FOUR WINNING DAYS OUT OF FIVE FOR DAQMAN: After failing to fire on Saturday, Daqman followed up his Wednesday-through- Friday three successful days in a row at Goodwood with form figures of 1123 for the four horses that ran for him yesterday.
ONE-TWO AT CHESTER: He gave the one-two in the Listed race at Chester: Van Ellis (WON 2-1) and Night Carnation (2nd 3-1), and the easy winner of the big race at Deauville, Moonlight Cloud (WON 4-5). Profit on the day: 13.60.
SHE’S RACING’S JESSICA ENNIS: Daqman wants to be on one horse on the lady-riders-only card at Carlisle, ridden by the Jessica Ennis of the pro-am scene there tonight. Check it out?
Who are the top jockeys of this Flat season and current top of those riding today? Moore, Hughes, Buick, Hanagan? Nope, not good enough: they can hardly break 20%. I want an even better percentage, winners to rides and, for preference, I want it tied in to a level-stakes profit.
Well, I’ll get just that from Hannah Nunn (who she?) and Serena Brotherton (I’ve heard of her). Hannah is currently on a 25% strike-rate and has just one ride today.
In the last two weeks, Serena has had three rides, all placed: form figures 321 – that winner was a 10-1 shot at Newbury yesterday – and she has mounts almost all through the ladies-only card at Carlisle tonight.
Serena’s staggering strike-rate over the last three Turf years is 25% (2010), 23% (2011) and 23% again this year so far: she has shown a level-stakes profit to punters in nine of the last 11 seasons, 75 points up since the start of 2010.
Yesterday’s Newbury win on Hamilton Hill in a men-and-women amateurs’ race produced this comment in the Racing Post analysis:
‘It was clearly a massive help having Serena Brotherton on his back, who is a terrific judge of pace’ (the English ain’t so good; the comment is).
I’ll leave you to sort out Serena’s best handicap rides but the pro punt must be to find her on level peggings in a stakes race, where the clear advantage of her ability can give you an edge.
The nearest you’ll get to that is the opening claimer (6.05), in which she rides Moheeb (7.0 on BETDAQ this morning), one of only three in the race to have won as high as class 4 since last July. So the horse has a bit of an edge, too.
Hannah Nunn’s Ripon ride is El McGlynn (4.15), who was heading for a hat-trick until things went wrong the last twice: he was barged out of a race at Chester (not unusual on that track) and then encountered firm ground at York.
Back on an easy surface today, yet a tasty 7.0 this morning, El McGlynn may have most to fear from Majestic Manannan, though they’ll all have to catch Dreaming Of Rubies (6.4) if the rain stays away.
Ripon’s feature is, of course, the Armstrong Memorial (3.45 Ripon). I shall start by deleting the older horses (aged over six), which includes The Nifty Fox.
In all his 89-race career, The Nifty Fox has hitherto swerved this Ripon track, with his penchant for going left-handed (though he does seem to like Musselburgh) and he’s 10lb higher than for his last success, at Ayr.
Beckermet is also high in the handicap for a 10-year-old but he would be right back into it if it came up mud, just as Doctor Parkes could be fancied if it dried out.
At this point I was going to say ‘I’ll be taking a chance with Kellys Eye’ but the world and his wife seems to know about him this morning, as three out of four at Ripon and 20lb lower than when second in the race two years ago.
Kellys Eye has clearly been primed for this race, running well at York recently on his first outing since the Spring and only his second of the season. Nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.3pts win CALEDONIAN LAD (2.30 Kempton)
BET 5.7pts win (nap) KELLYS EYE (3.45 Ripon)
BET 3.7pts win DREAMING OF RUBIES and 3.3pts win EL McGLYNN (4.15 Ripon)
BET 2.5pts win OUR PHYLLI VERA, 1.7pts win RAVING MONSUN and 1.7pts win (stakes saver) FLEUR DE LA VIE (5.00 Kempton)
BET 3.3pts win MOHEEB (6.05 Carlisle)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing. Points are what you make them: if your unit stake is £5, then 5pts win is £25.
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