ABC GUIDE TO THE GRAND NATIONAL: Today Daqman checks out the Grand National field for age, weight, jumping ability and stamina. The ABC key is as follows:
* A: Carries 10st 6lb to 11st 1lb (10 winners out of 12 this century)
* B: Aged 9 or 10 (nine of the 12)
* C: Has won a chase over 3m or more (12 out of 12)
* D: Has never fallen over fences
* E: Has run over the National course
* F: Has won a chase on soft ground
* G: Current top-20 jockey (8 out of 10)
West End Rocker almost has it all! Rarely does a horse fit so many stats: Alan King’s 10-year-old Becher Chase winner has never fallen and has been placed in 13 of 16 completed races.
No horse has landed the Becher-National double in the same season in the 20 years but three horses have won both in different years: Earth Summit, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch.
ABCDEF WEST END ROCKER All the rage for last year’s National after back-to-back wins but lost his form in the Haydock trial and drifted in the betting before brought down in the big race itself.
Bounced back with 22-lengths win in the Becher Chase over the National fences in December and not seen since. Rain welcomed.
ABCDEF RARE BOB Last year’s Leopardstown Chase winner was last but one behind Seabass attempting a repeat in January. Had jumped the National fences well in the Becher Chase in December but finished a tired 5th some 59 lengths behind the winner, West End Rocker, on the heavy ground.
ABCEF ARBOR SUPREME Fancied for the last two Nationals at 16-1 and 20-1 but pulled up then fell. Beat Black Apalachi at Punchestown Festival in 2008 but best form since when beaten a length by The Midnight Club in the Bobbyjo in February.
ABCFG ALWAYS RIGHT Close Scottish National third a year ago and won Scottish Champion Chase in December but pulled up twice since, behind According To Pete at Wetherby and Giles Cross at Haydock. Needs to bounce back, following soft-palate operation.
ABCFG CAPPA BLEU Won the Foxhunter at Cheltenham as a seven-year-old but reverted to hurdles after falling in the Hennessy Gold Cup and not return to fences until surprise winner over 3m at Haydock in November (Killyglen third).
Excellent efforts since, third in the Welsh National (heavy), giving weight to the first two, and same place again in a Listed chase at Ascot (good to soft). Only six runs over fences but a galloping sort who should be up with the leaders.
ABCF SEABASS Katie Walsh’s mount gives me bags of ‘overs’ at the 60.0 I took on BETDAQ; as a win-100 bet, my stake was very small, so I shall not formally lay it for the column’s balance-sheet.
Now generally averaging 16-1, and 25.0 offers on the Daq this morning, Seabass is unbeaten since January 2010, notably winning the Leopardstown Chase, with Rare Bob a long way back and Organisedconfusion failing to complete. Not a big animal but a game one and a good jumper.
ABC CHICAGO GREY Came good over fences when winning the 4m NH Chase at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival but lost the money after in the Scottish Grand National and back at Cheltenham.
Third in Galmoy Hurdle after a break and second in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park, both Grade 3. Something to prove, returned to stamina test.
ACDEG SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM Novice career dipped but jumped the National fences well (behind Always Waining) in the Topham a year ago.
Back to form big time after that – two wins and two seconds – including 3m 2f at Cheltenham and excellent second in the Great Yorkshire. Not helped by recent rain and trainer has never had a horse placed in the National from 20 or more starters.
ACDFG ON HIS OWN The choice of Ruby Walsh, theoretically 10 lengths better than father Ted’s Seabass on a line through a horse called Tullintain.
Brought down when favourite to win the Paddy Power over Christmas at Leopardstown.
ACDF ACCORDING TO PETE Good form since November has raised him 17lb, winning Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock but failing to complete the hat-trick at Kelso last time. Mud lover.
ACEFG MON MOME The 2009 National winner. Third in the 2010 Gold Cup but then fell in that year’s National and mainly moderate efforts since. Trainer bullish of a return to form.
ACEF THE MIDNIGHT CLUB Albert Bartlett third, then Jewson third, at successive Cheltenhams and sixth in last year’s National after winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse. Out of his depth in the Gold Cup last time out.
ACF ORGANISEDCONFUSION Last year’s Irish National winner under Nina Carberry, who has finished this Grand National course the last twice (7th, 15th).
Her mount fell in the Leopardstown Chase (behind Seabass) so had a confidence-boosting round at Gowran Park last month. Lightly raced but plenty of chasing experience.
ACFG TREACLE Munster National winner in 2009 but then lost his form until winning at Gowran Park in October and career best when just beaten by Cross Appeal in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown.
AF TATENEN Back-to-back wins in 2m 6f handicap chase at Ascot. Favourite for the 2009 Arkle (fell). Paul Nicholls cast-off; but then, so was Silver Birch.
BCDG JUNIOR One time Ascot Stakes winner shot up the handicap after winning 2011 Kim Muir at Cheltenham but back to form latest when just failed to win the Grimthorpe, giving more than 20lb. Rain against him.
BCDFG SYNCHRONISED Midlands Grand National and Welsh National winner but stepped up to Graded races with success in the Lexus and then took advantage of a strong pace to stay on and win the Gold Cup. However, his tendency to get behind is not an advantage in the Grand National.
BCDFG WEIRD AL Failed to make the grade after illustrious novice career until returning to form in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby in October. Only 7-1 SP for the Gold Cup after third to Kauto Star in Lancashire Chase, but pulled up (bled from nose).
BCEFG KILLYGLEN Has yet to fulfill promise of his good novice-chase but showing up enough to make him an outside fancy of mine for last year’s National where he ran well above his form being right there at the fourth last when he fell.
Described by Raceform as ‘the unluckiest’ in the race, he has done better than keep his mark (actually 5lb lower than last year) by hurdling but still managed a good third in a class-2 chase at Haydock in November (7lb better off for around 6 lengths with the winner, Cappa Bleu) and beat a decent field at Down Royal a month ago after a wind operation.
BCDF LE BEAU BAI Third in last year’s Haydock Park Grand National Trial and filled same place this year behind Giles Cross. But beat the same horse when winning the Welsh National in December. Needs heavy ground.
BCDF MIDNIGHT HAZE Very lightly raced 3m 2f winner (only 15 starts under Rules), a fair sixth in the cross-country at Cheltenham.
BCE CALGARY BAY Consistent novice and sixth 2010 Gold Cup but lost his way after and fell in last year’s Grand National. Returned to form to win Victor Chandler in January and took Great Yorkshire off a strong pace. That means he’s now on his highest ever mark and the rain doesn’t help him.
BCE POSTMASTER Best form at minor tracks and fell in the Topham last year. Prefers a sound surface.
BCFG PLANET OF SOUND ‘Glass’ horse with only six runs in two years but very useful when right: Arkle third 2009; took Guinness Gold Cup (Punchestown 2010) and, this season, good second in Hennessy, giving 12lb to the winner. Prefers a sound surface.
BCFG GILES CROSS Winning the Haydock Park Grand National Trial in February cost him a 6lb rise but he’s had only 16 races under Rules and his list of marathon success is legion.
In chronological order: 3rd Midlands Grand National, 2nd Welsh National, 2nd Eider Chase, won Southern National, 2nd again Welsh National, won Grand National Trial. Denis O’Regan prefers to ride Black Apalachi.
BCF SUNNYHILLBOY Byrne Group Plate runner-up at the Cheltenham Festival in 2010 and placed in another Grade 3 on the same course, continuing in similar vein last season when third in the Irish Grand National.
Back to form almost one year on when comfortable winner of the Kim Muir. That cost him a 10lb rise but it does not have to be carried in Saturday’s big race. Handicap snip?
BEF BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE Two years since he won a race but second 2010 NH Chase (4m) at Cheltenham festival. Fell in last year’s National but back to form at Cheltenham last month when runner-up to Sunnyhillboy in the Kim Muir.
CDEFG STATE OF PLAY Hennessy winner of 2006 has been in the frame in three Nationals: ran fourth in Mon Mome’s year, then third to Don’t Push It and fourth to Ballabriggs. Prefers a sound surface.
CDEF VIC VENTURI Has never fallen in 26 chases but unlucky in the National: pulled up 2010, brought down last year. Won Bobbyjo 2010 and third in same race last year to The Midnight Club. Last seen in hunters’ chase.
CDE SWING BILL Third in the Greatwood Gold Cup and fifth to Always Waining in last year’s Topham. Won an amateurs’ race at Cheltenham since. Prefers a sound surface.
CDF THARAWAAT Looked decent in the autumn but lost form since and well beaten in the Thyestes (behind On His Own) and the Troytown.
CD VIKING BLOND Just the one novice-chase win in the autumn but fair effort in Graded chase behind Grands Crus and obviously highly regarded, SP favourite for the Welsh National (pulled up on the heavy ground).
CEFG BALLABRIGGS won the National last year 10lb lower and under wraps since, until a pipe-opening fourth in the Premier Chase at Kelso in early March. Won or placed in 10 of 15 chases but no horses has won this back-to-back since Red Rum and none has carried 11st 9lb or more since Red Rum’s second success in 1974.
CEFG BLACK APALACHI Fell and unseated rider in two attempts on the National before he was second in 2010. Only one run since that day, good second on comeback in Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February. A 13-year-old last won the National in 1923.
CEF ALFA BEAT Good year last year: Kerry National winner for the second time in September and 4th in 4m NH Chase at Cheltenham but fell in the Topham and has pulled up in his only chase this year.
CFG NEPTUNE COLLONGES Though second to Giles Cross in the Haydock Park Grand National trial, is worse off at the weights now, rated 162. But, in his best season, when he won the Irish Hennessy, he ran fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup when he was officially on 174.
Trainer has a poor record in the National and reckons this horse is badly handicapped. Well, he would, wouldn’t he.
C DEEP PURPLE Fabulous run of 11 wins and three seconds in 17 races up to December 2009, including Charlie Hall Chase, Peterborough Chase and Scottish Future Champion.
Has struggled since and dropped 11lb, which enabled him to win the London National at Sandown in December but fell latest.
DEF IN COMPLIANCE Jumps these fences (sixth in Topham, 13th in National last year) but on latest starts pulled up behind Seabass and 37-lengths third behind Killyglen.
EFG ALWAYS WAINING Has won 14 times in 70-race career, and loves the National fences, winning the Topham two years running. Also fourth in the Topham, fourth in the Becher Chase in December and sixth in the Grand Sefton.
FG QUISCOVER FONTAINE Arkle sixth in 2010 has been kept to hurdles since fourth in last year’s Irish Grand National.
DAQMAN BETS
BET 2.3pts win LIZZIE (2.30 Catterick)
BET 7.7pts win DANDINO and 2.7pts win PARLOUR GAMES (3.40 Nottingham)
BET 3.8pts win (nap) ROBEMAKER (5.10 Nottingham)
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