DAY OF THE BIG CHASE DOUBLE: What’s this? Pricewise is pipping Daqman 4-3 in the jumps season for value bets since the end of the Flat. But the overall score in the last year is 111-63 to Daqman. Their duel continues today in the 1.30 Aintree; 2.25 and 3.00 Sandown, with the Tingle Creek and Becher Chase the main targets. Daqman’s current positions:
Naps: 3 out of 4 (75%)
Bull’s-Eye Bets: 235 points profit
Lays: 8 in a row (100%)
Value: Daqman 3 Pricewise 4 (total 111-63)
EIGHT WINNING LAYS IN A ROW: Yes, Daqman dared lay another favourite yesterday, Gorgehous Lliege (pulled up 9-2), bringing his current tally of lays to eight in a row. He gave a strong tip for Bivouac (WON 4-1) but forgot to put points on it. Wake up, Daqman, and lift your tent flap!
BIG BENS FORM CHIMES WITH BECHER
1.30 Aintree (Becher Chase, ABC Guide Thursday in the Daqman Archive) Benbens can keep it in the family today. He has a World Hurdle winner on one side of his lineage, a Gold Cup winner on the other. But the biggest name in his pedigree for the Becher Chase is Nigel Twiston-Davies, winner of the race five times in its 22 renewals.
Skilful training by ‘Twiston’ has Benbens on the right weight at the right age, prepped with an excellent effort at Cheltenham when he was the ‘moral, giving 9lb to the winner, Charingworth.
Charingworth had run up to the luckless The Young Master earlier at Cheltenham, coming out of the race on a par with Balbriggan, who would later land me an enormous gamble in the Troytown Chase.
That translates as an edge to Benbens over Balbriggan in this richly talented Becher field, exacerbated by Ryan Hatch’s 5lb claim and, additionally, the fear that Balbriggan is too young for this, along with Goonyella, Just A Par and Green Flag who are also fancied.
It takes a mighty seven-year-old to win over these fences: the likes of Silver Birch (2004), one of only two in this, but not a one in the National since Bogskar (1940).
Paul Nicholls insists that the Becher is made for Just A Par and Balbriggan landed a stunning gamble at Navan, so it’s hard to let them run unbacked.
But it’s also the case that leaping the National obstacles rarely allows a weight-carrier to win – 17 of the 22 have carried 10st 12lb or less – which makes it tough for Just A Par, last year’s winner Chance Du Roy and close rival Mr Moonshine.
Shakalakaboomboom used to jump for fun over these fences, leading for a long way in the 2012 National. Oscar Time, National fourth last year, loves them two, but may be feeling his years.
Saint Are looks dangerous, 15lb lower than when ninth in the 2013 National when only seven years old, and back to form on the last day for a new stable. Of these, Shakalakaboomboom has been allowed a practice session at Aintree recently. Huge at 33.0 in the orange.
But I shall take 17.0 Benbens on BETDAQ as my winner, and my second bet has to be Balbriggan, despite his age. There’s no way a punter can find his horse to follow and then desert it. He owes me nothing and has a big future; it’s a question today of whether he can jump the big National fences.
DAQMAN’S ORDER IN: Benbens 1, Chance Du Roy 2, Balbriggan 3, Shakalakaboomboom 4, Just A Par 5.
3.15 Aintree (Grand Sefton) Completing the National-fences big-race double today is the Grand Sefton which, though shorter, again favours the older horses: no winner below the age of eight in the decade.
Rebel Rebellion won it last year off a 5lb lower mark (Poole Master seventh) but it was a much weaker race (the top weight ran off 140; today Rolling Aces is top weight on 156).
Hunt Ball (9.6 on BETDAQ this morning) completed the course in last year’s National, and is another Henderson runner today that’s been allowed to practice at Aintree recently.
Bennys Mist was second in the Topham but is an unreliable sort, hooded that day but tried without this afternoon. Champion Court looked in fine form in the big race at Chjeltenham last month and has been dropped 8lb since that Topham.
Benbens’ rider, Ryan Hatch, takes off another 5lb, so Champion Court is fully 13lb better in here and a solid win and place at 11.0.
THE TINGLE CREEK PRIZE IS GOD’S GIFT
12.20 Sandown My man in the long grass warned me to back Bivouac (won 4-1) yesterday and now gives me the nod for Clean Sheet from the same stable.
Aso has a penalty, and King’s Odyssey comes here from lowly Southwell, yet they are the market dangers on BETDAQ as I write, with Clean Sheet’s yard going for a six-timer in the race.
1.50 Sandown (Henry V111 Chase) One of the top novices-chase trials, won only once in the decade by a seven-year-old and never in its 25-year history by a nine-year-old.
Hinterland and Somersby, due to take part in the Tingle Creek today, are both previous Henry V111 winners and, as well as Hinterland, Paul Nicholls has won it with Al Ferof.
He ‘really rates’ Irish Saint who will have the company of stablemate, Vibrato Valtat, who is Ditcheat’s line to form for this, since he is weighted to reverse recent placings with Dunraven Storm.
On a line through Chris Pea Green, whom they have both beaten, Irish Saint has at least 2lb in hand on Court Minstrel and should improve from his winning start to the season which was over today’s course and distance. All round, he’s a banker.
2.25 Sandown There’s a weight ceiling off 11st 5lb for winners of this; only one winner went through the roof in the last decade, and I’m on the side of Snake Eyes tossed against the side of seven!
3.00 Sandown (Tingle Creek Chase, ABC Guide in Daqman Archive, Wednesday) God’s Own has twice beaten Balder Succes but they come together now at levels in this test for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. But, as I said in my ABC Guide, Gods Own looks a horse going places.
I grabbed 20.0 Gods Own for Cheltenham and he’s now down to 15.0 in the BETDAQ ante-post offers this morning. I also took 10.0 Balder Success (best offers 9.8 as I write).
I have to continue betting as if one of them will win this Tingle Creek. Whichever one does, he will be much shorter for the Champion.
He may not win at Cheltenham, of course – though the last two Tingle Creek winners have done – so I must cover my ante-post bets with a bit extra on them this afternoon.
DAQMAN’S ORDER IN: Gods Own 1, Balder Succes 2,
3.35 Sandown (London National) Again, a high-weighted winner is a rarity (1-10 above 11st 7lb) and so, too, a seven-year-old winner (1-10).
These are not the only pointers to Kasbadali. He has solid form, goes swell fresh and is from the Many Clouds (Hennessy-winning) stable.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Selected at the best BETDAQ offers this morning to win 30 points, unless otherwise stated)
BET 9pts win CLEAN SHEET (12.20 Sandown)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 5pts win BALBRIGGAN, 3pts win and place BENBENS, 1.5pts win and place SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM (1.30 Aintree)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) IRISH SAINT (1.50 Sandown)
BET 6.5pts win SNAKE EYES (2.25 Sandown)
BET 8.5pts win BALDER SUCCES, 7pts win GOD’S OWN (3.00 Sandown)
BET 3.5pts win HUNT BALL and 3pts win CHAMPION COURT (3.15 Aintree)
BET 9pts win KASBADALI (3.35 Sandown)
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