7-4 DAQMAN NAP WAS A FABULOUS 4.8 ON BETDAQ: Daqman reckoned Sound Investment (WON 7-4, nine lengths) too big at 4.8 on BETDAQ yesterday and, sure enough, yet another Daq-value nap obliged. His current naps sequence is now 11021. Today’s best bet was a huge 11.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
FOUR WINNING DAYS OUT OF FIVE: Also tipping Bright Abbey (WON 7-1) and Sidney Melbourne (WON 4-6), he made a profit of 32 points yesterday, his fourth winning day out of five.
12 BETS UP SINCE WEDNESDAY: Yesterday’s trio brought to 12 his total of winning bets since Wednesday, including the two other naps, Intello (WON 6-4) and Toronado (WON 8-11), and another BETDAQ-value coup with Tickled Pink (WON 8-1 from 14.0).
HE DECLARES HIS TARGET EVERY DAY: Daqman’s Bets (below his column) declare his staking plan every day. He says: ‘I could kick myself about my losing day, Saturday, when I didn’t provide adequate cover for big-race bets in lottery fields of 24 and 25.’
Little fish are sweet. And Micky Hammond may be capable of hooking the Pontefract Marathon prize for the fourth time in five years through Stickleback today.
As a maiden, Stickleback (3.40) gets in with a featherweight and ran a course third over 2m 2f last time, making ground late on as if the step up to today’s trip would suit.
This is the joint longest race on the Flat, about the same trip as the Queen Alexandra Stakes, but that one is class 2 at Ascot; this is class 5 and comes in for my condemnatory ‘you can’t trust a horse at this level to perform the same way twice.’
But Kazbow who, along with My Arch, has won in higher grade, has just defied that, putting back-to-back wins together over 2m at Southwell, though railing round the Rolleston bends is like sprinting compared with today’s marathon.
My Arch was a long way off Wily Fox and Stickleback in that 2m 2f race on today’s course and Jeu De Roseau looks a more likely threat, three times a winner over 2m and second at 3m on the last day over hurdles.
Low-grade Northern sprints are a nightmare but, heh, today’s is class 2 (3.10) and there is an edge, in that a low draw is favoured at Pontefract.
In the race’s four years with double-figure fields, the winner has come from stalls 1, 7, 4 and 5,
Al’s Memory is running off his highest mark and seems more suited to AW; Red Aggressor tried a hood last time but it’s left off now; Singeur is best at the minimum; rain would dampen Head Space’s chance and his form pegs him down as a class 3 off this mark.
Haftohaf has been haring ‘hof’ in front over 7f; will surely get the break from stall 5 but has to raise his game from class 4. Galician is also down in trip and up in grade.
That leaves me ‘expecting’ Colonel Mak. He’s had two runs back, both at Doncaster, badly drawn both times: when he had a high draw in March (15), the result by stall was 6, 4,8; when he had a low draw (5) on the last day, the 1-2-3 came from 18, 17, 8.
For these two runs, the handicapper has kindly dropped him 3lb, which is a bonus for any sprinter, and he’s now 12lb lower than when he won last summer, and 6lb below what he was just over a year ago when, after a dismal performance in the March, he beat a field of 22 for the boys’ race on Town Moor.
I got 11.5 on BETDAQ, confident that this horse will win a race off this kind of mark; if not today, then the money is only lent.
Aldwick Bay (7.30 Windsor) was one of my Early Bird horses to follow, before my new list came into operation yesterday.
I was disappointed that he didn’t win first time out, as he had done last year but, in fact, he reappeared on Polytrack which is not his game.
He has never won on that surface but is a course specialist here at Windsor, with form-figures on the weird and winding track of 013121, so I surmise that this is the race he was prepping for.
Angel Gabrial and Mafeteng have never won before July and August, and Man Of Plenty seemed held up to get this trip on his reappearance. Guising ‘could be anything’, as they say after his maiden romp at Musselburgh
But the other horse that looks targeted for this is the 8.6 offer Abundantly, who won first time last season. His stable is hot; Hughie Morrison’s form figures going into this are 10132312.
Dean Ivory currently has a 50% strike rate and he’s a wizard at using the handicap system; he scores with almost one in three maidens put into a handicap for the first time, so Guardi (5.20) is massive at 11.0 on BETDAQ as I write, particularly when you look at the opposition.
Stag Hill’s had his win (at the 22nd attempt), Standing Strong is still a maiden and King Olav is struggling at the age of eight. It’s looking good for Guardi: he only has to be half a horse to beat that little lot. A value nap with Ted Durcan booked for the job.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.3pts win COLONEL MAK (3.10 Pontefract.
BET 3.5pts win JEU DE ROSEAU and 3.1pts win STICKLEBACK (3.40 Pontefract)
BET 2pts win (nap) GUARDI (5.20 Kempton)
BET 6.4pts win ALDWICK BAY and 2.6pts win ABUNDANTLY (7.30 Windsor)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: A standard day, each horse targeted to win 20 points. Overall, just one return from small-stakes bets at these BETDAQ value offers would see us in front on the day; but two and we’re laughing all the way to the bank.
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