DAQMAN DOSE OF EPSOM SALTS AT 12-1: With ‘place-itis’ plaguing his naps (this week’s results 11233), Daqman took a strong dose of Epsom Salts (WON 12-1) last night. He also had big confidence (9-point bet) in the Leopardstown scorer Harasiya (WON 11-8) and landed 22 points profit on the day.
WHY HE’S THE MAN TO FOLLOW: Daqman digs out the facts. He said of Epsom Salts: ‘Sarah Brotherton has had more winners than the other riders put together (and) Epsom Salts has form on the track of 11310240’. He said of Harasiya: ‘Won in faster time; could be something special.’
Good start for punters, by George! It’s handicap day at Ascot – five of them in a row – for the opening shots of the King George meeting, and previous results since 2002 show no winners bigger than 9-1.
3.20 Ascot: So what we need to find is something on BETDAQ that will close during the day. Well, the exchange give us a massive chance, with a list of offers tallying to only 107% for this race as I write. Compare that with the bookies’ 117% at SP for last year’s renewal.
I believe the front two in the market, Montaser and Romeo Montague, are false favourites: Montaser is by a sire, Rail Link, whose progeny have very poor form on the soft and virtually all success – as Montaser has had – on firm ground.
As for Romeo Montague, he may win, but not with my money on him: when I see the words ‘reluctant to go to start’, ‘slowly into stride’ and ‘stopped quickly’ in the analysis of his last three races, alarm bells ring.
Purification also has questions to answer, having failed to respond to first-time blinkers at Haydock (‘carried head to one side.’) and beaten favourite at Doncaster.
With both Rockfella and Taikoo showing their best results when front-running over shorter, and Spice Fair never having won this high in the handicap, I’m going all out for Martial Law (9.6 over my cornflakes).
Useful on the Flat in Australia up to 20 furlongs, Martial Law broke his maiden over hurdles at Worcester last month, and will be well suited by the strong pace.
3.55 Ascot: Is there another false favourite here? Mac’s Power’s form on good-to-soft or soft ground is 0240403, and all his success is at Kempton Park (standard) and Doncaster (good). He’s 7lb higher than his last winning mark.
Top Cop is too big at 13.0, unless there is rain. He got bogged down in the mud at York, but ‘soft’ on the Knavesmire is peculiar to York, as I’ve said in this column before.
He ran in top-class handicaps on the wide-open spaces of Newmarket in the Spring (beaten head and a nose last time) and the York run has readied him to bounce back here.
4.30 Ascot: This looks a lottery but the three-year-old Ladyship could be a standout. Her in-form handler Sir Michael Stoute trained her dam, Peeress, to win handicaps in her second season and move up the scale remarkably.
She soared some 35lb, eventually winning two Group-1 races in the pattern, the Sun Chariot and the Lockinge. Half as good as her, and Ladyship is a gift at 7.6 as I write.
5.05 Ascot: Fluctuate is another for whom better things beckon (entered in the Celebration Mile) and only bad ground stopped him starring in a top handicap during the winning streak of super-trainer John Gosden.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.3pts win MARTIAL LAW (3.20 Ascot)
BET 1.6pts win TOP COP (3.55 Ascot)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.5pts win LADYSHIP (4.30 Ascot)
BET 12pts win (nap) FLUCTUATE (5.05 Ascot)
BET 2.8pts win ROYAL DUTCH (5.40 Newmarket)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble: INFINITE HOPE (2.20 Nottingham), with LADYSHIP (4.30 Ascot) and FLUCTUATE (5.05 Ascot)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless raised to jackpot level) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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