CLASSIC CHECK ON THE GUINEAS ROAD TO EPSOM: The Guineas is the best guide to the Derby, claimed trainer John Gosden after the Dante Stakes. So Daqman has checked out recent results, where the Derby winner came from, and what happened to the 2,000 star when he went to Epsom. Surprising results.
WINDSOR SUPERNAP: DAQMAN starts the week with three tips including a SUPERNAP on the Windsor card.
WHO ARE YOU KIDDING, Mr GOSDEN?
The strongest Derby trial is the 2,000 Guineas. That’s all Roaring Lion has done: given a boost to Saxon Warrior. So said trainer John Gosden after the Lion’s Dante Stakes romp. Who can blame him, wanting to turn down the limelight, hoping for a quieter life after fielding the Press hunt for Golden Horn then stepping straight into even greater responsibility, as caretaker of a world-class filly, Enable.
The price of fame is one thing but trainers like Gosden and O’Brien have to be spokesman for stars that go straight home to their box and don’t say a word.
They just leave you wondering how good they are. For instance, just how good is that 2,000 Guineas form? Is it the best trial for the Derby?
Wings Of Eagles (2017) second in the Chester Vase before winning at Epsom. Eminent, sixth in the Guineas, was fourth in the Derby.
Harzand (2016) won the Ballysax Stakes en route to the Derby. Massaat, second in the 2,000 Guineas, was ninth in the Derby.
Golden Horn (2015) his path to Epsom was via the Dante Stakes. Moheet eighth in the 2,000 Guineas was 10th in the Derby.
Australia (2014) third in the 2,000 Guineas before his Derby victory.
Ruler Of The World (2013) won the Chester Vase. The 2,000 Guineas winner, Dawn Approach, was last of 12 at Epsom. Mars, sixth in the Guineas, was also sixth at Epsom.
VERDICT: Oh no John, no John, no! In the modern world of the Classics (you know, with really big international stars like Golden Horn and Enable), it’s hard to find a Guineas horse that even ran in the Derby! They dare not even try Frankel beyond 1m 2f.
If you are talking about those old-fashioned types, Camelot (2012) and Sea The Stars (2009), well they were the first since Nashwan (1989) to do the Guineas-Derby double.
The Dante-Derby double on the other hand has been achieved four times since 1997 via Golden Horn (2015), Authorized (2007), Motivator (2005) and North Light (2004).
And the trainer of the 1997 winner? John Gosden (Benny The Dip), now therefore bidding for a Dante-Derby hat-trick.
Go for it, John! I’ll buy you a form book for Christmas; you’re still using Towser’s old one.
HEART SAYS THE TIN MAN
2.05 Redcar Monday’s action kicks off in Cleveland with a six furlong event for two-year-olds and experience usually counts for plenty at this stage of the season.
Big Ace looks to have a good chance of making it third time lucky. The Tim Easterby trained runner improved on his debut fourth at Pontefract to finish a staying on second at Beverley last time out. He recovered from a tardy start that day and was doing his best work at the finish suggesting the step-up in trip will help.
Richard Fahey provides the main danger in the shape of Zebzardee who was a Beverely third on debut and again shaped as if the six furlongs would be more suitable.
Aisling and Certain Lad are two notable debutants in the race although their pedigrees would suggest they’ll be seen to best effect over longer distances in time. However their presence helps make the market and at 4.2 on BETDAQ Big Ace looks a good bet to start the week.
7.30 Leicester Should be very quick ground at Leicester tonight and disappointingly there’re three runner and four runner races on the card.
The maiden at 7.30 has held up well though and could be a race that will fill a page or two in your notebooks or trackers.
John Gosden’s Dolcissimo was a beaten favourite on debut at Wolverhampton and slightly puzzlingly steps back in trip but she should know plenty more about the game and receives weight from the entire field being the only filly in the race.
Arabian Coast is obviously an interesting Godolphin debutant with a lofty price tag but I think it would be remiss to overlook the chances of The Establishment from David Evan’s yard.
It’s likely he bumped into a very useful sort in the unbeaten Tabdeed when a 3 3/4 length second to him at Nottingham but did finish eight lengths clear of the third Master Poet. The winner has Group 1 entries and I think that form line looks well above average and sets the bar at quite a high level tonight.
7.45 Windsor The best race of the day is the Listed Weatherbys Hamilton Leisure Stakes over six furlongs.
The Tin Man should take all the beating. The James Fanshawe trained runner is comfortably the top-rated in the race and has a ton of class as he proved when winning the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last year.
He gets the fast ground he likes tonight and even if not fully wound up it would be a major shock if he wasn’t good enough to land this event.
Gifted Master won a Newmarket handicap well last time out but surely can’t give weight away to The Tin Man?
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points):
BET 6.25pts win BIG ACE (2.05 Redcar)
BET 5.7pts win THE ESTABLISHMENT (7.30 Leicester)
SUPERNAP BET 20pts win THE TIN MAN (7.45 Windsor)
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