RAIN-HIT SOUTHERN MEETINGS HAVE SCORES OF NON-RUNNERS: You have to pick your way through the puddles of non-runners at rain-drenched Windsor and Salisbury today, while Musselburgh remains on the firm side.
BIG OFFERS AGAINST THE MUDLARKS: Daqman plots outsiders at 14.5, 11.5, 10.0, 9.2 and 7.6 offers on BETDAQ this morning which are known to enjoy the mud.
It’s one thing to train horses, another to know what to do with them. Getting the trip right and placing them in the right races is an art of the few who are not gifted with a barn full that can be scattered over multiple entries.
Alan King is one of those skilled in the art, as was his mentor, Duke Nicholson. We approach the changeover to the jumping game with Barbury Castle in fine form under both Rules.
The punter’s pal over the sticks with the highest strike rate of English trainers in the table (28%), ‘Kingy’ is also hitting 72% on the Flat, win and place, right now.
The yard’s current form figures of 1213202110 could be enhanced even further by Chocola (5.30) at Salisbury today.
Only half of the runners in this field have won over the 1m 6f and, of those, only Chocola and Duke Of Clarence have scored on soft ground.
Sizzler is a CD winner, but when making all on good ground, and he’s raised a whopping 10lb for it, making his task so much more difficult in the mud.
Signed Up is surprisingly short in the market this morning (9.2 as I write), as one already beaten twice by Duke Of Clarence (offers of 11.5), who is dropped back to his winning grade.
No, the big question marks are Centred and Buchanan, both lightly raced, both with skillful handicap trainers, like King, who place their horses well. Will either, or both, get this trip on the ground?
The stats tell us that a quality horse for the grade, racing off 9st 7lb to 10st, wins this, none of them three-year-olds. That age group has fielded the beaten favourite in two of the last three seasons.
Though Centred goes well fresh, the doubts make him only a stakes saver at the short price to the main bets on Duke Of Clarence and Chocola, raised in class but with stamina to spare for this trip.
Musselburgh’s ground was still standing firm this morning, while Windsor had turned soft after overnight rain, with non-runners there totaling a field as big as the Cesarewitch but still a tricky Ladbrokes-sponsored card.
Alan Jarvis, who has booked top claimer Michael Murphy for Prince Regal (7.6 offers at 3.35) will welcome the rain for the soft-ground Epsom winner, brought back to 6f.
Joey’s Destiny (4.10) beat Gravitational out of sight at Leicester, then won on the soft at Goodwood, yet is second favourite behind his old rival this afternoon.
I can’t see why Blighty (5.10) is so short – must be the Lady Cecil factor – and he will have to show me why in the race, without my money on him.
I find that Nickels And Dimes (10.0) and Eric The Grey (14.5) are far too big and my saver is not Blighty but Muhtaris, with his stable going well.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win PRINCE REGAL (3.35 Windsor)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) JOEY’S DESTINY (4.10 Windsor)
BET 2.2pts win NICKELS AND DIMES and 1.4pts win and place ERIC THE GREY, plus 1.2pts win (stakes saver) MUHTARIS (5.10 Windsor)
BET 6pts win CHOCOLA and 2pts win DUKE OF CLARENCE, with 2.5pts win (stakes saver) CENTRED (5.30 Salisbury)
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