TWO 14-1 DAQMAN WINNERS ON ONE GLORIOUS DAY: Jackpot-king Daqman jumped on the Mark Johnston bandwagon at Glorious Goodwood yesterday not with the Scatter Dice gamble which failed but on the stable’s two 14-1 winners.
14-1 HURRICANE: Daqman had tipped the ‘Hurricane’ along with Montaser (WON 7-4 from 3.6) for a race at Ascot last Friday and didn’t lose faith: Hurricane Higgins (WON 14-1) landed the Goodwood opener, in which he also tipped Never Can Tell (3rd 10-1).
WADE IN AT 14-1: His second Johnston scorer was the grey Sir Graham Wade (WON 14-1) to make it 37 points profit on another memorable day’s big-race betting.
20.0 AND 16.0 BIG BETDAQ VALUE: It was the second time in five days that Daqman had bagged big BETDAQ value, Hurricane Higgins having been selected at 20.0, following Saturday’s success with Van Ellis (WON 8-1 from 16.0).
There’s been a big draw bias at Goodwood this week. Some 16 out of 21 places on the round course have gone to horses from single-figure stalls. The 2.15 and 4.55 could follow this tendency today, particularly the opener.
2.15 Goodwood: A low draw is already known to dominate in this race, with the five most recent winners coming from stalls 6, 5, 4, 7 and 3.
It’s one of Mark Johnston’s races – he landed gambles with Road To Love (2006) and Roman Republic (2009) – and the stable managed to score with Landaman on Tuesday from stall 17, steered beautifully by Darren Egan.
While Johnston’s Fennell Bay has another formidable task out wide here in 18, Egan switches to Mick Channon’s Devine Guest from stall 9: that one showed up well at Newbury in June in a maiden won by the Irish Oaks winner, Great Heavens.
It’s not playing such a wild card to believe that, with Devine Guest off a really light weight and bred for middle distances, Darren will be able to work into a good position up the hill, then cruise to the turn and hope a stone-and-a-half concession from some of the class horses on the final climb will be enough to hold on.
In-form (but in the sick bay) Sir Henry Cecil has Wrotham Heath (stall 7) dropping back to handicaps after a Group-3 try at Royal Ascot, where Fennell Bay won the King George V Handicap (Pilgrims Rest fifth and now in stall 8).
Beaufort Twelve (stall 3) has already won at Goodwood this season, and Kieren Fallon now takes over from a claimer, but soft-ground sort Opinion (in 5) was silenced on the course in the Spring behind Grandeur (16).
Mark Johnston has managed to get two of his other runners, Prussian and Switzerland, side by side in stalls 1 and 2 but that will require some real jockeyship from Callan and De Sousa to stop them being pinched out on the rail.
The likely favourite Asatir has scope for further improvement after only three races, all winning ones, but is drawn 17 and Godolphin hasn’t shone this week as expected.
Form? On a line through Stature and Razorbill, Asatir can’t beat Beaufort Twelve (11.5 on BETDAQ). Grandeur (13.0 this morning) comes out best of a classy trio in front of Wrotham Heath and Fennell Bay and, from that, Pilgrims Rest, Prussian and Opinion seem to be held. Wild card, Devine Guest (40.0).
A good run for Beaufort Twelve would be a strong pointer to Silver Lime (5.25): the pair were one-two on this course at the Predominate meeting.
2.45 Goodwood (Richmond Stakes): Richard Hannon is going for a five-timer, and the favourite for a four-timer. Add them together and you get Master Of War?
No, not over my cornflakes. Ahern is heading the market, though the same question mark hangs over both: can they repeat classy soft-surface Royal Ascot form on top of the ground today?
Having said ‘top’ of the ground, races were run slower than average yesterday and, though it should have dried out, the going depends on whether there are any further showers today.
It’s a tricky one, if you remember that Cay Verde was a shorter SP than Ahern for the Norfolk Stakes and Euxton Hall was shorter than Coventry ninth Master Of War at Newbury recently.
I can’t tell you the winner, but I can tell you that, price-wise, it all adds up to Euxton Hall being too big at 19.0, as I write, and his running style suits the track.
3.15 Goodwood Cup There have been six winning favourites out of the last eight. Lost In The Moment was beaten only a head in the 2011 renewal (Aaim To Prosper sixth, Chiberta King ninth), and is now the right age (8 out of 10 have gone to horses of five to seven years).
Nine out of 10 winners in the decade had won a Group race or been placed in a Group 1; five out of six had run at Royal Ascot in the same year.
Askar Tau fits all the criteria but was right out of the back door in this race (9th of 10) as a four-year-old. Fifth in the last two runnings of the Ascot Gold Cup, his best form is on firm ground (2009 Doncaster Cup).
Colour Vision was five lengths or so in front of him when he landed the Gold Cup in June (Saddler’s Rock third; Nehaam sixth) and won the Sagaro Stakes over today’s trip in the Spring.
Saddlers Rock (Doncaster Cup winner 2011) looks much more likely to trouble Colour Vision today – better off at the weights for less than a length in the Gold Cup – and may have too much speed for Ascot Stakes winner, Simenon.
But Nehaam could be a trump card, if he reproduced his Ascot form of last backend, with a stone turnaround (albeit weight for age was involved) on Colour Vision, whom he couldn’t cope with over the extra half mile on soft at Ascot but, as a keen goer, might get him for speed on this tricky track.
Again Neeham’s chance depends on drying ground. He’s my each-way bet at 19.0 in a fabulous 101% list of BETDAQ offers, as I write. I think Colour Vision such a ferocious battler, he might stave off Saddler’s Rock again.
4.50 Galway Hurdle: County Hurdle third and fourth Sailors Warn and Plan A, at 14.0 and 19.5 BETDAQ value, fit the trend in this race for young horses (6 out of 7 winners aged five and six).
Princeton Plains (10.5) is fit from the Flat and won at this Galway Festival last year. Lexi’s Boy may need another year and Drive Time has been whacked by the handicapper.
4.55 Goodwood Keen-goer Hamza is a massive offer at 32.0, dropped back from the mile of Royal Ascot’s Britannia Handicap. Stirring Balad (7.6 as I write) is on the upgrade. Both are well drawn.
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2.8pts win BEAUFORT TWELVE, 2.5pts win GRANDEUR and 0.75pts win and place DEVINE GUEST (2.15 Goodwood)
LAY 10pts AHERN, and BET 1pt win and place EUXTON HALL (2.45 Goodwood)
LAY 10pts place SIMENON, plus WIN-30 JACKPOT: 10pts win COLOUR VISION, 1.6pts win and place NEHAAM, and 6.2pts win (stakes saver) SADDLER’S ROCK (3.15 Goodwood)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.1pts win PRINCETON PLAINS, 2.3pts win SAILORS WARN and 1.6pts win and place PLAN A (4.50 Galway)
BET 3pts win and place STIRRING BALAD, and 0.6pts win and place HAMZA (4.55 Goodwood)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing. Points are what you make them: if your unit stake is £5, then 5pts win is £25.
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