REASON FOR NAPPING JAMIE SPENCER: Daqman finds that Jamie Spencer is picking up many a ‘job’ ride, and naps Line Of Reason at Doncaster today.
KEEP ‘MAJOR’ IN MIND FOR THE LOCKINGE: Trumpet Major could add to Richard Hannon’s Sandown Mile successes and afterwards head for the Lockinge at Newbury in May.
THE DAQMAN MANIFESTO: Completing the views he will express in next week’s Daqman Manifesto, our man looks at punter-friendly betting, where the market gives you an edge. On BETDAQ, of course.
Pull up your chair and come on in to the comfort zone! If you don’t already know it, BETDAQ offers you the backbone of value betting: a list of offers on each race with the lowest overrounds in the business, often down to a level playing-field.
That means the apparent take-out on each race – how much the total percentage probability adds up to more than 100– is so low that punters are virtually getting back what they put in. A fair exchange, indeed!
A level 100% or so – even an underround in the 90s – often happens on BETDAQ. I called up Sandown this morning at 8 a.m., and the lists in the orange on four of the races added up to 104%, 107, 105 and 108. Compare that with yesterday’s take-outs by the bookies of up to 153% (at Punchestown). Half your money’s gone before the race is run!
The Sandown figures are not a flash in the pan, not an ephemeral shoring-up by bookies to make a race look good for a moment in time.
The 3.15 Classic Trial at Sandown was 105% on BETDAQ last night at 8 o’clock. This morning at 8 a.m., it was 102%.
At the Sandown offers, it means – literally – that, if you feel you can knock out one of the shorter-priced horses, you could back every other runner in the race and make money.
Searching out these ‘knock-outs’ will be part of the Daqman Manifesto, when it all comes together next week.
If, for example, you remove from the Classic Trial the second favourite Eye Of The Storm, who represents 20% of the market, you are betting 100-82 as the list stands at the time of writing. So check out every race, and remove the weak horses.
1.40 Sandown This one was interesting this morning. I was watching the swift adjustment on BETDAQ after a non-runner has been declared.
When Lyric Ace was withdrawn, the orange inevitable soared to around 114%. But is soon was 111% and falling.
Every time there’s been a double-figure field for this race, stall 1 has won it! First-time-out New Fforest has the plum draw this time for Andrew Balding. And, when Balding won this race in 2011 with Night Carnation, he was first time out.. from the one stall!
New Fforest and Miss Diva raced together in the pattern last year behind Rosdhu Queen, who’s been in the frame in a Group 3 this month.
Remember, this is a 3-y-o handicap. You have no idea which of these has trained on, excepting those who’ve already been seen back, some of them winners.
Shooting at the target with one eye-patch, I would take New Fforest against the field, because BETDAQ gives me 8.4 which absorbs the risk.
For lays, or simply to knock the percentage down to below the hundred, I would oppose the high-drawn horses though I think you’ll find that punters are alive to the stalls bias at Sandown and you won’t find high-drawn horses below 10-1, so you’ll be knocking bits off not huge chunks.
2.10 Sandown (Esher Cup) Clearly, you need to be able to knock out a short-priced runner, if you want to be left with the race at your mercy. But, yet again here, you have a second-season handicap, and three of the runners you don’t know about, since they reappear today.
Normally my attitude would be that Fehaydi is too short at the 2.93 I see this morning, if only because those three pose the threat of the unknown.
But he certainly looks the part on form, fifth in the Tattersalls Millions Trophy at the Craven Meeting when squeezed for room. The first four home in that race are all in the Dante, the runner-up being quoted for the Derby.
Red Avenger also ran in a big field at Newmarket and won it and, although this is his reappearance, I find that those racing well at the backend of the previous season are more likely to train on than those who were precocious at this time last year and were ‘used up’ in the summer as youngsters.
Another view of races which have a small percentage overround is that it enables you to ‘borrow’ from this benefit and back more than one horse in the race. Dutching at the front of the market would be too much of a ‘borrow’ – the two bets might add up to odds on – so I shall back one and have a small-stakes saver on the other.
Fehaydi is no good thing so I shall take 4.7 Red Avenger to win me 20 points but take out insurance by ‘borrowing’ 2.7 points of that as cover on Feyhadi.
2.45 Sandown Mile Richard Hannon’s form figures in this are 1111110, and he gives himself two chances today.
Libranno’s the one who’s already won a Group 2 but he was only fifth in this race last year and Richard Hughes prefers Trumpet Major.
Last year’s Craven winner, he was backed down to 8-1 for the 2,000 Guineas and got within three or four lengths of Camelot in the first Classic, though could never win above Group-3 level all season.
Farraaj won the Winter Derby at Lingfield this Spring (what Spring?), having returned to form in November after a back injury. He’d been third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile the year before so was thought at least Group 2.
It’s a fascinating race, with a super-value 103% ‘book’ of offers in the orange. For me the angle is to oppose both six-year-olds.
Yes, Penitent won it last year at that age but that was a one-off for this race. Highland Knight’s German Group-2 and Stand My Ground’s Doncaster mile third don’t look up to this level, yet they are third and fourth in the betting and take out 30%.
I think the front of the market looks good. Another way of looking at it is this: can you see either Farraaj or Trumpet Major winning the Lockinge? That’s sure to be their next destination and my answer would be: Yes, why not.
This time I’ll take the favourite (because of Hannon’s amazing record in the race) and back Trumpet Major to win 20 points, with a stakes saver on Farraaj.
3.15 Sandown Classic Trial Once upon a time, this was the Derby trial to follow: Troy, Henbit and Shergar won it and then took the Derby in consecutive years.
One or two recent winners– remember Centennial? – have shaken the Derby market but not the race itself; in fact, Centennial ultimately swerved Epsom for the Curragh but was no Irish Derby winner either.
Yes, this and the next two races are all for three-year-olds and 15 of the total of 22 runners in the three races have not been seen this year . oops!
Thank goodness for the BETDAQ punter-friendly lists of 102, 107 and 113%.
Why so big at 113? Well, we’ve just lost a front runner in the betting at the time of writing (just my luck) but the market is sure to settle down during the morning.
What will this race tell us about the Derby? Well, the knock-on effect (collateral form) of a good run by Irish raider Sugar Boy would boost the (9.8 on BETDAQ) Epsom chances of Aidan O’Brien’s Battle Of Marengo, who beat Prendergast’s ‘Boy’ fair and square at Leopardstown, albeit on the soft.
O’Brien himself runs Eye Of The Storm today, but Sir Henry Cecil, whose three-year-olds have taken a flyer this Spring (ok, it really is Spring now), has Al Waab as favourite, as I write.
The Solario winner Fantastic Moon, and another Irish raider, Galileo Rock, makes for potentially a better trial than usual.
If we lop off the ‘rags’, Woodstock and Libertarian, we have a 100-90 book. In other words, whatever choice you make from the front of the market, you’re getting value for money.
4.45 Doncaster I shall proceed through the day, taking out potential losers and betting within the super-value book that’s left to me. If a race is already paying me 100 for an investment of less than 110, and I can remove another 30% of probability, then I am in the glow of betting orange.
For instance, in this 4.45, I won’t want to know horses trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam, Bryan Smart and Tim Easterby, who have very poor stable form at Donny. In any case, I thought this Line Of Reason worth following.
And Jamie Spencer is hunting out the jobs as though he’s scheming for the championship this year.
He’s won in the last few days for Rod Millman, Don Cantillon, Andrew Balding and Richard Fahey. Today he rides for Charles Hills, Ed Dunlop and David Simcock.
Apart from Line Of Reason, I fancy him on Seamless (3.35) in a race of maidens where three-year-olds are getting a stone and more from their elders.
PUNCHESTOWN: Another point I’m making in my manifesto is: bet where you win, and where you win well, double and treble your stakes. Punchestown has never been my favourite meeting.
It’s like this: the Christmas party is Cheltenham, New Year is Aintree. Then they want you to come back for Twelfth Night and do it all again at Punchestown.
But look what’s happened to me? My horses to follow Sir Des Champs and Arvika Ligeonniere have won there this week. So I must today get the old list out again and support Vesper Bell (4.55) and Pont Alexandre (6.05).
BET 2.7pts win NEW FFOREST (1.40 Sandown)
BET 5.4pts win RED AVENGER and 2.7pts win (stakes saver) FEHAYDI (2.10 Sandown)
BET 8pts win TRUMPET MAJOR and 2.4pts win (stakes saver) FARRAAJ (2.45 Sandown)
BET 6.6pts win SEAMLESS (3.35 Doncaster)
BET 7.2pts win (nap) LINE OF REASON (4.45 Doncaster)
BET 2.7pts win VESPER BELL (4.55 Punchestown) and on DAQ MULTIPLES 2pts win double the same one with PONT ALEXANDRE (6.05 Punchestown)
DAQMAN TARGETS: With the plethora of three-year-old races at Sandown, this can only be a standard day. Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, and he needs two winners to finish in front on the day.
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