HILLBILLY BOY VALUE AT 5.5 ON BETDAQ: Daqman today goes nap at Wolverhampton on Hillybilly Boy, dropped in class to a claimer which the stable has won twice in recent years: 5.5 on Betdaq this morning.
The mounting pile of odds-on losers is beginning to smell. Don’t even go there, as the terminology has it these days. They’re an infectious disease, all too common among punters. Keep well clear and assume there is no value in them.
Assume? The facts are there for all to see. Even at the big meetings of the last two days, when strong form horses and those hyped from the top yards were expected to breeze home, the cold wind of reality blew some of them away. Or they got stuck in the mud.
LOSERS: Arvika Liegeonniere (fell 8-13), Irish Saint (2nd 10-11), Harlestone Wood (3rd 4-6), Lager Time (unplaced 4-5), The New One (2nd 4-5), Urano (2nd 1-2), Zuzka (unplaced 2-5) and Hinterland (2nd 3-10).
WINNERS: Sprinter Sacre (1-5), Ponte Alexandre (4-7), Hurricane Fly (1-6) and Karazhan (8-11). Losers 8, Winners 4. Loss to 10pt level stake on all odds-on selections: 63.50.
The only horse I, myself, tipped as a single at odds on was Irish Saint. In my defence, he was odds against on BETDAQ (where else) when I made the selection (see Archive) and was value at the time: ’should be odds on,’ I said.
As Charlie Brooks opines this morning in his Telegraph column: ‘How Paul Nicholls’ four-year-old got beaten I will never know.’ Nor I.
My attack on Nicholls’ form was justified yesterday when, at the all-bumper meeting at Wolverhampton, the stable results were: 124232, including the odds-on loser Hinterland. Near misses are worse than ‘duck eggs’ in that they suggest the horses were ‘busy’ but not up to scratch that day, though only two started favourite.
Ditcheat has not won a jumps race since Fago. Just two bumper winners have scored from the yard’s last 22 starters over a fortnight.
Meanwhile, Nicky Henderson, now odds-on for the trainers’ title (what, another ‘odds on’ shot?) got a good sighter to Hurricane Fly for Darlan and Grandouet, when Binocular stayed on to be third in the Irish Champion Hurdle, looking like an old salvage boat against a fast clipper.
Binocular salvaged nothing of his own reputation. Hurricane Fly was not in full sail but will need to be when facing younger opposition at Cheltenham. I won’t be betting odds on!
Meanwhile, back on Polytrack, if ever there was a man in form it’s David Simcock, boasting nine out of 10 won or placed (seven winners, in fact).
He has two runners today: Great Ormond (3.50) was strong but Nave (4.20) looks hard to win with and was easy to back this morning.
The trip was too short for Great Ormond, a winner since over 1m 4f at Wolverhampton, when beaten by Hidden Link on the same course (1m 1f and a bit).
The snag for punters of Great Ormond is that he is worse off at the weights with Hidden Link and his two runs at Kempton have been undistinguished to say the least: 11th of 14 and last of 10,though maybe he’s a better horse now.
Another favourite I don’t feel comfortable with is the bridesmaid (three seconds in a row) Derwentwater facing Camachoice (1.20), whose trainer, Marco Botti, has been one to follow on AW and who is a dab hand with ‘first time in a handicap.’
At Wolverhampton, Hillbilly Boy (2.40) has plied his trade in much better class than this, including at Ascot (class 4), and drops to a contest much loved by his stable.
Bill Turner has won this race twice in recent years and gave Hillybilly Boy a good pipe-opener on his first run back over a trip too far at Lingfield.
The 5.5 on BETDAQ this morning with seven runners left looked good: the offers made up a 108% probability total, so a punter-friendly list.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.4pts win CAMACHOICE (1.20 Kempton)
BET 4.4pts win (nap) HILLYBILLY BOY (2.40 Wolverhampton)
BET 9pts win HIDDEN LINK (3.50 Kempton)
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