MEMO TO DENIS O’REGAN: THANKS FOR 11-2 WINNER: Daqman owes a big thank you to Denis O’Regan on Memorabilia (WON 11-2 from 7-1), who forced his bet up in the last stride at Doncaster yesterday. O’Regan timed it perfectly on a horse that has to be held up until the line.
FOUR FAVOURITES FAIL AS DAQMAN PREDICTED: Daqman yesterday opposed four morning favourites – American Legend, Special Robon, Tahiti Pearl and Zamdy Man – and all were beaten. He named only American Legend in his bets, but did it the hard way – a BETDAQ place lay at 2.2 – or so he thought. In fact, American Legend drifted to 14-1.
NOW HIS LAYS ARE 30 POINTS IN PROFIT: That makes four lays successful from the last five, and eight out of 11 in 2013. The profit on the 11 is 30 points.
What about the also-rans? Last week I talked about the potential chink in the armour of recent heavy-ground trial winners come Cheltenham if there’s a sound surface at the big festival in March.
Now I’m going to burn the midnight oil looking for horses being beaten in the current bad terrain, but that you must not write off: they will bounce back on better ground. I shall be listing them in this column next week.
Some of the blame for the defeat of genuinely good animals who were trying their damndest to cope with the conditions must go to lesser lights who, with nothing to lose, go motoring off in the mud at full tilt like Top Gun (or Top Gear).
Take the Chatteris Fen Trophy at Huntingdon, one of two better quality races yesterday (class 2), as an example of what I’m trying to get at.
Here were a dozen young novices, mostly raw recruits, but with four of them previous winners, plus a gambled-on favourite, Zamdy Man, and what happens?
The ‘rags’ went off like proverbial bats out of hell (or as the Racing Post analysis puts it mildly, ‘the pace was pretty decent’) and such as Calculated Risk, a winner on good ground (once with just a bit of cut) on the Flat and over hurdles, had no chance.
Don’t give up on him. Assume the seven-lengths winner, Chris Pea Green, is a decent tool (on soft ground). And that the late-challenging runner-up, Zamdy Man, needs further (the Cheltenham hill?).
I rate John Quinn very highly as a trainer, and he won’t need me to tell him that Aintree is much more likely to suit Calculated Risk than the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham.
No way was the track riding good to soft, as returned: despite a strong pace in that trophy race, and elsewhere on the card, three races were run 40, 42 and 47 seconds slow, and the Foxhunter Trial was still going (64 secs slow) when they went down to the start for the bumper!
Another case in point was Memorabilia’s win at Doncaster in a contest full of front-runners (thanks to Denis O’Regan, my bet got up on the line to beat the tearaways).
Similarly today, pace horses Circus Of Dreams, Moleskin, Pete The Feat and State Benefit may well set it up for the stayer Renard d’Irlande (4.00 Kempton), from the stable in form of Venetia Williams and crying out for this step up to 3m.
At Wolverhampton, another pace race could be the 7.30 mile-and-a-half handicap, in which Illustrious Forest, On The Hoof and Teshali should make it the right sort of test for recent bumper winner Capellanus and hurdles-placed Roman Flight.
True Prince, from the Capellanus yard, is by a sprint sire and, now gelded: he could be a revelation dropped back to 6f (5.30). Broxbourne (7.00) thrives on his racing, particularly since stepped up in trip.
Bangor has a ‘National’ of sorts, a 3m 6f slog (3.10), which CD winner Dermatologiste will find familiar: punters have forgotten about him and he’s 26.0 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 0.8pts win and place DERMATOLOGISTE (3.10 Bangor)
BET 5pts win RENARD D’IRLANDE (4.00 Kempton)
BET 3.7pts win TRUE PRINCE (5.30 Wolverhampton)
BET 11pts win (nap) BROXBOURNE (7.00 Wolverhampton)
BET 4pts win ROMAN FLIGHT and 3.2pts win CAPELLANUS (7.30 Wolverhampton)
Daqman’s selections are all backed to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took from the points he’s placed (divide 20 by the stake).
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