at Cheltenhm and is up 15lb from the start of this hat-trick bid. Mia’s Storm won’t like the ground.
In these circumstances, it seems plausible to join the battle between Terrefort (4.9) and Elegant Escape (6.6), and back both.
MELLING? GO WITH THE FLOS!
3.25 Aintree (Melling Chase) Paul Nicholls, who last won this with Master Minded, runs two horses which I marked down as Fortune Cookies at the start of the season, Politologue and Le Prezien.
But his Aintree runners yesterday were beaten a grand total of 156 lengths. They all look as if they’re running for next season!
Min has won only a minor race at this trip, and yesterday’s heroes, now aged 10 and 11, Simply Ned and Gods Own, figured in the frame with him at Leopa rdstown before Altior walked all over him at Cheltenham. I’m yet to be convinced.
Famous last words, but would he have won the Ryanair and demolished the mighty Un de Sceaux and Cloudy Dream, who had run up to the Gold Cup winner at Newbury? Balko Des Flos did.
ANGEL’S NATIONAL POTENTIAL
4.05 Aintree (Topham Chase) Nicky Henderson, who has had three in a row (2013-15) in this, yet can never win the Na ional over these fences, saddles O O Seven.
I said earlier in the week that his fans might want licence to kill, after he’s let them down so many times, including only fourth in this race a year ago behind Ultragold (Bouvreuil 10th).
It’s a 5lb worse race this year which had put top of the English runners in a 30-strong field but there was sustained money last night for Theatre Territory (9.6 on BETDAQ as I write) and Flying Angel also came in, until settling at 13.0
I warned earlier in the week that Flying Angel has been laid out for this, after dropping 10lb in the handicap, even lower than his mark when he won yesterday’s Manifesto at the meeting a year ago.
After that Manifesto, trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies said: He’s a really exciting horse; he’s got everything and will go to the top next year.’’
Things haven’t gone quite that well, as his recent wind op may help to explain, but there’s not much quality here and these fences could be the making of him.
Flying Angel is from the family of Call It A Day, third and sixth in consecutive Grand Nationals.
I particularly remember his third to Bobbyjo for ‘Duke’ Nicholson in 1999. Had he won, you wouldn’t be reading this..
ROK SOLID BUT 10.5 ON BETDAQ
4.40 Aintree (Sefton Novices Hurdle) When At Fisher’s Cross (2013) won this he was landing his sixth successive win. Another top-class winner of the race was a certain Thistlecrack (2015). Say no more.
A 10.5 BETDAQ offer today, Roksana filled my wallet at Newbury three weeks back and Dan Skelton said ‘that’s it for the season’, expecting ‘a hell of a horse’ next term.
She must have been working well since for him to change his mind and go for this one today, though I can’t find any other winner of the Seton getting the 7lb sex allowance.
Nicky Henderson’s trio are the first three in the betting – Santini, Ok Corral and Chef Des Obeaux – making it impossible to back the yard or even save on Roksana. Sorry Nicky but I hope you lose the gunfight with your Ok Corral.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Aintree (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.5pts win and place STORM HOME
BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.5pts win and place LANDIN
2.20 Aintree (win 20)
BET 4.5pts win VISION DES FLOS
BET 1.5pts win and place IMPACT FACTOR
2.50 Aintree (win 20)
BET 5pts win TERREFORT
BET 3.5pts win ELEGANT ESCAPE
3.25 Aintree (win 30)
BET 14pts win (nap) BALKO DES FLOS
4.05 Aintree (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 4pts win and place FLYING ANGEL
BET (win 30) 2pts win and placed BALLYALTON
4.40 Aintree (win 20)
BET 2pts win and place ROKSANA
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