TWO NAPS UP OUT OF THREE: After Ultrasonic (WON 7-2) on Tuesday, Daqman landed another good-value best bet yesterday with Take It To The Max (WON 11-4). His naps return tomorrow.
FOUR LAYS UP OUT OF FIVE: Daqman landed four lays out of five at the St Leger meeting. His lays return tomorrow.
ARC ANTE-POST: Daqman backed a loser in the Arc trials. So why is he going in again? Could be to do with the 16-1 Betdaq value this morning.
The best is yet to come. It is highly likely that we didn’t see the real Meandre when he was beaten by Reliable Man in the Prix Niel trial last week, and trainer Andre Fabre confirms that today by announcing that the colt will be supplemented for the Arc.
The top of the market is awash with older horses and I still think he’s the one among the second-season animals: granted a good draw, 17.0 on Betdaq this morning would be halved on the PMU. I’m on at 9.6 but happy to do my own supplementing with another ‘pound’ at 16-1.
3.45 Newbury (Haynes, Hanson and Clark): Marcus Tregoning farms this race – three wins, the last one in 2008 – but Cavaleiro, the son if his Derby winner, Sir Percy, looks exposed.
You have well-entered-up and odds-on Harvard N Yale running for a trainer who improves them at home against Oscan for a yard which improves them on the track and for which there is never much money.
I know which I wanted to be on early doors at 6.0 in, potentially, a two-horse race with Dettori up.
3.55 Ayr (Bronze Cup): The 1-2-3 of the first sprint of the meeting yesterday went the way of stalls 4-1-8, with the winner racing alone on the far rail and the placed horses coming down the centre.
This seems to support those trainers who chose low numbers for the Ayr Gold Cup tomorrow. Richard Fahey picked stalls 1, 3, 4, 5 and 10 for his ‘gold’ contenders.
And James Fanshawe, who put Mac’s Power, in stall 8, claimed – with some justification from that first result – that the higher percentage of winners come from around the 6, 7, 8 mark when the going is soft.
So I think we can assume from the quotes and the result so far that low-drawn horses in this ‘bronze’ version will be the ones backed during the morning.
Without having the choice this time, Richard Fahey has Coolminx in stall 3 and Ayr CD winner Sunrise Safari in 8 but they have to turn around the form with stablemate Jeannie Galloway.
Coolminx hasn’t shown the pace to win over 5f or 6f for two years, scoring at Newcastle last month over 7f (made all), but he quickens off dead ground and could take them along. Back (I got 17.0) and lay.
David Nicholls, who has three in the first 10 stalls, has such a poor strike-rate right now (2-47) that it’s impossible to tell which, if any of his, are on the ball.
Both winners of the bronze since its inception in 2009 had already won at least a class-2 handicap, which narrows your search to Desert Creek (stall 1), Sunrise Safari (8), La Zamora (16), Zomerlust (18), River Falcon (22) and Layla’s Hero (25)
The case against Mon Brav being ‘different class’ is that his form in class-2 races is 00000. Esprit De Midas has been second at the level, Jeannie Galloway third.
I shall take Jeannie Galloway (11.0 this morning) from a middle draw and, from a low stall, Loki’s Revenge at 28.0, a last season’s improver just now returning to form, also declaring Coolminx as a bet on the account but with the hope of a lay.
The Loki’s Revenge stable, that of William Jarvis, used to raid Ayr, with a near-one-in three win record but hasn’t been up there for more than two years: this seems significant or, to put it another way, I think we’re on a target horse.
4.30 Ayr (Harry Rosebery Stakes): Caledonia Lady has acquired a rating 11lb in front of anything else in this race, and has run fourth in the Lowther and third in the Flying Childers.
A dead cert? Such a nearly horse is seldom value at the price but I opposed one the other day and it romped home. Let’s just say I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ponty Acclaim make a race of it with her.
As for an early position, the only one I can see is Hexagonal each way at 27.0 the win; after all he has been in the frame in a Listed which, theoretically, makes him the second best horse in the race. If only his stable was in better form.
BET (to win 20 points): 4pts win OSCAN (3.45 Newbury)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3pts win JEANNIE GALLOWAY, 1.8pts win COOLMINX and 1.1pts win and place LOKI’S REVENGE (3.55 Ayr)
BET (to win 20 points): 0.7pts win and place HEXAGONAL (4.30 Ayr)
ANTE-POST: 2pts win MEANDRE (Arc de Triomphe at 17.0); already 4.6pts win Meandre at 9.6.