WHY DAQMAN IS AHEAD OF THE GAME AT DUNDALK: Daqman has the distinction of having already napped an Aidan O’Brien winner this year: United Front (WON 5-6) at Dundalk on February 20, despite competition from English racing at the time. Daqman checks out the O’Brien plans and has another nap at Dundalk this afternoon, though this time there is nowhere else to go!
HOW DAQMAN FINISHED THE ENGLISH NH SEASON:
📈 Daqman 39, Pricewise 19 (+378.48 to -136.00) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Bull’s-eye bets: 40% (+323.40 from 20-49) staked to win 50
📈 All Daily Naps 45% (+123.78 from 55-121) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Bulls-eye naps 2020: 20% (+12.50 from 1-5) (2019: 47% +249 from 8-17)
📈 Supernaps 50% (- 07.44 from 16-32) 20pt stakes at SP
📈 Fortune Cookies 41% (+08.54 from 7-17) 20pt stakes at SP
🗓️ TOMORROW Look out tomorrow for horse-by-horse analysis of Saturday’s feature race of the day at Thurles.
🗓️ NEXT WEEK The start of the Flat with winner-finding Daqman secrets.
EARLY-BIRD HOUSE OF O’BRIEN
Aidan, the early bird. One man delighted with Horse Racing Ireland’s decision to carry on is Aidan O’Brien, who has no fewer than 22 entries for Monday’s start of the Flat at Naas.
I shall be checking his acceptors with interest. But it’s his single entry so far for next weekend’s opening of the Curragh season that intrigues me.
An eight-lengths winner on the debut at the Galway Festival, Lancaster House had landed a hat-trick within six weeks, stepping up from maiden to Listed level, only to finish lame when made favourite for his first try at Group level at Leopardstown in September.
Aidan’s one entry is also Lancaster House’s sole entry: the Irish Lincolnshire off 10st 1lb topweight.
Such singular purpose about the Lincolnshire from a trainer renowned for multiple entries, which indeed he has with that 22 for Monday!
For once, I was ahead of the great man’s thinking, or at least alongside him, when I napped United Front (WON 5-6) at Dundalk on February 20.
As the form-book racereaders analysed: ‘A War Front colt who would never have been expected to be in action in February!’ Early, early Aidan!
HE’S A DARK HORSE NO MORE
⚠️ HEADS UP: O’Briens were on the scoresheet four times at the last Dundalk meeting: sons of Aidan, Joseph O’Brien (2) and Donnacha (1), and Limerick trainer Richard John O’Brien (1).
One of Joseph’s was the improving Dark Vader, who is entered twice at Naas on Monday for the start of the Flat turf season.
📊 TRAINERS (Dundalk leading trainers): Ger Lyons, 4 winners (57%); Joseph O’Brien, 14 winners (22%), then Ado McGuinness and John McConnell.
📊 JOCKEYS Very tight between Declan McDonough and Ronan Whelan (8 each but with Declan on a slightly higher strike rate); Colin Keane with six.
MUM’S THE WORD FOR FLOWER
⭕ 2.00 Dundalk Henry De Bromhead is not often seen on the Flat: five AW runners, five losers, this year, and I’d rather wait until tomorrow at Thurles to support the trainer of Honeysuckle.
In fact, Aerclub was a big surprise when he won here in November: 20-1, not ‘expected’, but responded to first-time tongue-tie. Absent 119 days since.
Gavin Cromwell has more AW runners; 12 this year but all losers just the same. So not much encouragement for Point Reyes, who’s also returning from a long absence.
Maybe the answer lies with the family O’Brien again; both Joseph and Donnacha run fillies: Joseph saddles Line Judge, with leading jockey Declan McDonogh up.
But I shall hope to land the bouquet with Flower Garland (BETDAQ 3.0), appropriate to the race name. Donnacha saddles the recent six-lengths CD winner for Anne-Marie O’Brien in the ‘Love Your Mum’ auction race.
Dad will be watching, too, with a particular interest: Flower Garland is by his Newmarket 2,000 Guineas winner, Footstepsinthesand, out of a daughter of his Irish Derby and Arc winner, Dylan Thomas. Just another family day at Dundalk, but they won’t let them all in!
WILLIE’S UNCLE IS WAY AHEAD
⭕ 3.30 Dundalk I’m reminded of the wag who had lost his money and saw a bit of irony in a race like this, an Injured Jockeys Handicap. ‘Is that what a handicap is,’ he asked; ‘when all the jockeys are injured? I’ve bet in some of those before!’
Let’s hope Willie Byrne gets away unscathed in this one. Tio Esteban plays up at the start, sometimes rears up but, despite those quirks, is one of few in the race capable of winning.
If you’re looking for quality, his 9st 12lb suggests that Tio Esteban (Uncle Stephen) is way above this field. He stays further and Willie, his Dundalk-winning jockey, can claim 7lb, so quality and opportunity!
I took 5.0 on BETDAQ that he can beat Colin Keane’s mount, Followme Followyou, who ran up to an odds-on shot of John McConnell’s at Dundalk recently.
Snag with following him is that you would have paid for 14 consecutive defeats; still a maiden and on his third trainer. What about John McConnell; he’s hot here?
John’s runner, Mere Ironmonger, won his maiden (a bumper) but nothing else. That’s always a bad sign; so are his SPs since of 16-1, 28-1, 25-1 and 66-1, not the slightest hope. And he’s on his fourth trainer!
⭕ 4.00 Dundalk Richard O’Brien and Donagh O’Connor are 2-2 when they team up and Donagh is currently 3-6 from the two last Dundalk meetings, one of them a week back for Richard on Golden Valour.
Look out for Golden Valour here next Wednesday. Meanwhile, stay with the winning duo and have a euro or two on Cautious Approach (I took 4.2 on BETDAQ).
The mare’s Dundalk form for her current stable is 1333110013 from a mile to a mile-and-a-half.
Up 6lb on her latest success but apprentice Donagh can claim back 3lb. The Wexford-born winner has a cautious approach himself, but a determined one and a lesson for us all as we grapple with the form: ‘Yesterday’s results don’t win tomorrow’s races.’
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.00 Dundalk (stake to win 10)
BET 5pts win (nap) FLOWER GARLAND
3.30 Dundalk (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win TIO ESTEBAN
4.00 Dundalk (win 10)
BET 3pts win CAUTIOUS APPROACH
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