BETDAQ KING OF VALUE YET AGAIN: Daqman finished in front yesterday, thanks to Carrigmorna King (WON 4-1) at Wincanton, taken at 7.2 in BETDAQ-value morning offers. Today he bets at Ascot, Ffos Las and Haydock.
AND YOUR SATURDAY KING TOMORROW: Looking for back-to-back bankers, and with 11 lays in a row, Daqman is your Saturday king for tasty second days at both Ascot and Haydock tomorrow. Sunday’s big-race card is at Navan in Ireland.
You can’t go wrong with BETDAQ. As ever, morning offers yesterday were packed with value prices. Then, close to the race, you had clear signs of what would be most likely to happen.
Carrigmorna King was overpriced in the morning at 7.2, and then the exchanges near the race and the Wincanton on-course market (11-2 to 4-1) revealed strong confidence. He won.
Morning BETDAQ exchanges of around 2-1 Tante Sissi, taken by me for this column, seemed justified as she closed in to 15-8 on course but exchanges were weaker and she eased before the ‘off’ to 11-4 SP.
The writing was on the wall, and she lost, taking too strong a hold and slipping up at one of the second-circuit fences..
Rule 1: Take an early position where there is value, and that’s almost always the case on BETDAQ (Haydock’s first four races today have total percentages of 107%, 104% and 105% twice, as I write). Rule 2: Follow the race through the day if possible; certainly, watch the market near the ‘off.’
12.50 Haydock Your biggest morning headache, with so many horses always so easy to back among those punter-friendly BETDAQ percentages, is when a too-big morning price is value and when not.
Mission Complete, forecast 11-1, looks well over the betting weir at 19.5 in this race, up 13lb on his last win and with the cheekpieces left off.
Fighter Jet presents a similar scenario, drifted to 15.0 like a lonely dog on a raft, with fears of too high a handicap mark.
The morning favourite, Cyrien Star, had them all strung out in a novices’ conditional on the first of the month but such races are notoriously misleading and he’s up in trip and out of the novice class today.
Philip Hobbs admits he doesn’t really know where to go with Talkonthestreet, with the horse lacking in confidence.
It may all add up to Scots Gaelic, 8.0 on BETDAQ as I write, his Aintree run a grade higher, suggesting that this class 2 over further would be right up his street.
2.15 Ffos Las Hobbs nipped in smartly with Danandy when he was handicapped over fences 8lb lower than his hurdles mark but the win at Stratford resulted in an embarrassed handicapper penalizing him a stone.
Super Villan, with his stable currently 2-3 with chasers on this course, now attempts the same trick, also officially 8lb lower than his ‘sticks’ mark at 5.2 on BETDAQ as I write.
Wychwoods Brook and Hansupfordetroit, first and second here 12 days ago, are regular bridesmaids and only once a year winners, so look beatable.
3.15 Ascot I’ve skipped the plethora of novice events at Haydock and Ascot, but Ascot has similar punter-friendly markets, with 103, 104, 105, 106 (twice) and 107% lists of BETDAQ offers this morning, where last year’s Total SPs of the four races that correspond were 115, 116 and 117% (twice).
The Winkworth Chase is trappy, with three front-runners in the field. But I think this class-3 three-miler presents a golden opportunity for Duke Of Lucca (8.4 this morning), who will enjoy today’s drying ground.
The stable was looking further forward with him but the whole yard is buzzing and the application of first-time blinkers suggests ‘go’ today, because of this window of good ground.
3.50 Ascot Another Hobbs, Dunraven Storm, recovered from injury, will also enjoy the sounder surface today, and ran well over CD three weeks ago.
Population returns to the scene of his back-to-back bumper wins, also happier on the drying ground, with visors replacing cheekpieces as he tries to catch Discovery Bay, the pair closely matched now on Musselburgh form but with Population preferred on the stiffer Ascot course.
Brinestine goes up another 5lb tomorrow so tries to ‘cheat’ the handicapper by this quick reappearance with a penalty. I’m taking the southern stables, dutching Dunraven Storm (4.7) and Brinestine (5.7)
DAQMAN’S BETS (singles to win 20 points)
BET 2.8pts win (nap) SCOTS GAELIC (12.50 Haydock)
BET 4.6pts win SUPER VILLAN (2.15 Ffos Las)
BET 2.7pts win DUKE OF LUCCA (3.15 Ascot)
BET 5.4pts win DUNRAVEN STORM and 4pts win BRINESTINE (3.50 Ascot)
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