THEY’RE MAKING CHAMPIONS ON A DAILY BASIS AT YORK: Stradivarius for a million-pound bonus; Ten Sovereigns v Battaash. That’s just part of another great day at York, where winners are hard to back but champions are being made:
YORK DAY 3: TODAY’S HEADLINES
🔹 GOSDEN ARC FEARS ABOUT SCOTSASS
🔹 EPAULEMENT ON HIS TOES FOR THIS
🔹 STRADIVARIUS IS ONE IN A MILLION
🔹 NO THREAT TO A HANNON GIMCRACK
🔹 THE BEST CHAMPAGNE IS DUTY FREE
🔹 BIOMETRIC READY TO BOUNCE BACK
🔹 TAKING STAR TO LAND LOVE MATCH
🔹 IBERIA BETDAQ VALUE FOR A PLACE
DAQMAN’S CURRENT ACCOUNTS
Daqman 60 Pricewise 28 Daqman 437 points clear to 10pt stakes
Bull’s-eye naps (7-14 for 50% strike rate) 259 points, recommended stakes
Supernaps (18-26 for 69% strike rate) 118 points up to 20pt stakes
GOSDEN ARC FEARS ABOUT SCOTSASS
DAY-2 VERDICT: I was tearing up twice over Frankie Dettori yesterday. Firstly, the frustration of a punter’s pain as my bet of the week, a bull’s-eye nap on Vale Of Kent, makes virtually all but is beaten on the nod at 10-1.
The price was big enough for the place bet to add to the profits and take me further clear of Pricewise, even though he had a winner. And what a winner!
Mums Tipple took the Sales race so easily (11 lengths) that the crowd was as stunned at York as had been those at the Curragh when Sovereign – now considered a Cup horse – ran right away in the Irish Derby. These runaways rarely amount to much, unless called Frankel.
But his record hasn’t lasted long. His 10 Group 1 wins were equalled in majestic style by Enable yesterday, timely for me as I stuck my neck out and insisted in my column that she was the world’s best, is the world’s best.
ITV Racing grudgingly admitted it after the York procession, or maybe they were just hoarse from their hyping and crowing about Crystal Ocean. If you’re going to pick one, pick the right one!
On that note, I had also managed to get in first (with Japan) before John Gosden’s warning after Enable’s lap of honour that ‘the three-year-old colts are the biggest worry for the Arc’.
As well as Japan, Gosden was particularly concerned about ‘the French Derby colts’, clearly a classy contest this year in which Scotsass beat Persian King.
I was happy to let Enable run and enjoy it, not letting her see my 12-1 Arc voucher about Japan. If she’ll just let me explain that I’ll get better odds about her own chance on the day.. women, eh!
Our love affair goes right back to the beginning. It’s not goodbye Enable. It’s never goodbye to a great horse that just kept winning for you. If only Frankie hadn’t cried…
Look at it this way: the man doesn’t have to ride many trolley-buses; he’s used to the sleekest of conveyances, the best that an interplay of thoroughbred genetics can create.
This one is so much the Rolls and the Limo all in one that he’s moved firstly to shock after the King George, then to tears after yesterday’s Oaks. Two world champions of ALL time.
YORK TRAINERS UPDATE: William Haggas (20), Kevin Ryan (14), John Gosden (13), Sir Michael Stoute (10), David O’Meara (9), Richard Fahey (9) Charlie Appleby (8), Aidan O’Brien (8), Michael Dods (7), Tim Easterby (7), Saeed Bin Suroor (6), Richard Hannon (6), Andrew Balding (5), Mark Johnston (5), Charles Hills (4), John Quinn (4), Dermot Weld (4), Tony Martin (3), Karl Burke (3), Tom Dascombe (3), Hugo Palmer (3), Michael Bell (3).
JOCKEYS: Frankie Dettori (23), Jamie Spencer (13), William Buick (12), James Doyle (10), Daniel Tudhope (9), Ryan Moore (8), Daniel Tudhope (9), Paul Hanagan (8), Oisin Murphy (8), Silvestre De Sousa (7), Philip Makin (7), Andrea Atzeni (5), David Allan (4), Robert Winston (4), Tom Queally (4), George Baker (3), Jim Crowley (3), Harry Bentley (3), Paul Mulrennan (3), Richard Kingscote (3), Luke Morris (3).
TODAY‘S FAVOURITES: 1.55 race, just one joint favourite; 2.25 30%; 3.00 20%; 3.35 10%; 4.15 20%.
DRAW: 1.55 10-17 60%; 2.25 avoid stall 1; 3.00 3-6 80%; 3.35 7-11 90%; 4.50 2-5 83%.
GOING: Good to firm (partly cloudy)
EPAULEMENT ON HIS TOES FOR THIS
1.55 York (1m 4f handicap) Four-year-olds high in the handicap (9st 4lb plus) won five in a row before a lightweight of the same age slipped through the handicapper’s net last year.
Frankie Dettori is a three-time loser on Corelli this season, and Caradoc who carries a penalty hasn’t won beyond 10 furlongs, though backed last night as if he will today.
Jazeel is another up in trip. He’s already tried 1m 4f once before and failed to last out. So there are negatives about the three at the front of the market.
Indianapolis and Mandarin are weighted close together now after their first and third in the Shergar Cup at this trip. Mandarin was bidding for a hat-trick that day after back-to-back success two grades lower than this afternoon’s contest.
Similarly, from their places earlier in the Old Newton Cup, Epaulement and Indianapolis are also brought close together now, with the horse just behind them then, Eddystone Rock, franking the form here yesterday.
Gibbs Hill hasn’t won on turf for three years and that was on the soft. It’s two years since Eynhallow scored and his appearances on a racecourse are spasmodic.
A real pinstickers’ race, this, and mine falls on the consistent Epaulement (BETDAQ 18.0 this morning), one for the world of ballet.
STRADIVARIUS IS ONE IN A MILLION
2.25 York (2m Lonsdale Cup) After Crystal Ocean (stuffed) and Enable (preserved) here we are again with Stradivarius, the third long-odds-on shot of the week seeking immortality.
His only danger today appears to be the horse he’s beaten the last twice, Dee Ex Bee, whom he’s made the Crystal Ocean of the stayers fraternity.
Stradivarius’ 12 wins and three places have won a grand total of £2,274,581, with a £1m bonus likely today, where Enable’s 13 wins and one third have scooped £9,382,243. I think I’ll buy a little filly.
NO THREAT TO A HANNON GIMCRACK
3.00 York (6f Gimcrack Stakes) Muharrar (Charles Hills 2014) and Blue Point (2016) have this on the way to stardom as top sprinters, while Kevin Ryan has won it three times since 2012.
Ryan has three runners today to Hills one, all double-figure offers behind Threat, trained by Richard Hannon, who yesterday saddled the runaway Mum’s Tipple (first one on my short list, but not in my bets list)!
Threat’s second in the Coventry to Arizona was surpassed by his Richmond Stakes second to Golden Horde, since that one beat Arizona a couple of lengths when they were third and fourth to Earthlight in the Morny last Sunday.
The two-year-old ratings now have Earthlight and Raffle Prize (Mark Johnston) on 111 – though I have Earthlight on 113 – so we have to consider the Johnston in this: Iffraaz.
Spartan Fighter had a neck to spare at Ripon over A’Ali, who soon dropped away, fifth, in the Morny. A’Ali had beaten Dubai Station three lengths on the soft in the Norfolk Stakes.
Pistoletto earned early accolades but returned as an easy-to-back favourite for the Anglesey but was sixth of seven.
TEN SOVEREIGNS SHOULD MAKE ALL
3.35 York (5f Nunthorpe Stakes) Winners of the Nunthorpe have been drawn between 7 and 11 for nine years now but the track has played fair all week.
So it is that the clash of the sprint season between Battaash and Ten Sovereigns, with one drawn one and the other drawn 11, follows yesterday’s two sprint-distance results: Living In The Past made all from the one stall, Mums Tipple made all from gate 14. No help there, then.
I think I’ll hibernate to my office and watch from my computer to avoid the ITV racing team chant: ‘Battaash, Battaash’. Have they picked the wrong one again? What frock will Francesca wear today? ‘Come on I’ don’t need to know.
Battaash has been fourth in the Nunthorpe the last two years and his only Group-1 win has come on the soft in France. Mabs Cross (second last year) has similar form, his only Group 1 in France (when he beat Battaash).
I prefer Ten Sovereigns (2.56 BETDAQ) after the way he turned around the Commonwealth Cup form with Advertise in a firm-ground July Cup. He can make all.
If he can get away on level terms, Garrus (50.0 on BETDAQ) is capable of a place on normal improvement for his age, now that sprint-specialist Charles Hills has had a chance to get to know him. Winners of this race in recent years have included 100-1, 40-1 (twice) and 20-1 – two of them aged three – such are the vagaries of York.
THE BEST CHAMPAGNE IS DUTY FREE
4.15 York (7f) It’s for two-year-olds and it’s a maiden; what worse combination for punters can you get! When you check out stud and stable, you find that those with a myriad of fancy entries are Dulas, Fox Duty Free 5.9 BETDAQ offers, and Molatham (3.3).
So little form to go on but perhaps the champagne was put on ice at Newbury when Fox Duty Free overcame a badly-hampered start when third behind Owney Madden, winner of yesterday’s nursery here at York.
Mums Tipple trainer Richard Hannon saddles only Afro Blue, a drifter when betting opened last night, when early money was for Dubai Mirage and Celtic Art.
BIOMETRIC READY TO BOUNCE BACK
4.50 York (1m handicap) Five winners out of six have been drawn 2, 3 or 5, which is where you’ll find Boston George, Pogo and Coolagh Forest, with Dark Vision (4) tucked among them, and well backed early doors. A 7.6 offer on BETDAQ.
The form book says that Dark Vision didn’t get a clear run when finishing close up at Newmarket in July but blinkers on next time suggests that he might have made his own trouble.
The Britannia winner, Biometric,was a plunge horse last night but is worse off with the third, Fanaar (not clear run; hampered), with William Haggas still waiting to make an impact at this Ebor meeting, where he is leading trainer.
Fanaar (13.0 this morning) was also ‘switched, bumped, squeezed and not clear run’ at Goodwood earlier and, again, a blinkers and tongue-tie set of aids suggest he’s the one who needs straightening out.
Boston George (34.0) will be saddled by Keith Dalgleish, who has won at Bangor, Southwell, Ripon, Carlisle and Perth in the last week or so, then yesterday at York with What’s The Story.
Irv is attempting a York hat-trick, which started at the end of June. Hiked 13lb but the fact remains that he’s the only CD winner in the race.
Nine out of 10 of Karl Burke’s runners in the last week have finished in the first four, and he got substantial improvement out of Living In The Past at York yesterday. He runs Vitralite (22.0).
It’s a worse puzzle than the maiden! The usual answer is to find an improver: Edaarat and Seductive Moment have both gone up 15lb for two wins each but maybe the Moment of truth came when he refused to enter the stalls on his last int ended start.
Verdict: Edaarat (BETDAQ 6.2) is still on an attractive mark, and Biometric (9.6) could bounce back, though his right-leaning tendency is a worry, with stall 16 likely to push him wide of a central V-formation.
TAKING STAR TO LAND LOVE MATCH
6.40 The Curragh (7f 2yo fillies’ Debutante Stakes) This has just thrown up Rhododendron (2016) and Magical (2017) as part of a hat-trick for Aidan O’Brien, who saddles four today.
Trying to intervene is Jessica Harrington with Alpha Centauri’s half-sister Alpine Star, a 4.1 BETDAQ offer who impressed at the Galway races, beating a subsequent Curragh handicap winner 12 lengths.
Connections fancy her to turn around earlier Leopardstown form (green on the debut) when third to Love, who made all. Dividing them that day was Soul Search, who has since been third in the Anglesey (runner-up Lil Grey beaten since).
IBERIA BETDAQ VALUE FOR A PLACE
7.10 The Curragh (7f 2yo colts’ Futurity Stakes) The race that put Derby-winner Anthony Van Dyck in the Classics frame last year. Watch out for a collateral-form guide with the fillies race (above), Roman Turbo having won the Anglesey.
That doesn’t look good enough here. Very hard to resist the O’Brien quartet this time, with Armory leading the attack, looking for a hat-trick after taking the Tyros five lengths from stablemate Toronto (upset in the stalls).
Lope Y Fernandez has form in two races with the crack Pinatubo but the earlier Chesham second is best, though it’s quite reasonable to argue that he didn’t act at Goodwood afterwards; a lot of horses don’t.
The benchmark, albeit a tenuous one at this stage in two-year-old careers, is Jungle Cove, third to Armory in June, then second to the staying-on Iberia last month.
The market says that Armory (BETDAQ 1.86) is infinitely superior to Iberia (9.8 offers) but I reckon a place bet Iberia, with three chances yielding 125% profit, infinitely superior to odds-on Armory to win only 86% with one chance. And I don’t mind if Armory puts Iberia in his place!
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.55 York (win-50 bull’s-eye bet, 10 place)
BET 3pts win and 2.25pts place EPAULEMENT
3.00 York (win 10)
BET 6pts win THREAT
3.35 York (supernap, win 50 Garrus and win 10 place)
BET 20pts win TEN SOVEREIGNS
BET 1pt win and 1.25pts place GARRUS
4.15 York (win 20)
BET 5pts win FOX DUTY FREE
4.50 York (win 20)
BET 4pts win EDAARAT
BET 2.25pts win BIOMETRIC
6.40 The Curragh (win 10)
BET 3.25pts win ALPINE STAR
7.10 The Curragh (win 10, place win 10)
BET 1.2pts win and 8pts place IBERIA
DAQ MULTIPLES
3 x 3pt win doubles, 1pt win treble
STRADIVARIUS 2.25 York
THREAT 3.00 York
TEN SOVEREIGNS 3.35 York
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