CHELTENHAM WRAP: THE GAMBLES THAT WENT ASTRAY: As the Cheltenham debates continue, Daqman checks out some of the advice that was given in the Press, with the facts that support or reject them, including the story of the many gambles that went wrong.
KELSO LOCKOUT AND MORE ‘CLOSED DOORS’ EXPECTED: After a dull day yesterday, Daqman ended up toasting Allavina (WON 5-2) in the bumper at Market Rasen, as predicted. Kelso without spectators today is a preview of what it will be like in England when meetings are likely to be run ‘behind closed doors’ at all racing venues from later in the week. DAQMAN has a NAP on the Kelso card.
‘LIQUID GOLD’ FLOWED DOWN THE DRAIN
Fake news or misguided information. Press pundits claiming to be in the know got some betting ‘truths’ half right at Cheltenham and some blatantly wrong. Here is a selection from their advice:
🤔 MYTH 1 Follow the money at Cheltenham. The Irish would ‘know’ what was going to win and you would see the money ‘flow like liquid gold’ on sure winners, said a newspaper article.
💥 EXPLODE Horses for the money, mainly Irish, found four winners from 17 so the market usually got it wrong – with some excruciating near misses – apart from already established favourites.
These were the money horses, where odds were cut, some dramatically: Abacadabras 2nd 11-4, Allaho 3rd 5-2, Allmankind 3rd 7-2, A Plus Tard 3rd 7-4, Benie Des Dieux 2nd 4-6, Billaway 2nd 11-4, Champagne Platinum unplaced 5-1, Chosen Mate won 7-2, Defi Du Seuil 4th 2-5, Envoi Allen won 4-7, Epatante won 2-1, Fakir d’Oudairies 2nd 3-1, Faugheen 3rd 3-1, Galvin 2nd 4-1, Carefully Selected UR 10-11, Palladium pulled up 5-1 and Saint Roi won 11-2.
🤔 MYTH 2 Follow the leading jumps sires at Cheltenham. Don’t miss horses by Flemensfirth, Milan, Stowaway and Yeats, urged one of the ‘experts’ in a toff’s paper.
💥 EXPLODE Half right. Sires with most winners – two each – were: Poliglote won the Champion Chase with Politologue and the Pertemps Final with Sire Du Berlais. Stowaway won the Arkle with Put The Kettle On and the Albert Bartlett with Monkfish.
Kalanisi won the Ultima Handicap with The Conditional and novices handicap with Imperial Aura. Nathaniel won the Mares Novices with Concertista and the Triumph Hurdle with Burning Victory.
🤔 MYTH 3 Don’t bet for a place at Cheltenham. If you’re betting each way you might as well split the stake on two different horses, was the advice.
💥 EXPLODE I can only speak on my own account. If Daqman cost you, it was partly because he didn’t do enough place bets, or he would have trawled in Aramon 2nd 8-1, Latest Exhibition 2nd 9-2, Lord Du Mesnil 2nd 11-2, Easywork 2nd 12-1, Oldgrangewood 4th 12-1, Third Wind 4th 12-1, most of them much bigger offers in BETDAQ on the morning of their race.
🤔 MYTH 4 Colin Tizzard loses at Cheltenham then wins with them at Aintree Four horses were named during a TV programme to substantiate the myth.
💥 EXPLODE Mister Malarky, fourth at Cheltenham last year, was second at Aintree. Reserve Tank 10-1 winner at Aintree last year was pulled up at Cheltenham last Tuesday, so they seem to have got that one the wrong way round.
But they were right about Lostintranslation, runner-up at Cheltenham last year, and a 3-1 winner at Aintree, and Native River, fourth at Cheltenham last March, then winner at Aintree at 5-6.
MARS ALIGNS FOR NAP PROJECT
⭕ 4.20 Hereford Jurys Out doesn’t make much appeal having to give away so much weight and coming into this on the back of unseating here last time out when sent off favourite on his chasing debut.
The alternative value play is Angel’s Envy who did well when third on her chase debut at Wetherby. That was her first start for Laura Mongan and there might be further improvement to come.
Go Hard Or Go Home is third favourite and I’ve no idea why! He was pulled up on his chase debut and then pulled up on his handicap chase debut – his first start since wind surgery. The new headgear fitted today would need to have a massive impact.
⭕ 4.30 Southwell Fizzlestix might be worth siding with on the assumption he is well handicapped at present.
He won a handicap chase off this mark of 94 last week when the first time tongue strap appeared to help. Trainer Chris Gordon has switched him back to the smaller obstacles in the hope of striking whilst the iron remains hot.
Biggest danger looks to be Hang Tough who is up 5lb for a first success when winning at Warwick last month. Jonjo O’Neill’s current stable form has to be a concern though with just 1 winner from his last 24.
There has been morning interest on BETDAQ on Oliver’s Island but his current form is modest and he was beaten 40 lengths at Sedgefield last time out.
⭕ 4.40 Kelso There are plenty of short priced favourites on today’s ‘behind close doors’ Kelso card but patience might be rewarded in waiting for Project Mars in the finale.
The change of stables to Fergal O’Brien seems to have reinvigorated the eight-year-old who has finished second at Fontwell and won at Huntingdon last time out for his new yard.
He’s up 5lb for the Huntingdon win but there are ground question marks against some of his rivals who, in the main, are in very modest form.
Golan Cloud is second favourite, yet is a 10 race maiden who has been 20 lengths and more in all but one of his starts and even a 4lb drop down the handicap ladder makes very limited appeal.
A bigger danger might come from Innis Shannon whose only career win in 20 starts did come on heavy ground at Hexham – she was very disappointing at Carlisle last time out over 3m 1f and the drop back in trip might help.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all bets staked to win 10 points)
BET 1.6pts win and 5.5pts place ANGEL’S ENVY (4.20 Hereford)
BET 3.9pts win FIZZLESTIX (4.30 Southwell)
BET 8.3pts win (nap) PROJECT MARS (4.40 Kelso)
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