7-2 NAP FOR DAQMAN: Daqman landed his nap, the unraced Ultrasonic (WON 7-2), at Yarmouth yesterday, shading a profit which puts him spot on 40 points in pocket over the last two days.
5.40 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Handicap): The shape of the race, suggested by past performance, involves Tax Break taking the lead on the rail, with another front-runner, April Fool, trying to get across from an outside draw.
Mishrif, staying in touch on the rail, takes them on from two out. He ran a better race last time out, when put to CD, and Richard Hughes is a forceful booking.
Aleqa was held by Elspeth’s Boy (non runner) on turf but Chris Wall is in terrific form and this three times 7f winner can boast success at class-4 handicap level, which also applies only to Aldermoor and old-timer Seneschal.
Aldermoor drops himself out, so I’m not sure stall 2 will suit; I expect him to get swallowed up and have to switch round them. Cootehill Lass is a plater; Saharia has won only his maiden; and Treasure Way is short of pace, so was upped to a mile-plus last time: that did no good either.
So it is that I see Aleqa’s 9.2 as good value on Betdaq this morning, with Aldermoor a stakes saver but with reservations about his stalls position.
Those familiar with my staking plan will know that Aleqa is backed to win 20 points (2.4 x 8.2 = 20) with 1.1 points on Aldermoor covering the 2.4 laid out on Aleqa. Same for all bets, except when stated as a jackpot, double whammy or banker.
6.10 Kempton (Betdaq Multiples Handicap): It’s noticeable that we’ve dropped to class 6 here, with only five runners having previously won a race.
But that means their level is more or less known, and is an open invitation to top trainers like Hannon and Bell to move in with an unexposed type.
However, Hannon’s Omnipotent has already made two handicap attempts and there’s no indication in the market that improvement is expected, stepping him up in trip for a third time since July.
But Bell’s runner, Joe Strummer, has leapfrogged the favourites and taken a market lead, as I write, also stepping up again in trip and seemingly improving for it last time out.
But note that he is by Librettist out of a Nureyev mare, so I wouldn’t bet the mortgage that he will be suited by the 12 furlongs. I also find that Gower Rules has an exposed look about him, after 26 runs already.
I’d be more interested in Come On The Irons and Guards Chapel, both of whom have done the job before and both having excuses for their latest starts, when ‘Irons’ was running over 2m and ‘Chapel’ was found out by soft ground. Far too big at 8.2 and 12.5, respectively. Dutch ‘em!
6.40 Kempton (Back Or Lay At betdaq.com Nursery): As I was saying, the top trainers like to sneak in among the exposed horses at this level with first-time handicappers, and here they are, Charlton, Dunlop, Noseda and Meehan. A low draw would help.
Noseda’s Valiant Runner (stall 2) might attempt to make all, as he tried at Newmarket but was 100-1 that day, which suggests that he’s shown zilch at home.
Dunlop’s Highly Likely (drawn high) looks highly unlikely on what we’ve seen of him so far. Meehan’s Superinjunction has looked ordinary and Fallon, who rode her at Kempton in July, seems to prefer Flying Pickets. But Steve Drowne switches back to Charlton’s Loxton Lad, whose Leicester run suggested some progress.
Bewilder and Cato Minor have hinted at ability but, gun to my head, you’d have to take Spirit Of The Law’s improved Leicester form for Ed Dunlop and Jamie Spencer. However, if the editor puts his pistol down, I’ll call: no bet.
7.10 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Maiden Fillies’ Stakes): The big yards all want in! And no wonder. This £4,000-plus to the winner is the evening’s top prize.
It’s sometimes an idea to work backwards (you do Daqman, you do, I hear you cry), like this: what would you be happy taking out of the race for conditions races, even the Pattern, or at least for black type?
It wouldn’t be Whispered and, if she wins this, you can more or less say: the race was ordinary after all. She’s had her chances and M Stoute rarely reaches for eye-shields and other adornments at this stage of a filly’s career: last time out, she improved with a visor but I think Fallon will be giving her the boot, as he did then; if it doesn’t work it’s the Order Of The Boot, I would guess.
I’d prefer Moment Juste, of those with three or more starts; at least she ran well on this course after a poor start in June.
But the one I’d be interested in for the future is Sweet Lavender, who has speed and stamina in her breeding and looked to be learning a lot at Kempton first time when, after flattening out, she ran on again with interest.
After a hectic afternoon at Sandown Park, Frankie Dettori takes over on Sweet Lavender, who rates the nap.
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.3pts win ADAM’S ISLAND and 2.2pts win MUIRHEAD (4.10 Listowel)
BET 2.4pts win ALEQA and 1.1pts win (stakes saver) ALDERMOOR (5.40 Kempton)
BET 2.7pts win COME ON THE IRONS and 1.7pts win GUARDS CHAPEL (6.10 Kempton)
BET 9.5pts win (nap) SWEET LAVENDER (7.10 Kempton)