7-2 ‘JUMPS’ WINNER PUTS DAQMAN INTO PROFIT: A confident step up in stake for the one race gave Daqman a profit on the day yesterday from Jumps Road (WON 7-2 from 4.9 to win 30 points on BETDAQ) but he admits to ‘making a pig’s ear’ of the nap, getting the form all wrong, and ending his best-bets sequence at 1112312.
HE ATTACKS THE FAVOURITES AGAIN: Daqman tells it how it is again today for the Devon Marathon – once more stepping up his stakes – and at the Future Stars meeting at Sandown. He opposes the favourites in the Exeter race.
TOMORROW: 8-1 BIG-RACE LEAD OVER PRICEWISE: He takes on the advertised betting races tomorrow with an 8-1 lead over Pricewise since he challenged the trade-paper’s pundit. Plus, of course, the advantage of a bigger margin from low-percentage offers in the BETDAQ orange!
1.45 Sandown This race has thrown up big names over the years right across the jumps spectrum: Inglis Drever (World Hurdle), See More Business (Gold Cup) and Neptune Collonges (Grand National).
Saint Roque is an old man for this race (only one winner over the age of five in the decade) and has failed to reach the frame in all his three races going right-handed.
However, he has not much mileage on the clock and is seen by the trainer as a Cheltenham and Aintree hurdles horse, a stone better than any of these, according to the official handicapper.
Beat That, who also carries a double penalty, is said to be going chasing. He could still ‘be anything’ over the sticks but beat nothing in his runaway Ascot success.
Killala Quay was being overlooked at 8.4 on BETDAQ this morning, if you recall his quite sensational romp at Aintree in June in a race of winners.
He followed up at Chepstow and was hampered when asked to take on handicappers at Cheltenham, or he might have been placed and been challenging for favouritism in this.
Oscar Fortune obviously has to be feared but McCoy has had to work hard with him to land a hat-trick in minor events, and he was not wanted in the exchanges I saw.
2.05 Exeter (Devon Marathon) As a rule, young horses don’t win grueling 4-mile marathons, and the two six-year-olds, Jayandbee and Whistling Senator, at the front of the market this morning, look vulnerable.
No horse under eight has won the Liverpool Grand National since Bogskar in 1940 and much the same applies to the races that mimic it. In the Scottish Grand National, only one six-year-old has won since 1965.
This Devon Marathon has gone to five 9-year-olds in the last decade, three aged 10 or 11, and the youngest have been seven and eight, one of each.
The fate of eight recent six-year-old runners is PU (2012), 4th (2011), 5th and PU (2009), 5th and PU (2008), 2nd of five runners (2006) and PU (2005).
Though this is a long haul, for nine years in a row lightweights (below 10st 11lb) have won only on soft-heavy ground (2006 and 2012).
Jayandbee is hardly the big improver. The handicapper has put him up only 6lb since he scored at Newton Abbot five runs ago but – as a son of Presenting out of a Strong Gale mare – he is entitled do well over a longer trip.
So, too, Whistling Senator, another Presenting, raised just 2lb for his last three placed efforts. A lot to do, 11lb higher than Jayandbee.
The one-paced Alderluck, a winner up to 3m 6f, improved for two runs in November yet was dropped 4lb. He has finished fourth in both the Surrey national at Lingfield and the Southern National at Fontwell.
But the ones I want to be on are Incentivise and Major Malarkey, hard to win with but 16lb lower than when second in the London National a year ago and 10lb below his second in the Midlands Grand National earlier in 2012.
The Major (around 8.5 on BETDAQ, as I write) has scored on all types of ground, his stable has been in good form this autumn and he’s visored for the first time.
Since his Welsh National sixth at the start of the year, Incentivise – also acts on any surface – has slid 10lb down the ratings but was a good second over 3m 5f at Cheltenham, and has had two runs back.
The Incentivise yard of Richard Lee is in good heart, with current form-figures of 13321100, and the horse is a big price this morning at offers of around 9.5 on BETDAQ.
2.20 Sandown (Future Stars Chase) These horses are said to be intermediates, a total of five races among them out of the novice stage but it’s the same old, same old, a small, still interesting field for spectators, but a duff race for punting.
The 102% total in the BETDAQ orange means that, if you have a strong view, here’s the value place to bet. You need a fair playing-field, if only because very small fields can mean a tactical race.
Harry Topper was ring rusty at Wetherby and didn’t land the knock-out punch until the last in a slow contest. His style says ‘stayer.’
Paul Nicholls has lost his way in this with 111P2F2 but Rolling Aces is probably up to the standard of his hat-trick of winners.. Nicholls is not happy with the small field, while Kim Bailey thinks the surface a concern for Harry Topper. You pays your money and you takes your choice.
3.15 Exeter Jump City, awkward at his fences, had blinkers applied at Kempton but still finished five lengths adrift of Bally Legend and is worse off at the weights today.
Since Jump City has already disposed of Domtaline and Falcon Island – and the three others are all on long losing runs – the 4.2 Bally Legend was nap value this morning on a moderate day for betting.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except 2.05 Exeter).
BET 2.7pts win (Outsider Of The Day) KILLALA QUAY and 1.4pts win (stakes saver) SAINT ROQUE (1.45 Sandown)
BET (to win 30pts) 4pts win MAJOR MALARKEY and 3.5pts win INCENTIVISE (2.05 Exeter)
BET 6.25pts win (nap) BALLY LEGEND (3.15 Exeter)
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