BETDAQ VALUE IS THE ONLY WAY TO BET: Daqman continues a series in which he discusses the meaning behind the odds and how to get value daily on BETDAQ. For the last two weeks he’s highlighted Daq Value races as the only tipster who tells you why and how, and even what went wrong!
Get out your ‘cristal’ ball for Saturday. Looking forward is often all we’ve got in a cold snap and, in the hope that the weekend survives, check out the decs for the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
This morning you would have found, as ever, that you could nick at least a point from the bookies with horses at the front of the market on BETDAQ.
And, further down the line, of course, there were bigger offers to be had, the bigger the outsider. Cristal Bonus and Hunt Ball were both 14.0, though as low as 8-1 (Ladbrokes) and 10-1 (Bet365) respectively with the fixed-odds layers.
The same search applies on a daily basis: compare BETDAQ with the bookies, looking for value, but also trying to spot anomalies that suggest the bookie has taken a hit – or a hint! – but the money has not been passed on to the exchange.
Be warned, however, that such a shortener with the layers can be one of four (or more) indicators: as I’ve said, the money may be down though, less likely with one horse in an ordinary race, we could be talking general liabilities; alternatively, the firm may be running for cover because of ‘information received’ or intimate knowledge of stable methods; finally, it could be a tease.
For instance, have you ever heard of a trial winner, whether in a two-year-old test for next year’s Classics, or in the jumps pattern toward Cheltenham, that wasn’t cut in price and hollered from the rooftops?
In the mix are bookies running scared, the rush to get their name in the headlines, and a genuine few bob already placed by shrewdie connections at long odds that means a liability blot in the book once it has proved itself.
You can bet blind at the races today – take the odds that come – but you will be better off, and enjoy a more interesting and profitable sport, if you decide what odds a horse is worth (preferably ‘price up’ the whole race).
Compare the price you think you want with the offers on BETDAQ; then compare those with the fixed odds currently available in the Oddschecker bookies’ list.
Like Cristal Bonus and Hunt Ball, you’ll find value (better offers than you expected) on the Daq and, if those offers look even bigger because the bookies are skinny, you are clearly onto something.
Your overall aim is to get value all, or most of, the time so that, in the long run, you can’t lose in the sense that, if you are getting 10-1 about every 5-1 shot, then theoretically, you will be winning twice as many races as the punter at SP.
But it ain’t that easy. Apart from those bookie intrigues I mentioned earlier (and there are many more), look out for false trails. The main pitfall is that the price is big for a reason: the horse is not going to win.
If a decent form horse with a well-known trainer is out with the ‘rags’ in the market, nine times out of ten that horse is ‘not expected’ that day. You can put it down to whatever you like but the animal may simply be off-colour or the whole string under a cloud.
It’s your job to discover whether it’s because of the wrong trip, the wrong ground, the wrong race (too high in class, too high in the weights and/or ratings?).
The worst scenario is the difficult borderline case. Like yours truly betting at Musselburgh yesterday. I’ve made no secret in this column that the Edinburgh track is not one of my favourites but they only spin the wheel where there’s a table.
I reckoned Latin Connection was a 5-1 chance in the Weatherbys Printing Handicap Hurdle: with McCoy aboard, the 8.2 on BETDAQ looked big. But was it too big? Did it indicate a morning lack of conviction, a negative?
Latin Connection eased right out in the market on course (plenty of 9-1 and double figures on the exchanges) until a late flurry – he really was ‘too big’ at 9s – saw the beast cut back to 6-1.
It was always an open race and a 20-1 shot won it, with Latin Connection held up in the rear, finishing well, and less than a length off first-prize money. Worth my pound but borderline as regards price and in running.
And, when you come to the read his form in future – and, indeed, for all today’s runners – take a look at the betting for each past result. The SP, and market movements, of the horse can tell you more about the placing achieved.
Was the horse ‘not expected’? Or did it do better/worse than expected? Did it do better because it was a slow-run race; other horses fell; the favourite had an off-day? Race reading and form study is far more than the bare result but we’ll talk some more about that another day.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.6pts win KAITUNA (1.10 Fontwell)
BET 2.7pts win WAABEL (1.30 Lingfield)
BET 5.4pts win (nap) PERTUIS (1.50 Sedgefield)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
