41.0 PLACE IN MELBOURNE CUP: The Melbourne Cup at Flemington in the early hours of tomorrow morning is a stronger race this year than when Gold Trip won in 2022, not least because Willie Mullins raids with two top-notch stayers including market leader Vauban (pictured below). Daqman tries two outsiders off lightweights to small stakes at BETDAQ 19.5 and 41.0 but has to get serious and back the Mullins magic as well.
IRISH JOCKEY’S FULL HOUSE: It’s a big day for jockey Denis O’Regan, with a racetrack full-house planned at Hereford. That rates the nap.
MULLINS’ MAGIC WITH ONE-TWO
🇦🇺 MELBOURNE CUP: 4.00 am tomorrow, Flemington, good
A: The last 19 winners had won a Group race in Europe or Australia.
B: 17 out of 19 had run in the last month.
C: Winner’s Draw: 5, 5, 10, 1, 17, 4, 19, 21, 12, 18, 13 last year (some 14 of 19 came out of stalls 9 or higher)
D: Winning Jockeys with rides: Jamie Kah, James Macdonald, Kerrin McEvoy, Jye McNeil, Ryan Moore, Damien Oliver, Craig Williams, Mark Zahra,
E: Winning Trainers with runners: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, Danny O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien, Chris Waller, Gai Waterhouse,
X: Breeding black mark Interpretation (pulled up last year), Okita Soushi and Serpentine are by Galileo whose progeny is 0-32 in the Melbourne Cup.
X: Lays Logic: Only three favourites have won in 21 years.
ABCDE ASHRUN Ticks all the boxes but only 10th in the Cup in 2020 when trained in Germany, after second in the 1m 7f Kergorlay, and ‘hidden horse’ in that he did not resume training until first of three starts in September this year. Beaten only a neck in the Geelong Cup (1m 4f good) and well drawn tomorrow in 11. See Future History
ABCD WITHOUT A FIGHT Only 13th in soft ground last year from gate 17 (now in 16) but he’s won three out of four on good since, including the traditional trial Caulfield Cup (Gold Trip 3rd, Right You Are 5th, Soulcombe 7th, Break Up 8th) but all were over 9f and 12f.
ABCE FUTURE HISTORY Trainer says he’s had ‘the perfect prep.’ Won the Bart Cummings (Group 3 good) here over 1m 4f in October (Serpentine 3rd, Ashrun less than three lengths 6th) before third in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (1m 4f) behind Cleveland. To be ridden by Hollie Doyle.
ABCE VOW AND DECLARE Winner of the 2019 Melbourne Cup Still in the mix as an eight-year-old but unlikely winner. See Cleveland
ABC BREAKUP Tokyo Grade-2 winner last year (1m 4f) on firm and in first four over 1m 7f and 2m since. See Without A Fight.
ABC CLEVELAND Chester Cup winner of 2022 for Aidan O’Brien from Coltrane (2m 2f good). Second for new yard last month in Randwick St Leger and won Moonee Valley Gold Cup (1m 4f) from Vow And Declare with Future History third, Sheraz 8th, Alenquer 9th, True Marvel 10th.
Drawn wide in 23 and jockey James Macdonald prefers Gold Trip, who in turn is rejected by Mark Zahra in favour of Without A Fight.
ABDE GOLD TRIP won the Cup last year, drawn 13 on soft ground. Up in the weights, starts from gate 2 tomorrow on good ground, on which he won the Turnbull last month with Soulcombe (slow away) third.
ABD ALENQUER Ex William Haggas; steady improvement in Australia and only three lengths or so behind Cleveland in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but career best form 1m 4f soft-heavy. This is three-time-winner Damien Oliver’s last ride in the Cup; he’s retiring.
ABE MILITARY MISSION Good form this year stepped up to around 1m 4f, winning the Newcastle Gold Cup (Kalapour 7th) and at Caulfield (both on good); fourth in the Group-1 Metropolitan at Randwick
ABE SOULCOMBE Won at Flemington (1m 5f) a year ago and over a mile at Flemington last month but too often loses ground at the start (blinkers off to free him up). See Gold Trip.
ACD LASTOTCHKA Won the Prix Gladiateur over almost 2m at Longchamp in September. All winning form on good to soft or deeper.
ADX VAUBAN Flat-race strikes for Willie Mullins, including over stablemate Absurde at Royal Ascot in June, have come over shorter but he performed a Grade-1 hat-trick over hurdles in the Spring of 2022.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: More Willie Mullins’ magic with a one-two: Vauban (Ryan Moore was at his best at Santa Anita) hasn’t run for 92 days; Ebor winner Absurde has not won a Group race but might have been closer to Vauban at Ascot had he not been short of room before two out. Improver who won the Ebor (More Felons 8th).
My outsiders are Future History and Ashrun, thrown in on his best form and with an ace for this race, Kerrin McEvoy, in the saddle.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.4 Vauban, 9.9 Absurde, 19.5 Future History, 41 Ashrun
HIGH FIVE FOR RIDER O’REGAN
⭕ 3.50 Hereford If Denis O’Regan can get Fiveonefive home, he will have ridden a winner on every racecourse in Britain and Ireland.
As the weights reveal, Cian Collins’ five-year-old, who is a regular over here, is better class than his rivals, though Omaha Wish is Harry Skelton’s pick of the stable’s runners today.
Nicky Henderson’s Johnny Blue has been easy to back this morning but the stable has a 33% record here.
⭕ 4.00 Kempton (London Middle Distance Series Final) Max Mayhem won the Rosebery at Kempton and has improved his mark with good efforts at Ascot.
The winning box two years out of three has been stall 4, where another Kempton CD winner, Tenerife Sunshine, who has been at a loss over further, can be livened by first-time visor.
But a bigger danger is probably Graignes. He won over this trip at Kempton when ridden by William Buick in the summer. Down the field in the Cambridgeshire the last day but Buick back on board now.
3.50 Hereford (win 10, nap)
BET 12pts win FIVEONEFIVE
4.00 Kempton (win 12)
BET 3pts win MAX MAYHEM
BET 1.75pts win GRAIGNES
🇦🇺 4.00 am tomorrow Flemington (win 50 x 2, win 20 x 2)
BET 2.75pts win FUTURE HISTORY
BET 1.25pts win and place ASHRUN
BET 5.75pts win VAUBAN
BET 2.2pts win ABSURDE
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