THE OLD FIRM CAN STRIKE AT CHELTENHAM: Daqman dares to oppose one of the most talked about young novice hurdlers running at Cheltenham today. He’s banking on the old firm of Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh pulling off some big offers on BETDAQ this morning.
FRANKEL FINALE TOMORROW: Weather permitting, tomorrow could be our last view of Frankel as a racehorse. It’s Champions Day at Ascot and who better to tip you the wink but the champion tipster, Daqman.
It’s the old story about The New One. Can a four-year-old be pitched into all-aged novice company and win? This race itself – the 2.10 at Cheltenham – has one answer: in all its history no four-year-old has been placed.
In fact, only one horse of that age has even attempted the race. He was 100-1 shot and finished 96-lengths last of six in 2007. So where does that leave The New One?
Well, he won his first hurdle at Newton Abbot by 26 lengths and 12 lengths on the first day of the month but his rivals came out of bumper company or from feeble attempts to start out over the sticks, beaten a total of 281 lengths in other hurdles outings.
For the next few months novice hurdles and chases are going to bewilder the punter. There are two rules: stick with the leading trainers where you can, if you must bet virtually blind in these events.
Secondly, the results between now and the New Year usually get turned over in the big run-up to the Cheltenham Festival. Rather like three-year-old handicaps on the Flat, what you see in the early weeks is not what you get from midsummer on.
The New One might win this opener but you wouldn’t want to bet on it. In fact, I shall take 2.19 the lay. Remember, you are betting what usually happens, what you can expect in a race like this over the years. Would The New One win slightly more than 50% of the time?
In some duff races, yes. In this one, however, he has to beat seven previous winners of sorts. They’re all running for you, and your lay has to give weight to more than half of them.
I said winners ‘of sorts’ because – without looking at the form – I guessed that, as ever, at this time in the season, you would have bumper scorers and those successful in point-to-points coming together with the odd prior hurdles winner to make up the melting pot of these early novice hurdles.
Wrong. All bar the bumper and point winner Village Vic, and the maiden Mollyow, all have won over obstacles. The New One has to face no fewer than six previous hurdles winners! That makes him a nap lay, if there is such a thing.
The New One could be a superstar (he won a Grade-2 Aintree bumper) but he has it to prove over hurdles at the wrong stage of the season, at the wrong age against six previous winners, two of them from the major stables of Nicholls and Hobbs.
Village Vic is the only one seriously punted against the favourite, as I write. Special Account has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft. No one is barking for him.
Because he’s already won a handicap, yet gets weight from some in this race, because he’s guaranteed to get the trip and, of course, because he’s the Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh runner, I shall take a bit of Grandioso, 8.4 as I write.
They’re not rushing to back him but they’re not rushing to back anything, all caught up in the hype for The New One.
There’s another law of novice hurdling for short-priced horses early season: even if they win today, they are sure to get their comeuppance as fortunes change among the novices in the next few months.
And, even if I have to wait and ‘get him’ then, there will be many more false favourites in this class of race, between now and Christmas. As for novice chases..
Well, they put fences in the way! Mean of them, I know. But, silly as my words of warning may sound, punters tend to forget it. There are previous winners galore – of sorts – in the two beginners’ chases today at 2.45 and 3.55, and interesting to see a strong hand of Irish raiders taking an early look at those Cheltenham fences: they’re already thinking about ‘thieving’ many a big prize in March, which no doubt they will.
There’s another so-called good thing in the second one: Charles Byrnes brings over Sea Of Thunder (3.55) after his debut romp over fences at Clonmel. On almost any other course but Cheltenham, you would say he might well bring home the bacon again, even at 2.72 offers this morning. But this is Cheltenham.
And, though Sea Of Thunder was unlucky not to win a Grade-2 Cheltenham hurdle in December, opposing him you have Ackertac who was, in fact, rated within two pounds of him over hurdles, and Sire Collonges, just another 5lb behind.
Over fences, they could be completely different animals, and this three miles of Cheltenham will sort the men from the boys. I shall hope that another ‘law of averages’ is on my side, that Paul Nicholls continues to dominate the novice-chase scene.
Like The New One, this Sea Of Thunder could be special, but we won’t know until after the race. We have to bet before the race, and it’s just as good a guess – and a much better price – that Sire Collonges will be the one they’re raving about after the event: 5.5 is big value on BETDAQ.
Three more novice hurdles blowing in the wind at Fakenham but it’s the class-3 handicap hurdle (1.30) which probably contains the hardest puzzle of all about the novices in that they come together now from last season to run against each other in all-aged handicaps.
So you have here the handicapper saying that Perpetually and Sainglend were jointly the best of them last season, on 130, but now have to give weight to the six other starters.
You will again note that the four-year-old (Wayward Glance) had trouble coping with older horses over hurdles as a novice earlier in the year but got it right at Worcester.
He seems sure to be a big threat but John Ferguson will know that Perpetually goes best when fresh and that he’s bred for this longer trip, so what he did over shorter was a bonus: Jack Quinlan takes off a valuable 3lb.
I think Tim Vaughan has slotted Spirit Is Needed nicely in off bottomweight: he and jockey Richard Killoran have a 75% strike-rate when they get together at Fakenham.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.8pts win PERPETUALLY and 3.2pts win SPIRIT IS NEEDED (1.30 Fakenham)
LAY 10pts THE NEW ONE and BET 2.6pts win GRANDIOSO (2.10 Cheltenham)
BET 4.8pts win (nap) SIRE COLLONGES (3.55 Cheltenham)
BET 2pts win and place IHEARDU (5.05 Cheltenham)
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