DAQMAN’S FORTUNE COOKIES COULD HIT SIX: Daqman today presents his guide to the Welsh Grand National – with a winner in three – as his Fortune Cookies continue their winning sequence, with six-in-a-row possible today and 72 points profit from a four-timer which contained no odds on..
TOMORROW: Leopardstown comes to ITV racing tomorrow and Daqman will be there.
FORTUNE COOKIE’S 72 POINTS
Now it’s five in a row. Even when ignored by me for too short a price, the Fortune Cookies go on winning.
I did not stake Fil d’Or yesterday (long odds-on) and Edwardstone today is also too short; I found looking over the records of the last three years that odds-on shots spoiled the profit. We’ll see.
Results so far (5-5): 72 points profit
WON 4-1 PROTEKTORAT (December 4)
WON 1-1 BLAZING KHAL (December 11)
WON 1-1 JONBON (December 17)
WON 6-5 BRAVEMANSGAME (December 26)
WON 4-9 FIL DOR (December 26) not staked
This week’s runners and entries
EDWARDSTONE (1.20 Kempton today) not staked
A PLUS TARD (2.20 Leopardstown tomorrow)
JANIDIL (2.20 Leopardstown tomorrow)
VANILLIER (1.45 Leopardstown, Wednesday)
🗓️ Update Thursday after Leopardstown meeting ends
🏴 WELSH GRAND NATIONAL ABC 🏴
⭕ 2.50 Chepstow (Welsh Grand National) STATS: Eight winners in the decade carried below 11st. Eight were a single-figure age and eight were 10-1 or shorter at SP.
Further rain could make the going heavy, so I’m staying with the younger horses on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE among the lightweights.
1: Highland Hunter Fifth in the Midlands National, giving 9lb to Mighty Thunder, is 10lb better off today, despite a penalty for a winning return at Sandown (3m 5f).
This is weights compatible with their hurdles form when Highland Hunter beat Mighty Thunder half a length at Musselburgh over 3m 2f.
2: Mighty Thunder Winner of the Edinburgh National (soft) and second in the Midlands version at Uttoxeter but carried a stone more to win the Scottish Grand National and just 6lb higher after a run back in the Charlie Hall in October.
3: The Big Dog After a couple of recent efforts, he could be primed to run to his Punchestown Grand National Trial form of last February, when he gave 11lb and a half-length beating to Screaming Colours.
That has him barking at the heels of Highland Hunter and Mighty Thunder in the current handicap.
The rest in ABC order:
Achille Runner-up in both Warwick Classic and Haydock Grand National Trial last season but only race since was to try Grand National fences in the Becher. He’s 12 on Saturday.
Captain Drake Fourth last year, beaten six lengths, but first-time blinkers unlikely to bridge the gap.
Colorado Doc Good jumper who stays well – second in the trial here – but has been temperamental.
Deise Aba was beaten a nose by Highland Hunter in the London National and – racing off his old mark today – is 4lb better but had had a run before Sandown; Highland Hunter had not.
Discordantly Troytown sixth. Unattractive on form but Jessica Harrington says: this is the plan. First-time tongue-tie.
Elegant Escape Won this race in 2018 and sixth in 2019, but modest form since despite wind surgery.
Hill Sixteen Beaten only a nose by Snow Leopardess in the Becher Chase but that was Grand National fences and close to this tough task today.
Hold That Taught, stronger this year, has a chance off 140, after winning the Cumberland Chase at Carlisle.
🤔 LAYS LOGIC: Iwilldoit Ran away with the trial for this earlier in the month; too close to today’s race and up 10lb;well beaten in two tries beyond 3m.
Kimberlite Candy, winner of the 2020 Warwick Classic winner, has been over the Grand National fences three times, and I tend to avoid such horses until I’ve seen them back over park fences. Blinkered first time.
Mac Tottie Always promised to be a stayer, but fell – well fancied – in the Becher Chase, too recently to be confident of a good run today.
Native River Took this Welsh National as long ago as 2016 and his Gold Cup was 2018. Big ask with topweight and he will be 13 on Saturday!
Potters Corner Down 7lb on his mark after terrific Chepstow double of December two years ago, capped by winning this Welsh National on heavy. But Aintree Grand National run (pulled up) and two cross-country attempts this year (just beaten only 17 days ago) may have taken the edge off him for a race like this. He’s 12 on Saturday and out of the handicap here.
Secret Reprieve (Chepstow form 111) was a comfortable winner of the last Welsh National, despite his breast-girth coming loose. Put away for the double bid today but has never won after a long break.
Truckers Lodge Second in this race to Potters Corner but not recover from stone hike in the handicap for winning the 2020 Midlands Grand National. Blinkers tried after poor fifth in the trial here earlier in the month.
1.55 Kempton (win 12, nap)
BET 2.5pts win TEQUILA BLAZE
2.50 Chepstow (win 50 bull’s eye)
BET 5pts win THE BIG DOG
BET 3.75pts win HIGHLAND HUNTER
BET 2.25pts win MIGHTY THUNDER
2.55 Leopardstown (win 50 bull’s eye)
BET 2.75pts win AGUSTA GOLD
3.10 Kempton (win 20)
BET 4pts win FORTESCUE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.