DAQMAN TRIES TO LAND A HAT-TRICK OF LAYS: Daqman had two lays out of two at Wincanton yesterday and bids for the hat-trick at Chepstow today, where he also reckons a 3.4 offer deserves a supernap against aged opposition.
2.10 Chepstow: LAY the favourite, BACK Star stayer
3.20 Chepstow: SUPERNAP at 3.4 in BETDAQ orange
PIPE STABLE IS ON THE SLIDE
2.10 Chepstow David Pipe might win with morning-favourite Ramses De Teillee in this novices’ chase, but you couldn’t bet on it. Just the odd one in the yard has kept its form but most are in free fall.
Ramses De Teillee’s 15lb punishment for winning over this CD in November seemed to cost him the contest in a small field at Fontwell on the last day, albeit the winner went on to better things.
He has age on his side but not stable form. The Racing Post has now marked its online card for this meeting to suggest that Pipe is getting only 13% out of his horses. Some 50% of his runners are failing to finish.
He’s on only a 7% strike rate in the last fortnight. His last six starters have finished PP3PP0, and the two who completed were beaten a total of 65 lengths.
There was a Pipe revival before Christmas but the season’s overall strike rate is down from 20% in 2014-15 (when he had 116 winners) to a modest 8% for the current campaign, with just 20 winners in 2017-18 from 253 runners so far.
Offered at 2.8 behind the 2.3 favourite, Impulsive Star, now in cheekpieces, is a dour stayer who led at several stages of the race at Catterick on New Year’s Day. If there is a flaw in Ramses’ fitness, he is the one to find it out.
If Sam Waley-Cohen knows only half the Pipe story, he will make this a severe test. Under the race conditions, and with Sam’s 3lb claim, Star is 6lb well in with Ramses De Teillee.
KASBAH IN SAME STALL FOR REPEAT
2.30 Lingfield Quality AW race of the day is this class-2 sprint on Polytrack, with last year’s winner, Kasbah, back for more, after being placed for the second year running in the same CD prep for this just six days ago.
He is coincidentally drawn one again, as he was 12 months back. And, though he’s a pound higher in the ratings off 91, he carries 7lb less weight in a potentially stronger field.
The weights are depressed by Kachy (105) and Udontdodou (102), with Udontdodou going for a hat-trick.
Udontdodou is four out of six on AW but all success has been at Chelmsford and his turf form is mainly on the soft.
Human Nature, Zac Brown (held by Kasbah) and Shamsaya (held by Show Stealer on these terms) look outclassed but Show Stealer is weighted to close down Udontdodou on September form and is already a Lingfield CD scorer.
The entire Kachy, fourth in the Palace House last Spring, is a cut above these on his best form but hasn’t won for 20 months and will have to use his speed early from the outside stall 9.
In a fascinating contest, Kasbah (6.8 offers), who has clearly been trained especially for the race, has the edges of fitness, draw and weight – gets a stone from Kachy – and has experience of the track over Udontdodou.
We will know today whether Richard Guest’s plans to take Udontdodou to America are justified, because he must improve again today on the faster surface he can expect over there.
Udontdodou is being prepared for a 200,000-dollar sprint at Santa Anita two weeks tomorrow.
GREYED.. BUT IN YOUNGER GRADE!
3.20 Chepstow Two small-field Fontwell wins in the mud have cost 3.4 BETDAQ offer Greyed A an 11lb rise but he gets EIGHT years from Paddy The Oscar.
Yet, despite being 15 now, Paddy has never been out of the first five in 10 races since last February, winning once and second five times. What a hero!
Back To The Thatch is now racing close to his hurdles mark, so we’re not seeing a lot of improvement, despite his six years.
But it’s clear that only Greyed A and Back To The Thatch have age on their side, and potential for improvement, in a race where more than half the field are of a double-figure age, some half Thatch’s years.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 11pts win IMPULSIVE STAR (2.10 Chepstow)
BET 3.5pts win and place KASBAH (2.30 Lingfield)
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win GREYED A (3.20 Chepstow)
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