7-4 NAP AS DAQMAN STRIKES GOLD AT 8-1: You can’t keep a good man down! After his frustrating day on Saturday, Daqman’s every bet won money at Leopardstown yesterday, including his nap, Vautour (WON 7-4), and his sole Hennessy Gold Cup tip, Last Instalment (WON 8-1).
44 POINTS PROFIT: 21.0 OUTSIDERS PLACED: He made 44 points profit yesterday, with his best-in-race returns for Saturday and Sunday 13122231211, including his two outsiders placed at 16-1 (both from 21.0 on BETDAQ). Sunday’s three bets:
2nd 16-1 TIGER ROLL (win and place)
WON 7-4 VAUTOUR (nap)
WON 8-1 LAST INSTALMENT (big race)
THREE BEST BETS UP OUT OF SIX: His last six naps now have a 50% strike rate. The winners have been:
WON 11-4 PANAMA PETRUS
WON 7-2 FIRST MOHICAN
WON 7-4 VAUTOUR
DAQMAN 10, PRICEWISE 2: Last Instalment brought the tally in his value-bets challenge match with the trade-paper tipster to Daqman 10 Pricewise 2 in 2014 and a score of 21-6 since the challenge began on November 23rd.
Don’t get carried away by the floods. Hold on tight to better-ground form for Cheltenham and Aintree, which are usually run on going no worse than good to soft.
The Grand National weights are out tomorrow and the Cheltenham Festival meeting starts one month tomorrow. It’s a focal day, and punters are sure to get carried away by heavy-ground winners of the last few weeks in the mud. Equally, don’t discard them all. Check out their history.
The Press pundits say that Harry Topper – he scored a notable victory for my horses to follow – will need more mud at Cheltenham if he is to have any impact on the Gold Cup. Right.
And Last Instalment will be out of his depth at Cheltenham, taking on the likes of Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti in the big ‘un. Wrong.
I rarely side with horses back from long absence through injury and, though he was the overall form horse yesterday, the ‘bounce’ factor was a risk after his recent reappearance at Thurles.
But there’s no doubt now in my mind that Last Instalment is back to his best (a fabulous training feat by Philip Fenton, of Tipperary) and it was his sound-surface wins that made him famous in the first place.
He hammered First Lieutenant in the Fort Leney Novices’ Chase at Leopardstown (going good) and followed up in the Moriarty (good to soft) as his RSA prep, only to miss out through injury.
Now this immaculate jumper is back on the Cheltenham trail. It’s still a long way from Tipperary but, after only six steeplechases in his shortened career – five of them wins – he is likely to improve no end, though now aged nine.
This year’s Moriarty winner and this year’s RSA hope, Ballycasey – he won the Moriarty yesterday, beating only one other finisher – also missed Cheltenham last year when a strong contender for the Albert Bartlett.
He, too, seems back to his best with two from two this season, one of them on good-to-yielding ground, which he’d run and won on before in a bumper.
I think Last Instalment’s front-running style and Ballycasey’s small-field victory will keep many punters off their backs, but there’s no doubt about their ability on better ground.
As ever, BETDAQ has the value. Last Instalment is as low as 6-1 with one bookmaker but 11.0 is on offer on the people’s exchange this morning. I’ll have that in my wallet, as my first position on the Gold Cup.
Yesterday’s success makes me feel safer in betting waters, but there’s a warning that the sharks will be out at Catterick and to stick with BETDAQ.
At the corresponding meeting last season, the Total SP percentage of bookmakers’ final offers added up to 120 and 124% in two races, never lower than 111%.
This morning as I write, the BETDAQ orange down the card adds up to 103, 107, 103, 105, 103 and 108%. Punter friendly or what!
It seems a shame to have to nap at all on a day like this but at least Catterick keeps the show on the road and BETDAQ keeps the offers sweet. The powerful play goes on.
Union Jack D’Ycy (3.50 Catterick) is a dual winner in the mud at Auteuil, seemingly now going places here, as is trainer Venetia Williams, having a huge season.
DAQMAN’S BETS are staked to win 20 points each, except a ante-post.
BET 8pts win CAPOTE (1.50 Catterick)
BET 10pts win DIOCLES (2.50 Catterick)
BET 3.5pts win BONNET’S VINO (3.20 Catterick)
BET 8pts win (nap) UNION JACK D’YCY (3.50 Catterick)
ANTE-POST: BET 3pts win LAST INSTALMENT at 11.0 (Cheltenham Gold Cup)
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