‘ROCKET’ A BIG NAP AT SOUTHWELL: Michael Wigham’s yard is getting 100% from its runners, so Trojan Rocket looked ‘too big’ at Southwell at 6.6 on BETDAQ this morning. Is this a rocket or a Trojan horse? It’s a nap, says Daqman.
DAQMAN’S GOLDEN RULE ON ‘INFORMATION’: It’s a day when Daqman warns punters: Be your own man, even against the advice of jockeys and trainers. Some information is essential, but some is ‘suspect.’
There are two schools of thought about ‘information.’ One is that you can’t bet without it. The other is that you should ignore it completely, particularly from jockeys and trainers.
On Saturday, Willie Mullins, talking of his runners for Sunday in the trade paper, was worried for Turban in the big race at Fairyhouse that he might ‘bounce’, following just the one recent hurdles run after a long absence. As they say, it is now history that Turban won well yesterday.
Of course, Mullins was right to be worried, and the punter should react by amending his stake, or requiring bigger odds, when he sees or hears ‘negative information.’
How many of you are old enough to remember the Tim Forster Syndrome. Forster was an excellent trainer, particularly of stayers, but – whenever approached by the Press for a quote – would be downcast, downright worried, down in the mouth (whatever dismal description you can think of, he was it).
It got to the stage with Yours Truly that the more down Forster seemed before a race, the more I fancied his beast to do well, on the grounds that, if he was worried, then he must be concerned about the race, hoping he could ‘get a result.’
Tim was ashen, jaw as low as his riding boots before the 1985 Grand National, not only with his usual ‘worries’, but because his runner, Last Suspect, was owned by Anne Duchess Of Westminster.
Her Grace – in fact, her friends called her Nancy – was well known for refusing to run her horses in the National, in particular a certain son of Archive (out of Bright Cherry), born on 19 April, 1957.
Yes, even this horse’s real birthday, as opposed to the January 1 regulation birthday, was celebrated, at least in Ireland. They even wrote a song about him. His name was Arkle.
Arkle won three Gold Cups, a King George, two Hennessys and an Irish National among his 27 successes, and would have pulverized his field at Aintree, though he’d have carried 12st 7lb with all the rest on 10st.
Back to Last Suspect, who was almost withdrawn from his National because of the Arkle factor and an enduring attack of the Tim Forster Syndrome.
He was also a doubtful starter because he was what we politely call in racing ‘a character’ at times. But he got on well with a jockey called Hywel Davies.
Davies, persistently whispering his confidence in the ear of a reluctant duchess, and pleading with a super-pessimistic trainer, finally got his way. Last Suspect ran. Last Suspect won.
His SP was 50-1. I was there, and I was on! I rushed back to my hosts in the tented village at Aintree –the Dalys from Ireland who sponsored their home Champion Hurdle – and was about to tell them I had 66-1, when they flourished a Tote ticket under my nose. Dividend: 101-1.
That was the day I didn’t listen to the trainer. Yesterday I did. And I will now have to add the record-breaking Willie Mullins as the last name on my list of ‘usual suspects’ who put me off with the worrits!
Golden Rule: study the form and sort the race out for yourself, only reading other comments and trainer opinion afterwards. Then, if you, yourself, are worried, reduce your stake. But don’t be put off your own opinion.
By the way, the Dalys tried to win the National themselves, their trainer, Mouse Morris, aiming Lastofthebrownies at the race two years running.
He didn’t win but the horse is probably the holder of an unusual record. Does anyone else know of a maiden which finished fourth in one Liverpool Grand National and fifth in the next?
SOUTHWELL (Nap and double): Tatting missed out on a hat-trick here when getting boxed in at the last meeting, leaving Noble Citizen to gain his first success in two and a half years. Should get his revenge.
Tatting, 3.5 on BETDAQ this morning, has beaten Raging Bear and The Lock Master recently and only the 9.8 offer Rebellious Guest – will he take to the course? – seems to stand in the way in today’s Ladbrokes Handicap (3.10).
Michael Wigham – two winners from his last three runners – is currently getting 100% from his horses, accordingly to the admirable Trainerspot in the Racing Post (credit where it’s due).
His sole runner today, Trojan Rocket (3.40), looks too big this morning at 6.6, back to 6f after a decent effort when returning to AW for the first time recently since back-to-back Wolver wins a couple of years ago.
Also a dual winner on the July Course, Rocket is the right one here, if only by default, with Mappin Time a quirky customer, Thorpe Bay and Maakirr now both high in the handicap, and Pull The Pin from a yard with 100 consecutive losers at Southwell.
WOLVERHAMPTON (Outsiders of the day): Daniel Mark Loughnane’s stable near Stoke – 35 miles from Wolverhampton racecourse – is in fine form, with current figures of 221401142.
Two years ago, the yard produced Speedy Yaki, a four-race maiden to win the 7f race on today’s card (3.30), gambled on when up in trip for the first time in England.
Aussie Sky, 22.0 BETDAQ offers this morning, is also a four-race maiden, also up in trip on his first run for the Loughnane set-up.
Five years ago Alan McCabe saddled a 23-race maiden to win the Ladbrokes Handicap (4.30). Today his 19-races-without-a-win Una Bella Cosa is 16.5 on BETDAQ, as I write.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes to win 20 each)
BET 8pts win TATTING and 2.2pts win REBELLIOUS GUEST (3.10 Southwell)
BET 3.5pts win (nap) TROJAN ROCKET (3.40 Southwell)
BET 1pt win and place AUSSIE SKY (3.30 Wolverhampton)
BET 1.3pts win and place UNA BELLA COSA (4.30 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 1pt win doubles TROJAN ROCKET (3.40 Southwell) with TATTING and REBELLIOUS GUEST (3.10 Southwell)
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