MASTER TRAINER MULLINS IS YOUR MAN: Willie Mullins can pile on the winners with Naas today and Fairyhouse tomorrow the likely survivors of the frost and snow. Fairyhouse checks the course this afternoon but was regarded as ‘raceable’ when the inspection was announced.
TIGER IS TOP AT KEMPTON: John Gosden has landed half a dozen in the first two this month and puts the blinkers on Fluctuate at Kempton, where Daqman rates Toga Tiger a value bet.
Which trainer is way ahead of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson? I’m talking winners. And I’m talking prizemoney won. The answer in each case is Willie Mullins.
Despite limited opportunities in Ireland, he has won nearly half a million more than Nicholls and, granted a surge of another couple of dozen winners, would have a total to equal Nicholls and Henderson combined!
And that surge could start today as Mullins, with a fabulous 34% strike-rate (Henderson hits at 27%, Nicholls at 25%), looks set for a hatful at Naas.
He then has Tony McCoy flying over, with the chance of two or three more at Fairyhouse tomorrow, while there are only one or two prospects of jumps racing resuming in England before next weekend.
Only Ayr on Wednesday is currently raceable, and they will be trying hard there to keep covered up and hold out against the snow.
Mullins employs four different jockeys at the Naas meeting today, starting with the inimitable Ruby Walsh on Mr Groocock (1.00) and So Young (1.35). Ruby passes the baton to Andrew Lynch (Aupcharlie 2.10) and Davy Russell (Un Atout 2.45) and finally to Willie’s son, Patrick, on Super Mix in the pro-am bumper (4.20).
Aupcharlie and Un Atout look like hot material for your Daq Multiples but So Young is 2-1 in what seems like a two-horse race and Mr Groocock (5.3 the win) is a better price for a place than offers for the favourite, Morning Assembly.
Morning Assembly deserves to be hot after his good second at Leopardstown with four of today’s field behind, and Mr Groocock, who prefers top of the ground, is destined for novice chasing before long. But he’s unexposed at today’s trip and has Ruby on board for the first time.
1.35 Naas (Limestone Lad Hurdle) The stats rule out the favourite -the nearest any horse has come carrying less than 11st 3lb is fourth – and the trouble with Solwhit is that he’s won only once in three years, albeit second four times since to Hurricane Fly.
Solwhit returned to action last month over 2m 4f after an absence of nearly two years. Most of his success, including an Irish Champion Hurdle, has come at 2m but he probably needs further now that he’s nine years old.
However, front-runner Whatuthink is expected to make this a real stamina test in the mud and, if I am a Monksland man for the World Hurdle, then I have to give So Young his chance here.
So Young has been accused of being ‘soft’ but seemed an improved horse on the last day, closing down the gap behind Monksland from his moderate seasonal debut run at Fairyhouse to little more than three lengths at the line in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, with Whatuthink fourth on today’s terms.
Ruby Walsh is back in the saddle for the first time since the partnership completed an odds-on hat-trick at Navan a year back.
They were around 3.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning and I thought that offer a better reflection of their chance than the odds being asked for about Solwhit, who has had a quiet time at home since his comeback for fear of the ‘bounce’ factor.
1.45 Kempton The Hawk Wing mare Zing Wing is 3-6 at Kempton with 7f form there of 21110. Snag is her form figures become 0000 on AW with a rating of 69 or higher. She has 70 here.
They’re claiming off Dancing Welcome, who returns to 7f at Kempton for the first time in two years: most of her form is over 6f. Conversely, Climaxfortackle has won only at a mile-plus at Wolverhampton.
Big Sylv is another Wolver regular but trainer James Unett is in good form and she seems the biggest danger to Glastonberry, since Amosite is very weak in the market at 14.0.
Front-runner Amosite hung on to dead-heat with Glastonberry for second at Lingfield last month and is better off at the weights today but she’s drifted like a lonely dog on a raft and all the barking is for Glastonberry.
2.20 Kempton Leading trainer on the course, and in top form right now, is Andrew Balding but visors need to make a big difference to Angelic Upstart. The morning market gave a nervous nod: 6.2 in a 106% list of offers in the orange.
Haftohaf fronted the list but this is not a strong course for Marco Botti and, teamed up with Andrea Atzeni, the pair have only four wins here from 48 attempts. Uninspiring for a 4.4 shot whose success has all come at Wolverhampton.
Light From Mars has also shown his best AW form at Wolver and is getting on in years. Toga Tiger (5.0 this morning), two years his junior, looked good on that course on the last day and is already a winner at Kempton.
There was no money this morning for Red Somerset after his poor run behind Haftohaf. In the first three in all 10 outing last year, ‘Red’ may need to drop a few pounds to recover that form.
2.55 Kempton Gary Moore has had five winners and three seconds form his last 10 runners but it will be a master stroke if he can get the moody Gaelic Silver home after poor jumps form.
Stuart Williams (Aquilonius) had a terrible 2012 at Kempton, with nothing to show for 40 runners, and the 11-year-old Kames Park is unlikely to defy a penalty.
Spifer and Greylami are also on losing runs and I’m ‘taking out’ the 4.0 Spifer from 106% list in the orange, which gives me money to spend on Noble Silk, who turned round Lingfield form with Wildomar here last time., and Fluctuate.
Trainer John Gosden’s current form figures are 222221 and Fluctuate is rested and down in grade from a Newmarket run in the summer, and blinkers are applied: 3.7 on BETDAQ in yet another punter-friendly race.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 10pts win SO YOUNG (1.35 Naas)
BET 10pts win GLASTONBERRY and 2.7pts win (stakes saver) BIG SYLV (1.45 Kempton)
BET 5pts win TOGA TIGER (nap, 2.20 Kempton)
BET 7.4pts win FLUCTUATE and 2.2pts win (stakes saver) NOBLE SILK (2.55 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 5pts win doubles and 2pts win treble Morning Assembly (1.00 Naas), Aupcharlie (2.10 Naas), Un Atout (2.45 Naas)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points, except in Daq Multiples.
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