14 WINNERS IN 8-DAY CHARGE: After 14 winners in eight days, including a 50% strike rate for his last six naps, Daqman finally got it wrong yesterday but hopes to pick up at Catterick and Plumpton this afternoon with his third pick at Wolverhampton tonight.
14 COOKIE STRIKES: 90 POINTS: After 14 winners and a profit of more than 90 points, Fortune Cookies are mainly sleepers now until Cheltenham but we hope there are one or two Grand National trialists, starting at Haydock on Saturday.
COMMODORE AT HAYDOCK HELM
FORTUNE COOKIES have done their job, creating a profitable sequence of trial winners and setting our sights on Cheltenham. We’ve had 14 winners, four seconds and just two unplaced.
RESULTS so far: WWWWWW200WWWWW22WWW2 Profit 92.11
Stage Star has not been out, probably because of the cloud over his Paul Nicholls yard but Commodore (Venetia Williams) should be a runner for us in the Haydock Park Grand National Trial on Saturday.
Should Commodore win, he will not attract a penalty for Aintree because the weights are being announced tomorrow.
Winners of the Haydock trial who went on to triumph in the National belong to the era before modification of the course: Freebooter (1949) and Sundew (1956) then a gap to Party Politics (1993); nothing since, though one or two close-run things (Suny Bay 2nd 1998).
Best and fastest performances Bravemansgame landed his second successive win for the Cookies at Newbury on Saturday.
Royal Pagaille, who didn’t have his ground or the right trip, was an excellent second in the Denman Chase; he just lacked the pace.
But we shall not take the Denman winner on board. For me, Eldorado Allen would not outstay Royal Pagaille in the Gold Cup and looks more like an Aintree player.
His Denman victory came over under-performers: Royal Pagaille because of the ground and, despite the victory of Bravemansgame, his Paul Nicholls stablemate Clan Des Obeaux, who is usually ridden positively, wasn’t at his best.
Weak in the market before Saturday’s race, he looks bound for the Aintree Bowl and Punchestown Gold Cup in a bid to repeat his double of last year.
Lays Logic As well as a red flag for Eldorado Allen’s being gifted the Denman, we shall avoid Broomfield Burg until Nicky Henderson has sorted the gelding’s head out.
He persisted in fighting his jockey, Nico De Boinville, during the big hurdle and that wasted the energy he needed for a finish. Maybe a strong pace would help him but there was nothing wrong with the time of the race.
MOORE’S THOR TO SCORE
⭕ 2.55 Plumpton In all probability local trainer Gary Moore will be on for a double here given the prohibitive price of his runner Mark Of Gold in the opener who should follow up his course and distance success last month.
Moore runs Sopran Thor who has a good chance now he looks to be in calmer waters. He made a rare jumping error and unseated his rider at the second last time out in a another class 3 event but had previously run a creditable fourth in a Newbury race that looked better than this.
There might still need to be a caution against the form of Paul Nicholls despite his Saturday double and I of course was delighted to see Bravemansgame win so well. The form of the yard still remains well below average and of his seven horses that have started favourite in the last two weeks it’s only been Bravemansgame that’s been able to win.
I would therefore be slightly wary about backing his Ubetya at short odds on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE here. Stable form aside, there are further question marks given its his first start for 422 days and also first start for the stable.
BE WEAR OF THE NAP
⭕ 3.50 Catterick The opening handicap hurdle and closing bumper bookend the Catterick card and are also the only two races that creep into double digit runners.
The bumper looks interesting as it brings together You Wear It Well and Stroll On By who have both shown promise in this sphere and should fight it out.
Stroll On By has had two starts but I’m not sure improved much on his Carlisle debut to finish second again at Sedgefield last time out. He does hail from the very much in form Charlie Longsdon yard (6 winners from last 15).
But Jamie Snowdon, trainer of You Wear It Well, is also ticking over very nicely thank you with 3 winners from his last 7 runners and he might land this with the mare who bumped into a decent one on debut at Ludlow.
She ran green but stayed on nicely to finish six and a half lengths second to Mullenberg on the same soft ground expected here. The form took a considerable boost when Mullenberg followed up in impressive fashion at Cheltenham on Trials Day last month and that one holds a Cheltenham Festival Champion Bumper entry at around 25/1.
SERENADING MY LAST SELECTION HOME
⭕ 7.30 Wolverhampton This looks a little more competitive than the other class 2 race on the card and might be a good opportunity for Serenading.
The James Fanshawe trained runner was a far from disgraced fifth in the Winter Oaks Fillies’ Handicap at Lingfield last time out which was a valuable £51,000 to the winner event and should find things a little easier here.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 2.8pts win SOPRAN THOR (2.55 Plumpton)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) YOU WEAR IT WELL (3.50 Catterick)
BET 2.6pts win SERENADING (7.30 Wolverhampton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.