DERBY DAY: THE CURRAGH: Daqman’s verdict on the Irish Derby at The Curragh this afternoon includes an 8.2 place bet on the big race.
DERBY DAY: NEWCASTLE: Daqman opens his analysis with the Pitman’s Derby (Northumberland Plate) at Newcastle and the return of his Bull’s Eye Bet at 11.0.
BEST OF THE REST: Daqman leaves no stone unturned as he scours all of today’s racing for the best bets on BETDAQ.
ON A PLATE FOR THE DARK HORSE
3.50 Newcastle (Northumberland Plate, ABC Guide in the Daqman Archive, Thursday). Winner-a-day Oisin Murphy (slow down boy, we need that 3lb allowance!) has his toughest task of the season to win the Northumberland Plate in Geordieland this afternoon.
No Gazza, he. But more like the Alan Shearer of riders: reliable, sensible. In the right place at the right time. And uses his head.
Van Percy ‘bounced off the ground’ at Newmarket (firm) and is ‘an out and out stayer’ (quote unquote, trainer Andrew Balding). Has never been out of the first six in his life.
A steady improver put up 7lb last year, he’s risen 7lb already this term, and it’s only June. He’s still perfectly placed in the lower half of this handicap.
But not in the draw. Only one horse that high (22) has won in the decade and six out of 10 came from single-figure stalls.
One of his old rivals – the dark horse, literally – is Dark Crusader, last year’s Melrose winner, who was impressive on firm ground at Killarney last summer and has gate 9. The unexposed Glenard is in 5. Mawaqeet is also better than the bare form.
If the going stays on top, it could enable Noble Silk to resist revenge by Nearly Caught, who is better off at the weights from their Haydock one-two. Angel Gabrial and Sueigoo are also tight up together now after fighting out the Chester Cup.
Oriental Fox, second in this last year off a 10lb lower mark, and sixth in the Cesarewitch (Waterclock second but has changed stables), also took sixth on firm in the Ascot Gold Cup. He could place.
Willie Mullins took out Pique Sous and Simenon and secured by Paul Hanagan for Lucky Bridle. You can’t find much in the form book but there could be a lot hidden in the motivation. Ruby Walsh once described Lucky Bridle as having ‘a considerable engine.’
Sir Mark Prescott is still struggling for form (2-30 in 2014), and Big Thunder, one of his sequence horses last year, has not been seen since.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The filly Dark Crusader (11.0 on BETDAQ) looks laid out for this by one of Ireland’s sharpest big-race plotters, Tony Martin.
I was ready to go Bull’s Eye on Van Percy until the draw but he remained worth a lower-level win-and-place bet at 12.5. Oriental Fox could also place, despite his weight, from stall 3.
1-2-3: Dark Crusader 1, Van Percy 2, Oriental Fox 3.
AUSTRALIA HANDED THE DOUBLE
5.30 The Curragh (Irish Derby, ABC Guide in the Daqman Archive, Friday) The rain, which was probably needed to bring Australia and Kingston Hill together, seems to have swerved The Curragh.
Just a little watering overnight, and a dry forecast for the day, suggests that the son of Galileo and Ouija Board is set for an historic double, with Kingston Hill – badly drawn at Epsom – unlucky again, this time with the ground.
The market says that only Geoffrey Chaucer has any chance of troubling the front pair. Both he and stablemate Orchestra seem not to have acted on Epsom’s undulations.
Orchestra and Fascinating Rock were drawn wide that day and a line through the third colt home, Romsdal, confirms that Orchestra, who beat that one at Chester, didn’t give his running.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I am in the business of long-term sequences of short-odds winners, which occasionally includes buying money, and Australia fits that brief. Otherwise, treating it as any other race, I would destroy my margins having even a tiny flutter on Orchestra at 8.2 the place on BETDAQ this morning.
1-2: Australia 1, Orchestra 2.
REST OF THE DAY’S RACING
SCURRY IN ON 10.0 ALBEN STAR
2.05 Newcastle Last night’s Gosforth Park Cup suggests we have an edge here, with the Cup result by stall: 15, 14, 9, 10, 13, 12, 11. Gates 1, 2, 3 and 4 were the last four home!
Muthmir, subject of strong stable reports, and gelded since his last run, has been withdrawn three times because of cut in the ground.
2.20 Newmarket Team Hannon (Parsley) is 10011 in this, but punters will worry what kind of card Roger Varian has in Tigrilla, after he played an ace with Belardo at Yarmouth.
There have been mixed messages from Parsley’s Goodwood win, with the runner-up subsequently beaten at odds on but the third returning to Goodwood to score last time.
Snag with the grey Tigrilla is that she has run only on soft ground, as befits a daughter of Clodovil.
3.15 Newcastle Brian Ellison has won this twice (form figures 1010) in four years but needs rain for Dream Walker. Royal Rascal may also need some cut.
Almargo, campaigned in big handicaps, now reverts to his winning distance and 6.6 on BETDAQ is a fair offer for a three-year-old with his speed.
4.15 The Curragh (Scurry) Three-year-olds have been thin on the ground in this in the last few years, so their massive record (101110102000) has petered out.
Today they have a much stronger representation from top trainers Bolger, Wachman and Weld, with Alkasser on the upgrade, but they may be foiled by the draw.
Unless the ground is soft, the draw is strongly biased to high numbers. Winners in the last six seasons include 18, 22, 25 twice and 30, and none of the first two in those five high-stalls seasons was drawn below 18.
It’s a strong pointer to Richard Fahey’s Wokingham fourth, Alben Star, for which he’s booked Joseph O’Brien from gate 25.
Ger Lyons switches to a senior rider on CD-winner Greek Canyon (stall 17), who should be spot on now (most of his wins have come be tween June and August).
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Greek Canyon is big at 16.5 on BETDAQ, as I write, Alkasser short at 6.8 because of his draw. Alben Star is well placed and looks value, despite the size of the field, at 10.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 30 points, except the banker race)
BET 5pts win (nap) MUTHMIR (2.05 Newcastle)
BET 5.3pts win ALMARGO (3.15 Newcastle)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 5pts win and place DARK CRUSADER, and (win-20) 2.6pts win and place VAN PERCY (3.50 Newcastle)
BET 3.3pts win ALBEN STAR, 1.6pts win and place GREEK CANYON (4.15 The Curragh).
BANKER STAKES: BET 20pts win AUSTRALIA, and (to win 20) 0.4pts win and 2.7pts place ORCHESTRA (5.30 The Curragh)
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