THREE WINNING DAYS OUT OF FOUR: Daqman, who made 48 points profit on Saturday with eight wins, and edged in front on Monday, finished ahead of the game again yesterday when his form figures for five races were 23311.
11-4 SHOT BOLTS IN: His winners were Jamaican Bolt (WON 11-4) and Shouda (WON 13-8), following the nine scorers over the weekend which included 100-30, 11-4 and 9-4 shots at SP. You get them bigger on BETDAQ, of course.
Waterlogged Chepstow was lost to the weather this morning. Catterick alone survives for Flat racing on turf today, with just the one contest at a decent level: the class-4 handicap.
Tim Easterby has had one winner and five placed from six starters in this (3.20) and, though Boundaries’ two tries at this trip from his 27 starts have not been distinguished, he’s a class-2 winner and still just four years old.
Only Desert Creek and Zomerlust have won at that level. Desert Creek has been in even worse form lately – though has dropped 10lb over the last year – and Zomerlust has reverted to sellers and claimers for his bread and butter.
David O’Meara’s Miss Ellany is a warm favourite, as the potential improver of the race, but three-year-olds don’t win this, according to the stats.
However, you have to paint with what you’ve got on the palette, and both O’Meara (15 in the 1-2-3 for a 39% win-and-place strike rate) and Easterby (23 for 37%) are ‘the trainers most likely to’ in this tricky heat.
5.50 Kempton Park (Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Apprentice Handicap): Ashley Morgan has a 50% strike rate riding for Paul Cole this year but those winners were half Cole’s meagre haul on AW (4-30) and the trainer has missed the board altogether with 0-47 on turf in 2012.
We’re looking at Flashbang. But his AW win was at Lingfield not Kempton and he wore first-time blinkers that day in May; they haven’t been effective on turf since, though this return to Polytrack might help.
Flashbang was behind Speightstowns Kid on turf recently and that one is a Kempton winner at 5f who was also second here over today’s extra furlong at a similar time last year in a Lay Back And Win At betdaq.com Handicap. Maybe he can ‘Win Big’ this time.
Hinton Admiral and Punching have had to be dropped to sellers and claimers to win this year, which leaves ‘the Kid’ in splendid isolation as form horse and favourite.
6.50 Kempton Park (Back Or Lay At betdaq.com Maiden Stakes): John Gosden and William Buick have an aura of magic about them right now, and Regal Aura is Gosden’s only runner of the day.
Like Gosden, Richard Hannon, who runs Reigns Of Glory, has had 10 winners in the last fortnight, and Mark Johnston, leading northern trainer at Kempton, brings down Bryer.
The worry for punters about Regal Aura, Reigns Of Glory and Bryer – plus The Queen’s Galleon and first-time-blinkered Soho Spirit come to that – is they are all having their third run, which suggests that a handicap beckons next time out.
That’s pure surmise but leads us to Presume (pun intended): Sir Michael Stoute is hot right now and my man in the long grass at Newmarket, who is 5-9 with his Stoute selections, has gone for this one today.
The danger, according to the market, Muntasir, has already been handicapping and ‘got beat’. He looks exposed and a bit of a bridesmaid after five runs, all in the frame without winning.
7.25 Kempton Park (Betdaq Mobile Apps/British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies Stakes): Sir Mark Prescott is one run one winner in this race, but Heliconia is a massive 15.5 on BETDAQ as I write so, again, we might expect to catch her right later on in handicaps (nurseries in this case).
Jeremy Noseda hasn’t had a two-year-old winner this year, and Blue Nova must be an uneasy favourite. Clive Brittain is missing strike badly, with current form of 20234033.
He’ll be doing that paddock jig of his but with frustration not celebration right now.
Glossy Posse, Poetic Belle, Woodlandsway, Alpine Mysteries and Roz have dropped over the betting weir at 15.0 plus this morning, and Rosia Bay (6-1 forecast but 11.0 as I write) is heading for it rapidly, drifting like a lonely dog on a raft.
Wittgenstein isn’t fancied much either; has something to prove after a modest first effort on AW, and is another destined for nurseries (third run today will do the trick).
As a certain S. Holmes said: after rejecting all the negatives, what is left – however surprising – is the probably answer, and to plump for Something Magic is not all that surprising (a 6.4 probability) after her decent first effort for Kirk-Keniry, which are a 36% successful partnership in this type of race at this track.
8.00 Kempton Park (Betdaq Casino Games Handicap): Just 109% overround here but seven of the nine offered in the orange as I write are separated by only 4.8 points.
You could call this a tight handicap. And finding a flaw in the official rating of exposed horses over 2m is not a hobby I pursue very often. But it is class 3 and just about the best race all day, so get your head down Daqman!
The Racing Post betting forecasters thought four times (out of seven) course winner Spensley should lead the market but he’s slipped to third place on BETDAQ as I write, despite the Fanshawe-Fallon effect, no doubt because all his form is only up to 1m 4f.
There’s not much between Spensley and Late Telegraph on form of last November on today’s course over a shorter trip, and Late Telegraph, too, has to prove his stamina today.
Chabada landed an AW hat-trick but those wins were on the softer surfaces of Wolver and Southwell. Sirius Superstar is still, a maiden and, like Moose Moran, is having his first run for a long time.
Clearwater Bay’s success was back in 2010 in Ireland but included Dundalk form and he must have been showing Gary Moore something to have launched his UK turf career in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot last month. He’s 17.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
The stand-out on quality must surely be Rumh, who ran in last year’s St Leger, and drops back from a Listed after failing to act on the Epsom gradients. But, yet again, we are betting blind about the trip: he has no form beyond 1m 4f, apart from that failed attempt at a Classic.
So this isn’t ‘exposed horses running over 2m’ as I first supposed, because so many of them are trying the trip for the first time.
In such circumstances, you have no choice but to side with class, and that has to be Rumh and Clearwater Bay, if the stable has got him right and if he’s fitter now (those ‘ifs’ are catered for within the 17.0).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 9.5pts win SPEIGHTSTOWN KID (5.50 Kempton Park)
BET 1.2pts win and place BOUNDARIES and 0.7pts win (stakes saver) MISS ELLANY (3.20 Catterick)
BET 10pts win (nap) PRESUME (6.50 Kempton Park)
BET 3.7pts win SOMETHING MAGIC (7.25 Kempton Park)
BET 4.7pts win RUMH and 1.25pts win and place CLEARWATER BAY (8.00 Kempton Park)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
* Points are what you make them: if you bet in tenners, then 4pts win is £40; 3.2pts win is £32 (in fivers, those stakes would be £20 and £16). Daqman bets to a level return so that you can easily assess his tipping ability.
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