DAQMAN CAN! ANOTHER NAP UP: Daqman named a nine-lengths winner for his nap yesterday, Cantlow (WON 13-8). He leads Pricewise 4-2 (dead level on profit and loss) coming into Saturday’s second day at Cheltenham, with bets in the 1.50, 2.25 and 3.35.
BID FOR BANKER NUMBER 10: Daqman today bids for 10 bankers from 12 bets with a gold stake (30 points) at Doncaster. He reserves his bull’s-eye bets (to win 50) for the big race at Cheltenham.
SIZING UP FOR ANOTHER TIZZARD
Punters on trial again. More hurdles and a one chase for novices tempt punters to make an early decision about Cheltenham Festival fancies.
The Triumph Trial (12.05) has found winner, second, third and fourth in the Triumph itself over 10 years; no winner since Katchit (2006), whose stable runs Coeur De Lion today and also won it last year.
The last ‘find’ for the novices’ chase (12.40) was Arkle winner Tidal Bay (2007). Nicky Henderson has won it twice but Different Gravey could be better than any in the decade. I’ll need to have a closer look at the Albert Bartlett trial (2.25; see below), as Pricewise thinks he’s found value in the race.
1.15 Cheltenham This is a race to bet in because, on the stats – and on form – the older horses, due to be 11 and 12 years old on January 1, have very little chance of winning.
‘Very little chance’ means they are outsiders, but take out their odds (from 14.0 to 38.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning), and the market is in 85% underround. Even if you back every one of the younger horses, you must make a profit to level stakes.
Vaniteux is the obvious one, likely runner up to Douvan in the Arkle but for unseating two out, and third to Sire De Grugy in an Ascot cracker on his return.
But his chance of giving weight all round here depends on how much rain there is this morning, if any. He’s never won on worse than good to soft and, in fact, Cold March has only a length or two to make up on that Ascot form.
Keel Haul and Un Beau Roman are course winners but the interesting one is Sizing Platinum, a ‘hidden horse’ in that his CD second to Fox Norton on debut for Colin Tizzard was his only run over 2m since his novice days for Henry De Bromhead. BETDAQ offers of 5.5 this morning are ‘bigger’ in such a value market.
WATCH PAUL NICHOLLS’ BIRDIE!
1.50 Cheltenham (Caspian Caviar Gold Cup) ‘In form’ would currently be a simplistic epithet for the Tizzard stable. The yard has won major races this autumn-winter with Cue Card, Fox Norton, Native River, Third Intention, Thistlecrack, Viconte Du Noyer and yesterday Theatre Guide.
And here they go again with two more well placed in a big handicap, both the right sort of age (none above eight has won in the decade).
Quite By Chance is hardly eponymous for this man Tizzard; he seems to leave nothing to chance, and this one has been out of the frame only once in 11 starts and that because he ran again too soon after being placed on heavy ground.
CD runner-up at the festival in March, smart birdie Bouvreuil (which means bullfinch) should be spot on for this after running fifth in the Gold Cup Handicap last month.
He’s better off with everything that finished in front of him that day: Village Vic (now 12lb higher than when winning this last year), Buywise (not won a chase since 2014) and Aso (needs rain, as does Kings Odyssey).
But Sam Twiston Davies seems to prefer my Fortune Cookie, Frodon, who hit four out in that race and never recovered. The jury is still out on whether this four-year-old has been pitched into the big time too seen, but the stable won this with a similar four-year-old novice, Unioniste, in 2012.
Kylemore Lough also comes into the reckoning, one of six horses offered on BETDAQ between 8.2 and 11.0, so open is this race and, again, such value is the orange that the whole field adds up to only 107%.
With the percentages in my favour, I can afford to back two and I shall take the Ditcheat pair – Bouvreuil 9.2 and Frodon 11.0 – to revenge so many big-race defeats by neighbour Tizzard: Quite By Chance looks too easy to back at 17.0.
9.0 STAR OF MORE BETDAQ VALUE
2.25 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle) This is an amazing launchpad for sequence horses: the 2012 winner Coneygree would chalk up a five-timer; and the next three winners scored a hat-trick; three out of four one year on; and five consecutive almost immediately.
So who can we take out of this race and follow up on, time and again? It could be Wholestone, who has twice beaten the Tizzard horse, West Approach. But that’s just it: when they’ve been racing against each other, with nothing else to beat, they do look good. At least they’ve been doing it at Cheltenham.
No Hassle Hoff has a stamina-laden pedigree which could help him up the hill, and Impulsive Star is another chaser in the making, and his two hurdles wins have been slow by a minute and more in mud.
However, he won a Point impressively over 3m and is bred to like a better surface. A bit impulsive, rising to the Pricewise bait, but 9.0 in a 102% orange gives me the better chance on BETDAQ.
2.40 Doncaster O O Seven pays more than six for every 10 on BETDAQ this morning for a Gold Banker (30 points win) to maintain his progress to the Cheltenham festival.
3.35 Cheltenham (Mares Handicap Hurdle) I remember the days of the friendly local bookie who would have taken a bet today like ‘if rain, double stakes Jessber’s Dream’. In the modern betting world, you’ll have to keep your Daq up and see what happens to the weather on TV before you stake on this mud-lover.
At the other end of the handicap, and in the reverse situation, is the Tizzard lightweight On Demand, who doesn’t want a drop of rain if she is to outrun them all.
Her problem is not only the weather but also Dalmatia, because another front-runner, albeit up in trip here and with her Irish yard yet to make any impression with English raiders in the last five years.
The progressive mare, with an interesting jockey booking (Richard Johnson) is Midnight Tour (5.2). Briery Queen (8.6), who goes well fresh, was the ‘moral’ in the mares’ novices’ final at Newbury in April, beaten a nose giving more than half a stone to the winner.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points)
BET 6.6pts win SIZING PLATINUM (1.15 Cheltenham)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 6pts win BOUVREUIL and 5pts win FRODON (1.50 Cheltenham)
BET 3.75pts win IMPULSIVE STAR (2.25 Cheltenham)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pts win (nap) O O SEVEN (2.40 Doncaster)
BET 7.5pts win MIDNIGHT TOUR and 4pts win BRIERY QUEEN (3.35 Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 3pt win trebles Different Gravey (12.40 Cheltenham) with O O Seven (2.40 Doncaster) and with Bouvreuil and Frodon (1.50 Cheltenham)
FORTUNE COOKIES Frodon (1.50 Cheltenham) and O O Seven (2.40 Doncaster)
PREVIEW HORSE: Old Guard (3.00 Cheltenham), see Wednesday preview in the Daqman Archive.
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