DAQMAN NEEDS THREE FOR THE 100: Daqman takes the challenge to the Ebor with bull’s-eye bets today in a bid to extend his 97-35 lead over Pricewise for winning bets since the value match started at the start of last jumps season. The races today are 2.40, 3.15, 3.50 York and 3.30 Goodwood.
BANKER BET RUNNING TONIGHT: He goes for a maximum-stakes bet at Windsor tonight, hoping to top 100 points for the banker. Here are the standings for his bets before the action today:
CHALLENGE: Daqman 97, Pricewise 35
VALUE: Bull’s-Eye Bets: + 243 points
MAXIMUM: Banker bets + 78.73 points
CURRENT NAP (at York): + 31.60 points
BACK OF THE NET! VAN PERCY 15.0 EBOR PICK
3.50 York (Ebor Handicap) Middle-to-high numbers in the draw have made a clean sweep of this prize in the last nine years with the winner coming from stalls 10, 14, 14, 16, 16, 18, 18, 22. Only two have scored from single-figure stalls this century.
The implication is not only that horses are getting trapped on the inside rail but that there is better ground coming down the less trampled and trammeling outside.
No winner since Sea Pigeon in 1979 has been able to carry more than 9st 4lb to victory, though it is worth remembering that handicaps are becoming tight affairs (today’s weights have just a 9lb parameter).
So weight and draw are unlikely to worry the big gamble of the race, Sir Mark Prescott’s Pallisator. But what about the form?
Pallasator (beaten by De Rigeur first run back) has had his Ascot success boosted by four of the next five home, including yesterday by Glenard but that one was also beaten by Suegioo and Repeater – second and third – in the Northumberland Plate.
Ireland won the Ebor two years running (2009-10) and Mutual Regard, formerly trained by Prescott and now with Johnny Murtagh, also has good collateral form.
He beat Wednesday’s York winner Edge Of Sanity at The Curragh; and was third to yesterday’s Lonsdale winner, Pale Mimosa, giving her weight in the Challenge Stakes at Leopardstown in July. Johnny will be looking for rain.
Those two Irish winners of this both came from the Galway Festival; both had hurdles form. But last year’s Ebor fourth, Ted Veale, won there in a chase and his fencing career may have blunted his speed for this.
Also looking for rain (90% chance says the forecast) is Andrew Balding, whose Whiplash Willie goes well fresh and won last year’s Melrose over today’s CD. Stable won with Absolutely So yesterday.
Jokers in the pack are Wadi Al Hattawi, Bold Sniper, Nearly Caught and Sir Walter Scott. Luca Cumani, who has won this three times (between 1999-2007), took ‘Scottie’ from Ballydoyle, and his first run in England was very promising over too short a trip but he is inexperienced in big, bullying fields.
The royal runner, Bold Sniper, placed at Royal Ascot and in the John Smith’s Cup (10f) here last month, has always looked as though he needed a distance of ground (related to a 2m 7f hurdles winner!) and could be a surprise packet if he settles for Ryan Moore. A 17 draw (hood discarded) suggests every possibility of tucking him in.
Nearly Caught comes out better than Suegioo and Repeater on a line through Noble Silk and would have been in at the business end of the Northumberland Plate. The Noble Silk benchmark also points up the chances of Melbourne Cup hope, Van Percy.
Wadi Al Hattawai has been on a typically light Saeed Bin Suroor schedule, has won on the Knavesmire and looks the darkest of them all.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: It’s not so much the weights as the rise in weight that has me looking below the top five. Pallisator has been aimed at this but is 11lb higher than when fifth in the 2013 Cesarewitch; Clever Cookie is up 10lb for his CD win May; Mutual Regard 11lb higher than his Curragh success; Suegioo 9lb more than his Chester Cup win; De Rigeur 8lb more than at the start of the year; and Whiplash Willie has copped a stone more than for his Melrose second of 2013.
Whatever I pick, the 107% list in the orange, early mouse, gives me value all the way, alongside take-outs of 122, 123 and 132% Total SP for this race in the last three years.
Wadi Al Hattawi (13.0 on BETDAQ this morning), Van Percy (15.0) and Bold Sniper (17.0) are drawn where past winners have come.
PUT ROCKET TO MOON FOR MELROSE FORECAST
1.30 Deauville (Prix du Calvados) English raiders are going for a four-timer in this, with Kevin Ryan trying to keep the brandy in Yorkshire with Calypso Beat, following subsequent Nell Gwyn winner, Sandiva, for Richard Fahey last year.
Calypso Beat tried to make all in the Sweet Solera (soft) at Newmarket, overhauled in the closing stages. It’s still very soft going at Deauville, and her apparent danger, Sea The Stars filly Sivoliere, has won only on good ground.
2.20 Goodwood (Prestige Stakes) Mick Channon (Malabar) and Marco Botti (Astrelle) have both won this in recent years, and Malabar leapfrogged Efflorescence, the forecast favourite ,to go front of the BETDAQ market early mouse.
2.40 York (Melrose Stakes) The Ebor for the three-year-olds and much of the stats for the big race apply to this.
Improver Cinnecticut is up in grade, up in trip and up the ratings, so will have to do better still. But they’re all trying to raise their game from class 3 and 4 levels, with one or two exceptions.
Johnny Murtagh’s Urban Moon, brother to the Group-1 performer Telescope, the King George runner-up, and to hurdles winners over long distance, has won over 1m 4f in Ireland at the English equivalent of class 2
Urban Moon is huge at 31.0 and a more realistic bet may be Rocket Ship (11.0), who has been attracting offers from the National Hunt yards and gets 8lb from the top-weighted favourite. What a Ladbrokes forecast, Rocket and Moon!
Stepping up markedly in class is Kashmiri Sunset (15.5) but he is brother to a Cesarewitch winner, Darley Sun, is unexposed at the trip and carries a featherweight. Compare his 7st 10lb with the 9st 11lb he had to carry at Salisbury.
3.10 The Curragh (Renaissance Stakes) Russian Soul had the 2012 winner, Abbaye star Maarek, well behind in this last year and the form of the revival win for Maarek at York in March under a new trainer is not solid. Yet Maarek is 4.8 and Russian Soul 6.4 on BETDAQ as I write.
3.15 York (Gimcrack Stakes) Kevin Ryan goes for a Gimcrack hat-trick, his fourth Gimcrack in all, with rank outsider Teruntum Star (38.0 this morning), beaten by Fendale when odds-on favourite at Musselburgh.
Team Hannon (Baitha Alga) is the opnly other winning Gimcrack stable this century. But it’s a poor race for favourites, all bar one turned over since Country Reel (2002, though only one winner has been bigger than 8-1 in nine seasons.
Ahlan Emerati couldn’t get to Baitha Alga (penalized today) over the minimum trip in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot but this extra furlong might help, though he doesn’t stand the form up well, and the Hannon ‘second’ string, Molecomb third Beacon, was close on his stablemate’s heels in offers early mouse.
Jungle Cat and Muhaarar were second and third in the best guide to this, the July Stakes. There were also good offers were about unbeaten Accepted (8.4) who won a race on Irish Derby day which is always solid.
3.30 Goodwood (Celebration Mile) Three-year-olds are 11113 in six seasons (one year without a runner) and Bow Creek was too big this morning at 8.4 on BETDAQ.
He finished in front of Hors De Combat in the Britannia and was beaten on today’s course by that horse only because they tried to restrain him.
Group winners already, Captain Cat and Producer will be hard to beat but I’ll go along with the Johnston tactics at that excellent 8.4.
3.55 Goodwood The only man capable of winning this with a three-year-old in the decade is David Elsworth (2011) who provided one of yesterday’s shocks at 16-1, pipping my nap into second. ‘Elzie’ has Justice Day in this at 23.0. Justice for me, Elzie!
6.45 Windsor Kieren Fallon has finally given up on morning glory True Story. So have I. Failed as a stallion, Al Kazeem has given up with the ladies. So have I. He can get back to the big time here. (No comparison on that one until today’s results are known!)
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated):
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 5pts win ROCKET SHIP, 3.4pts win KASMIRI SUNSET, and 1.6pts win and place URBAN MOON (2.40 York)
BET 3.7pts win RUSSIAN SOUL (3.10 The Curragh)
BET 2.7pts win ACCEPTED (3.15 York)
BET 2.7pts win BOW CREEK (3.30 Goodwood)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 4pts win WADI AL HATTAWI, 3.5pts win VAN PERCY, 3.1pts win BOLD SNIPER (3.50 Ebor Handicap, York)
BET 1pt win and place JUSTICE DAY (3.55 Goodwood)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) AL KAZEEM (6.45 Windsor)
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