ASCOT LOSERS CAN SCORE: Daqman fancies Royal Ascot tried two-year-olds Nafaqa and Adaay to bounce back, dropped in class among five of the six English meetings he bets at today.
HE’S THE SATURDAY KING: Daqman, 17 bankers up out of 23, and 49-17 in front of Pricewise in his feature-race value challenge, is back for more tomorrow. Don’t miss his analysis.
MOORE SHOULD BLOOM FOR STOUTE
2.00 Newbury Barry Hills is in tremendous form, since coming out of retirement. The results for his July runners which have started at 8-1 or shorter are 113410213102.
His Sir Percy colt, Nafaqa, was pitched straight into the Chesham at Royal Ascot, unraced but finishing close up fourth.
Nafaqa will be my saver as I look for something new to beat him; the last four winners of this have all been first-timers and they always say of juveniles: second time out is the real test.
I shall have an early-mouse pound on Dissolution, a son of New Approach, far and away the best two-years-old sire in the race: 14.0 on BETDAQ.
2.55 Nottingham Stalls 2, 2, 1 and 2 have won this in the four years out of the last six that this race was run on a sound surface, and the trainer of the 5.6 offer Le Laitier (stall 1, Kieren Fallon booked) is currently three wins from his last four starters.
3.40 Newbury (Rose Bowl) Favourites rarely win this (1-10), even though the usual suspects take it year on year. Team Hannon is 1121240 and overdue another success.
The big ‘if’ about the favourite here is whether Limato can reproduce his exciting Polytrack form switched to turf. He has to beat the Coventry Stakes eighth Adaay (two behind him have been placed in Group 3 since) and Windsor Castle sixth, Cotai Glory, a winner at Bath recently.
The Hannon hope, Step To The Shears, has to improve for this company but is a tenacious front-runner. I’ll take Adaay to bounce back.
3.05 Newbury/4.45 Newbury Sea The Bloom and Enobled, both for Sir Michael Stoute. are probably best of Ryan Moore’s 10 rides today.
Taking 3.45 and 4.60 on BETDAQ respectively, I shall assume that he gets one at least, betting stop at a winner, with a small-stakes double. Enobled is so staked that a win, if the bet is required, will provide my usual win-20 profit the losing stake on Sea The Bloom and the one point from the double.
6.50 Newmarket The consistent Baltic Brave had Ryan Moore booked early in the week. The 4.1 favourite as I write, he may have most to fear from the unexposed Zain Empire, a tasty 7.6 on BETDAQ in the early-mouse orange.
Zain Empire was marked ‘an exciting recruit’ by racereaders when making a winning debut at Carlisle for sprint-specialist-trainer Robert Cowell.
7.20 Newmarket Young horses of three and four have always won this if they’ve had a decent contender, and one of the three-year-olds ought to win today against horses of twice their age and more.
It won’t be Back On Baileys, officially 57lb behind Strategical, who returned to action at Sandown, ring rusty 10 months after completing a summer hat-trick last season.
Simple Magic finished in front of Strategical that day and plummets in class after attempting two Group 3s and two Listeds.
She could be good enough against the sluggish Move In Time, and Swiss Cross who has had his win: I took 3.2 on BETDAQ this morning.
7.30 Pontefract Jamaican Bolt, Bispham Green and Jack Luey need rain; Another Wise Kid is a once-a-year winner, who has had his turn and it’s put him 6lb higher than when winning this race last year.
Zac Brown won a poor maiden; Adam’s Ale is raised in class off his highest mark; Oldjoesaid went close last time and it’s hard to fancy him putting two runs together at the age of 10.
So, for me, it rests between Normal Equilibrium (down to his winning mark) and Fitz Flyer, lowered 6lb from his opening mark of the season. At 9.0 and 8.2 respectively, they serve for a hot dutch.
7.40 Hamilton (Scottish Stewards Cup) The usual suspects win this – Fahey, Nicholls, Easterby, Johnston – but often with outsiders (14-1 twice, 20-1 and 22-1 in the last five seasons).
You need to be one side or the other, with stalls 1, 2, 14, 15 winning in the four renewals since 2009, and you need something placed at least at this class-2 level.
Mass Rally has a row of ‘duck-eggs’ but, in fact, won his last race in this grade and has not been disgraced in Group-2 title heats with cut in the ground. He’ll want some substance to the forecast showers.
Stablemate Spinatrix is also dropping back from the Pattern. Hitchens did that at Chester but was hampered soon after the start and could be dangerous now, dropped 12lb since the beginning of the season.
Victoire De Lyphar is high in the handicap, as is Barkston Ash, who can’t beat Fast Shot on Ripon form.
Hopes N Dreams is 111 on today’s course in the last year, and is preferred by Graham Lee to his recent winning ride for Richard Fahey, Tatlisu.
I took Mass Rally (stall 14) from the high side and Hopes N Dreams (gate 2) from the low stalls, at 9.4 and 8.6 respectively on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Bets staked to win 20pts, unless otherwise stated)
BET 1.5pts win and place DISSOLUTION and 1.6pts win (stakes saver) NAFAQA (2.00 Newbury)
BET 4pts win LE LAITIER (2.55 Nottingham)
BET 8pts wins SEA THE BLOOM (3.05 Newbury), if lose 8pts win ENOBLED (4.45 Newbury) and 1pt win double the two.
BET 11pts win (nap) ADAAY (3.40 Newbury)
BET 6.5pts win BALTIC BRAVE and 3pts win ZAIN EMPIRE (6.50 Newmarket)
BET 6.25pts win SIMPLE MAGIC (7.20 Newmarket)
BET 2.7pts win FITZ FLYER and 2.5pts win NORMAL EQUILIBRIUM (7.30 Pontefract)
BET 2.4pts win on each HOPES N DREAMS and MASS RALLY (7.40 Hamilton)
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