JACKPOT WIN BOOSTS PROFIT TO 44 POINTS: Daqman stepped up his stake for a jackpot target of 30 points yesterday with Montaser (WON 7-4 from 3.6 on BETDAQ) and also picked Hajras (WON 5-2) for two wins in three races.
THAT FOLLOWS 61 POINTS ON WEDNESDAY: Only on Wednesday, he had three winners out of four with Lily In Pink (WON 9-2 from 8.4), Lost In Paris (WON 5-2) and Jacob Cats (WON 15-8). More BETDAQ value today.
2.35 York: This race demands known quality: no winner has carried less than 9st 3lb; none has been bigger than 8-1 at SP.
The favourite, Dimension, has shown his best form from the front, but has it all to do to get a position, drawn out in the old chocolate-factory carpark. Haamaat, who has won only on AW, is also drawn in double figures.
It might be an opportunity to slip his field for Citrus Star, a huge 11.0 on BETDAQ over my cornflakes. Has had one run (on bad ground) since an excellent Goodwood third at this level in May. Form figures since his debut with ‘firm’ in the returned going: 131003.
2.55 Ascot: Bajan Tryst, Catfish, Desert Law, Es Que Love, Fitz Flyer, Fratellino, Waffle and Whaileyy are all in next week’s Stewards Cup.
Medicean Man won this race last year but is officially 8lb higher, and has never won with the word ‘firm’ in the returned going.
Also low drawn, Es Que Love, who finished in front of Medicean Man at Newmarket, makes more appeal, as an improving three-year-old who has won on good to firm and tackled Group-1 company last time out.
There isn’t much between Catfish, Desert Law, Taajub and Dancing Freddy. Catfish has a high-draw opportunity from the split and is another who will like the ground, though there is the worry of her stalls behavior last time.
The ideal in a sprint like this would be to find a firm-ground horse actually down in the weights: that would be Zero Money, offered at 9.8 as I write, and really only now starting his season where others are well exposed.
I could bet half a dozen in the race but the value clearly lies with Es Que Love (16.0 on BETDAQ), back to 5f here after finishing close up behind Black Caviar at Royal Ascot.
3.10 York: Four of the last five winners of this had already won a Group race. That leaves us choosing from seven, of which Premio Loco has the years to give away, and I can’t trust Marcret or Planteur on firm ground.
Afsare’s Italian form so far translates only to Listed level over here, but he has a big chance to prove otherwise today. Sri Putra, behind him at Capanelle, hasn’t won on turf for more than two years and Side Glance hasn’t even tried 10 furlongs before.
Afsare had Ransom Note in arrears at Newmarket in the Spring: that one has been waiting for the ground to dry out but, like Side Glance, has no form at this trip.
The CD winner who loves to hear his feet rattle is Wigmore Hall. At 9.0 on BETDAQ, I rate him the danger to Afsare; in fact, they’ve finished in the frame together before
3.45 York: Richard Fahey has won it twice recently and the last time his Kaldoun Kingdom was as low as today’s 94 mark was his CD win as part of a hat-trick in 2009.
But, like Colonel Mak, who preps for the Stewards’ Cup, he has had most of his success with cut in the ground, and maybe El Viento (12.5 on BETDAQ) is the Fahey plot today.
If you bet on the Pricewise favourite, Head Space, and he’s leading near the line, don’t count your chickens: he’s twice shied or tried to unseat coming up to the winning post. Fancy a late lay?
Head Space shot up 12lb for scorching home in a class-3 at Ayr in June but, in fact, the time was slow, and the placed horses have won only in class 4, 5 and 6.
Van Ellis is worth a pound, dropped back in trip, and 16.0 this morning, but I don’t see this crazy Dash as a race to raise my stakes to jackpot level.
4.50 York: Itlaaq is a daft price at offers of 12.0 this morning. He won the race last year and canny local trainer, Mick Easterby, openly declares his intention to win it again by asking Frankie Dettori to stay on and ride.
This is not a day to spend your Goodwood money; more one to take a chance at small stakes and hope to fill the Goodwood wallet. This is a speculative nap: but it’ll act on the track and on the ground, and it lacks nothing in the value stakes.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2pts win CITRUS STAR (2.35 York)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.4pts win ZERO MONEY, and 1.7pts win and place ES QUE LOVE (2.55 Ascot)
BET 5pts win AFSARE and 2.5pts win WIGMORE HALL (3.10 York)
BET 1.7pts win EL VIENTO, and 1.3pts win and place VAN ELLIS (3.45 York)
BET 1.8pts win (nap) ITLAAQ (4.50 York)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Es Que Love (2.55 Ascot), Wigmore Hall (3.10 York) and Itlaaq (4.50 York)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless raised to jackpot level) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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