BETDAQ VALUE OFFERS: Did you know that Daqman’s Tuesday hatful of winners, which returned 69 points at SP, would have produced 83 points had you backed them at the morning offers he quoted?
BETTING VALUE TIPPING: Did you know that Daqman’s weekend jackpot bets have won, week after week this autumn, the Ayr Gold Cup, the Cambridgeshire, the Irish Cesarewitch and another big one, in which was last Saturday’s 10-1 scorer, Nadiya De La Vega?
BETDAQ BEATS SP: So wise up and follow the king of the tipsters on the value exchange. Those jackpot winners started 16-1, 10-1 and 9-1, and you’ve seen how BETDAQ early offers score over those SPs time after time.
Havin’ A Good Time he is not! The horse of that name is easy to back at Southwell today, as Roger Varian slips deeper into the doldrums with 29 straight losers in the last three weeks.
The trainer won with his only previous runner here this year but the paper favourite is giving weight all round (3.35) on this first Fibresand outing.
It’s a ‘no-no’, too, for another favourite at the same meeting, No Dominion (1.30), with trainer James Given also out of form with 18 losers in a row in the same period.
I won’t be backing No Dominion, even though the stable is 50% in this kind of race at Southwell and the form says I should. It’s a question of value.
At short prices, you need to know that everything is on your side. You don’t want to be following a trainer who is struggling for winners. Win or lose, Havin A Good Time and No Dominion won’t be carrying my money.
The stable I like at Southwell today is James Tate’s Newmarket outfit and Cape Explorer (4.40) has done well for me in the past but, for a front-runner, can he overcome a high draw and, for that matter, will he adapt to Fibresand?
At Ludlow (4.50), Ferdy Murphy is a trainer who has a purple patch every season but, until that day comes, you are better off opposing him.
So it was that I thought forecast favourite at 7-2 was not to be believed; sure enough, Secret Desert is out to third spot in the BETDAQ market, as I write, at an easy 7.2.
My negative at Carlisle is Ballymartin King (5.30), despite Tony McCoy’s taking the ride. Trainer Tim Easterby hasn’t had a winner on the course for seven years and 37 attempts.
Finally, I get some positives but they’re in the same race: Michael McAlister has struck up a win-win partnership (two from two) with Pas Trop Tard (4.30 Carlisle).
And Ahyaknowyerself will be trying for his life under Richard Johnson – don’t they all – since he goes up 6lb in future. But McCoy’s Ballyclough is the horse I look for at this time of year.
While competition is modest, a horse that goes well fresh can be got up for a race he wouldn’t otherwise win. Ballyclough has already done that twice.
I also fancy Vamizi (3.55) first run back. His trainer, Lucinda Russell has a 50% win-and-place strike-rate just now (10-20, four of them winners).
Though the McCoy mount in this also scored from an isolated run, that was a hurdle and top-weight Mister Hyde never quite got his act together over fences last season.
Power Pack Jack wins when fresh but he’s had that chance and finished only third to The Magic Bishop, who is put up for that to a mark he has struggled off before. O Crotaigh wins only at Market Rasen.
My tip for Gatewood in the Melbourne Cup could be a ‘stumer’, though I got 16.0 when bookies were as low as 9-1. Gatewood’s penalty for winning the Geelong Cup isn’t as big as expected, so he will have trouble getting into the race at Flemington.
The handicapper said he treated the Geelong heat as ‘any other race’, which is strange considering its propensity for providing the Flemington winner.
Yet he’s been harsh on Dunaden for winning another prolific trial, the Caulfield Cup. Could it be that John Gosden’s luck has finally run out for the season? Knowing his American connections, I think we should look closely at the Breeders’ Cup cards before coming to the conclusion.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each VAMIZI (3.55 Carlisle) and BALLYCLOUGH (nap, 4.30 Carlisle), with 5pts win double and 1pt win treble with BIT OF A JIG (3.25 Carlisle)
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