THREE LAYS IN A ROW AND TARGET BOOST FOR CHELTENHAM: Daqman, currently on a jackpot sequence of five winning Saturdays in a row, is now on three consecutive winning lays. Time to think about Cheltenham.
STAKES INCREASED IN NEW RECORD BID: There’s a change of tactics for the Festival. He reverts to favourites or paper favourites only and doubles his stake to 20 points.
IT’S ALL IN THE DAQMAN LIBRARY: Daqman’s tipping is transparent: you can follow his jackpots and his lays – and read about the history of his success – in Daqman Library, which shows how he picked 16 consecutive winning lays over three big Cheltenham meetings.
Which of the Cheltenham favourites will bite the dust? There’s a whole string of them at odds on, or at less than 6-4, with most bookies.
Sprinter Sacre (Arkle), Hurricane Fly (Champion Hurdle), Quevega (Mares Hurdle), Grands Crus (RSA Chase), Sizing Europe (Champion Chase), Big Buck’s (World Hurdle) and Long Run (Gold Cup) won’t all win.
If they do, those same bookies will be queuing up to jump off the grandstand roof. Our job as layers is a little less demanding: if we are selective, we can earn enough to pay for our win bets.
I have increased my jackpot stakes in this column lately – in fact, I have a win-100 bet on the Grand National, ante post – so I am adjusting my lays accordingly. I shall lay to win 20 points instead of 10 from today.
This is in line with my routine bets, which are all staked to win 20 points. So now my staking plan is simple: I’m betting to win 20 points or laying to lose 20, unless I go for a jackpot return (30 to 100 points), which is clearly stated as WIN-30 etc.
My Cheltenham record of 16 in a row would now net 320 points to 20-point stakes. That I could achieve 16 with the front two in the market, or paper favourites, suggests that Festival races are not always won by the so-called ‘good things.’
Starting tomorrow, I will be analyzing the stats for each race, day by day, for the corresponding Tuesday to Friday of next week. It’s always a good beginning to know where the winners come from, as regards form and key races.
Incidentally, only two in my list of hot-pots (second paragraph) for next week’s Festival races are odds on in the Betdaq ante-post offers lists, as opposed to five – yes, five – with the bookmakers.
Check it out! That’s what I’ll be doing from tomorrow, as I log the stats and look for more value. But I won’t be laying until the day of the race.
Meanwhile, Terfel’s Toscar (2.45 Hereford) has been well backed this morning for man-in-form David Pipe, getting near-50% of his runners into a place, and cleaning up with the rags. The old man must be proud.
Terfel’s Toscar has significantly moved into the favourite’s spot despite a massive absence of 689 days, never a worry to the Pipes. At time of writing, Qaspal had leapfrogged Doeslessthanme (3.15) at the front of the novices-chase offers list: with only a pound between them over hurdles, Doeslessthanme’s penalty could hand it to Qaspal under Tony McCoy.
Alan King’s stable is the buzz for Cheltenham at a huge 14-1 but Frizzo (3.45) has been cut loose like a lonely dog on a raft this morning: forecast 13-2 but 15.0 as I write.
Medinas (2.15) may, therefore, ‘the one’ for Kingy today though, again, McCoy is menacing: his mount, Twirling Magnet, and Medinas are neck and neck in the market, and it’s 13.0 bar the two.
If the handicapper is right about an animal called Daymar Bay – rated 115 – who was nearly 17lb adrift of Twirling Magnet at Sandown, then McCoy’s mount, though giving 6lb, is in front of Medinas, who has been given 122.
After Twirling Magnet and Qaspal, Schism (3.45) could complete the hat-trick for McCoy on a day quiet enough to turn to the Cheltenham stats and form. That’s my task for the rest of the week in this column butc I shall – hopefully – continue bringing you winners along the way.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 12pts win (nap) TWIRLING MAGNET (2.15 Hereford)
BET 5.7pts win TERFEL’S TOSCAR (2.45 Hereford)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double Qaspal (3.15 Hereford) and Haamaat (5.30 Lingfield)
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