NICHOLLS KNOWS THE TIME OF DAY: One of Daqman’s horses to follow, Easter Day, runs at Huntingdon, and he makes the Paul Nicholls’ horse the hub of his Daq Multiples but rates a Tony McCoy mount at Sedgefield as better value for the nap.
He’s the only one who hasn’t seen daylight. My horses to follow have been piling up the winners, including five out of eight this year (see Daqman Library – CLICK HERE).
But Easter Day has been conspicuous by his absence, and has his first run of 2013 at Huntingdon. We have to trust that Paul Nicholls knows the right time for Day is today. Here’s what I wrote when I reviewed my list for the new year:
‘Back-to-back winner of novice hurdles, achieving a rating of 140. May not have enjoyed himself on heavy at Newbury stepped up to Grade-1 company (the winner had already scored on heavy). Worth another chance in an easier race on a better surface.’
Well, he plummets in class all right, three grades down to Listed, which is four levels above anything in the Huntingdon (3.30) opposition. And that means he’ll be odds on.
The odds-on favourite has been a feature of our racing this winter and, as we’ve seen this week already, a hot favourite can be cold comfort: as many have been losing as winning, and the percentages are, therefore, firmly against.
So it is that I shall let Easter Day run with my 10-point horses-to-follow stake. I’ve tried to reduce any odds-on naps to those I think might be a better price nearer the ‘off.’ In some cases, however, as with Easter Day, his easing in price would be a negative.
What’s the difference between a stake in this column now and a routine 10 points in a horses-to-follow situation? The answer is that, if you follow a list of horses, mine or your own, you should have a separate staking plan. This column charges 10 points to each horse simply because you need to know how the list is doing to a level stake.
Meanwhile, my lays are running to plan at around 72% after Danziger cost me at Kempton yesterday. I’d lay him again in this column, if we could turn back the clock to yesterday morning, now I know I could get out just before the race when only one other horse was backed against him.
In the event, a win saver on the favourite at 5-4 was good value. Keep your BETDAQ up all day if you want to win money.
Three BETDAQ-sponsored races out of four at Kempton were won by apprentices and at Ludlow no fewer than five winners were claimed off. This after Saturday’s big win by Thomas Garner.
Garner has one ride today, Majorica King (5.00 Huntingdon), as big as 7.6 this morning in the BETDAQ orange but joint-top rated by the Racing Post, which suggests that Garner’s 7lb puts him clear of the others.
It will be a feather in Garner’s helmet if he can do what Tony McCoy failed to do with this maiden on the last day, when he was beaten favourite – albeit a grade higher – at Fakenham.
Though Garner’s claim puts ‘King’ in for some cash, I disagree with the Racing Post’s adjusted ratings: I think that easily the best handicapped horse in the race is William Hogarth, if he can recover his old form. He’s 17lb lower than for his last win.
William Hogarth reappears after a break but his travelling from Pembrokeshire, with Daryl Jacob booked, suggests that he will do better than his 12.5 offers this morning suggest. The stable has a 38% strike rate when crossing the country to this venue.
Talking of strike rates, Nicky Henderson is 3-5 in the novices’ chase (3.00) and Tetlami looks another one for the trainer and jockey Barry Geraghty. He was slightly better than evens this morning.
Tony McCoy goes all the way to Sedgefield, hungry as ever. I can’t see his mount Big Water beating Doyle Carte (2.10), whose standing has soared with the excellent form of those around him in his races.
I think he might just about give a stone to Three Kingdoms, who’s twice had the benefit of plenty of weight allowance but failed.
McCoy was a good price, offered at 3.7, to win on Soudain (3.10), with a maiden in second spot in the market. That was value for the nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 8.3pts win DOYLY CARTE (2.10 Sedgefield)
BET 7.4pts win (nap) SOUDAIN (3.10 Sedgefield)
BET 2.7pts win MAJORICA KING, and 1.7pts win and place WILLIAM HOGARTH (5.00 Huntingdon)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Tetlami (3.00 Huntingdon), Soudain (3.10 Sedgefield) and Easter Day (3.30 Huntingdon)
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