BETDAQ LISTED AT KEMPTON HAS BETTING BONUS, SAYS DAQMAN: There’s a bonus to the best race of the day, the Betdaq-sponsored Listed race at Kempton tonight: ‘The offers I saw made up a list of punter-friendly value prices, which is the bonus of betting with BETDAQ,’ says Daqman.
17.5 HUNCH FOR HUGHESIE: Daqman admits it’s a hunch, but he reckons Richard Hughes could get something more out of one of the outsiders at 17.5 this morning.
4.00 Kempton Park (Win Big With Betdaq Multiples Claiming Stakes) The ratings say 72-58 Layla’s Oasis over Many Elements, if I convert the official ratings to a level 9st. And stable form has Jamie Osborne training as many current winners as the four other stables put together.
Clearly Layla’s Oasis would have to perform below par if she is to be beaten here but she wouldn’t be the first long-odds-on shot to do so in the last few days.
4.30 Kempton Park (Back or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap, Division 1) There’s bound to be money for Guarda Pampa, making her handicap debut under Silvestre De Sousa, who has a 25% strike rate on the course for trainer William Haggas.
With Height Of Summer out, only Royal Etiquette and Having A Ball are CD winners, though the grey Shalambar has won twice at Kempton over further and he broke his maiden at today’s trip.
Shalambar would obviously need a strong pace today, while Royal Etiquette would need to respond to the visors in the way he did when beating Bert The Alert a month ago but they don’t always work next time.
The one just now coming to hand is Sail Home, the only horse in the race with consistent success at this class-5 level: I took 8.2 on BETDAQ this morning.
5.00 Kempton Park (Back or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap, Division 2) This looks the better quality of the two divisions, with seven of the runners class-5 winners, and one of them previously capable of class-4 success, albeit 18 months ago and more.
Yet we have a clear favourite this time, Neige d’Antan being all the rage for Sir Mark Prescott. The old array of Prescott sequence horses has been whittled down to one or two a season these days but at least this one has gone seven successive races in the first three.
It was a near miss for back-to-back wins last month over course and distance when she was the ‘moral,’ beaten odds-on favourite by a head, giving 4lb to the winner.
Her rating hasn’t moved for that but she is a stone lower because of the rise to a higher-grade of race, and is getting weight from the Kempton specialists Diplomatic (up in trip) and Shirataki.
The class-4 winner, Hawaana, seems to be struggling, despite having been given some respite by the handicapper though, knowing Miss Kelleway, she wouldn’t accept that!
As a warning of the Royal Etiquette situation in the first division, we saw the defeat of Bramshill Lass here in her very next race after she had won on the course in first-time blinkers.
But I’m inclined to forgive her that; she was only a length and a half off the lead, giving weight to the first two and running over an extra furlong.
Granted some pace today, her 6.0 could look wrong, though that race I’ve been talking about was a grade lower.
5.30 Kempton Park (Betdaq Mobile Apps British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes) Millers Wharf looks exposed, with precisely the opposite true of the Charles Hills’ pair: we know nothing of them, but so far the trainer has used Kempton for education (0-10 with his two-year-olds here).
The fillies’ allowance could be vital (as last year) so 5.2 Serenity Spa is appealing but, though he can be quirky (refused to enter stalls September), Rivellino is clearly highly thought of, having contested Ascot and then a Listed, which he couldn’t cope with on heavy ground.
6.00 Kempton Park (Betdaq Casino Games Wild Flower Stakes) As last week, BETDAQ treat us to a quality stakes race, an £18,000 Listed, and, as I write, there’s a betting bonus to their generosity, with the offers in the orange adding up to only 107% overround, even though five horses are vying for pole position at the front of the market.
As opposed to the earlier handicap, this is the type of race in which William Haggas excels over the course, and Harris Tweed has been placed here at Group level.
Harris Tweed is favourite this morning but, normally in a race like this, his penalties, weight concession to the three-year-olds and style of racing from the front, or up with the pace, would all leave him vulnerable to improvers.
The snag with that argument is that the three-year-olds don’t seem to be up to much, all three struggling at lower levels. You are left thinking that old rivals Art Scholar and Communicator are the biggest dangers, with only a pound between them on form.
I may be bonkers but I shall give a last chance to Qushchi: Tom Queally, Paul Hanagan and Graham Lee have all tried to find the answer to her and get her some black type.
Now it falls to the forceful Richard Hughes to teach madam a lesson: at 17.5, my own lesson of this indiscretion – following a hunch – won’t be expensive.
NAP While the three-year-olds don’t seem much cop in this Kempton Listed, Starfield (2.35 Lingfield) has the potential with a top stable to beat the older horses, principally Robin Hoods Bay who has a penalty: 5.6 in a 106% list of offers in the BETDAQ orange.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 4.3pts win (nap) STARFIELD (2.35 Lingfield)
BET 2.8pt win SAIL HOME (4.30 Kempton Park)
BET 4pts win BRAMSHILL LASS and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) NEIGE D’ANTAN (5.00 Kempton)
BET 9.5pts win RIVELLINO and 2.2pts win SERENITY SPA (5.30 Kempton Park)
DAQ VALUE BET 1.2pts win and place QUSHCHI (6.00 Kempton Park)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake). Daq Value marks races today where the probability total was less than 110%
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
