GREGORY LANDS NAP NUMBER 47: Gregory (nap, WON 4-7 from 6-5) paid the bill for Daqman’s bull’s-eye bets yesterday, with the nearest of them Understated (2nd 15-2 from 12.5 on BETDAQ). Gregory was winning nap number 47 this year.
IRISH 2,000 GUINEAS TODAY: It’s Irish Guineas weekend at the Curragh, starting with the 2,000 today, but there are value punting tests at Goodwood, Haydock and York, where Daqman finds more bull’s-eye targets at 13.0 and 12.0 on BETDAQ. Daqman leads Pricewise 22-11 and makes the headlines:
PADDINGTON BEARS SCRUTINY
BRESSON FORM WELL BOOSTED
ROYAL CAPE OF GOOD HOPE..
HE’S A KORKER WHEN AT YORK
CANDY CALLS FOR CLEAR RUN
PADDINGTON BEARS SCRUTINY
⭕ 3.40 Curragh (Irish 2,000 Guineas) STATS: I said in my Thursday preview that an experienced colt does best in this but, apart from Quar Shamar, the probables left in today have all been around the block a few times.
However, an additional ‘hidden qualification’ is that a low draw seems essential: winners by stall with nine or more runners since 2012 have been 3, 3, 1, 2 (10), 1, 2, 1; the odd one out in brackets came from stall 10 in 2018 with a late run from the rear.
Do we resurrect the twice-raced Quar Shamar because he is coming from the one stall? Well, he turned over an odds-on filly of Aidan O’Brien’s at Dundalk in April but she needed two more starts before breaking her maiden.
Hi Royal (stall 2) looked very useful on good and firm ground late last year, and was beaten less than a couple of lengths on soft in the Newmarket 2,000.
He was unfancied at 125-1 at Newmarket, is not with a recognised Classic stable, and third and fourth, Galeron and Royal Scotsman, are out for revenge today.
But Hi Royal’s trainer Kevin Ryan and jockey Oisin Murphy, both Irishmen made good in England, would be a winning combination even a partisan Curragh crowd would appreciate.
Where Hi Royal is, Royal Scotsman should be, too, badly drawn at Newmarket but still third out of gate 11, hampered but only half a length behind Hi Royal.
Galeron, fourth at 150-1, is the most experienced horse in the field but, after eight starts, I’m going to mark him down as exposed now, just short of top class.
I’m inclined toward Paddington, a CD winner drawn 3 and the only colt in the race to set up a winning sequence.
He’s raced mainly on soft ground but three of his sire’s successes were on good and his dam’s sire got winners on most surfaces.
Aidan O’Brien should know where Paddington stands alongside Proud And Regal, since Donnacha’s Galileo colt was only a head behind Espionage at Saint-Cloud and a length and a half in front of Londoner in the Leopardstown Derby Trial.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 4.4 Paddington
BRESSON FORM WELL BOOSTED
⭕ 2.05 Goodwood (7f handicap) With one exception, winners in the decade came from stalls 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, only two of them favoured in the betting market.
Richard Hannon has managed to get a brace of those low-drawn winners but his runners this afternoon come out of 8, 10 and 11.
Tafreej (gate 2 today) was favourite at this class-2 level at Newbury in April but didn’t like the mud, whereas Yacowlef has done best with cut in the ground.
Firm-ground winner Bresson (stall 5 today) was beaten on autumn ground but was not the finished article then (headgear discarded now) and his narrow defeat at Salisbury came when giving 11lb to the winner, Remarquee, winner of the Fred Darling in April (Fully Wet in rear).
Seeking Gold (1) and Urban Sprawl (3) are not out of it but Tafreej and Bresson appeal as representatives of top stables.
BETDAQ value 13.0 Bresson
ROYAL CAPE OF GOOD HOPE..
⭕ 2.25 Haydock (Silver Bowl) Class-4 and 5 success has guaranteed Covey a handy opening handicap mark for the hat-trick, and Hughie Morrison, who hired Oisin Murphy to get Royal Cape off the mark, now books William Buick for the Gleneagles colt’s handicap debut.
Be warned that Clive Cox has won this twice in the last four years – he runs Just Bring It and Scholarship today – but also be warned not to back one without the other.
Johnny Murtagh had me forgetting the golden rule last night when I picked Final Voyage and he won the €60k Emerald Mile with his other runner, 18-1 Rahmi.
I said you needed one either side of the draw, and they were in 18 and 8. Great credit to Danny Sheehy (3lb) who got Rahmi up on the line.
BETDAQ value 8.4 Royal Cape
HE’S A KORKER WHEN AT YORK
⭕ 2.40 York Korker has never been out of the frame in five tries over 5f on the Knavesmire; form figures 22132, including his narrow defeat here at the Dante meeting. That’s cost him a 3lb rise but Pierre-Louis Jamin claims that back. BETDAQ 5.1.
⭕ 3.00 Haydock (Sandy Lane Stakes) FORTUNE COOKIE Little Big Bear reverts to 6f and gets his ground again, after a setback in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas. BETDAQ 2.58
⭕ 3.15 York Typewriter stayed on well, fourth, in the Race To The Ebor Handicap (1m 4f) at the Dante meeting and the actual Ebor trip today (1m 6f) could give Andrew Balding his second winner in this race in three years. BETDAQ 12.0
CANDY CALLS FOR CLEAR RUN
⭕ 3.30 Haydock (Temple Stakes) This is in large part a rerun of the Palace House Stakes, in which were: Live In The Dream (2nd), Raasel (4th), Existent (7th), Sandbeck (8th), Twilight Calls (9th), Equality (12th).
The difference is, that race was run on the soft and better ground was needed by some of them, as the sixth horse home, Get Ahead, showed in winning yesterday.
Raasel and Existent were both runners-up to Khaadem on a sound surface last Spring and summer, and there isn’t an ounce between them now.
In today’s race last year, Existent was almost five lengths behind Twilight Calls (second, not clear run), whose Henry Candy yard won the Height Of Fashion Oaks trial yesterday. BETDAQ 6.0 Twilight Calls
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Goodwood (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4.25pts win BRESSON
2.25 Haydock (win 20)
BET 2.75pts win ROYAL CAPE
(1pt win stakes saver COVEY)
2.40 York (win 20)
BET 5pts win KORKER
3.00 Haydock
FORTUNE COOKIE
LITTLE BIG BEAR
3.15 York (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 4.5pts win TYPEWRITER
3.30 Haydock (win 20, nap)
BET 4pts win TWILIGHT CALLS
3.40 Curragh (win 20)
BET 6pts win PADDINGTON
HAYDOCK DAQ MULTIPLES
5 x 1pt win doubles
2 x 1pt win trebles
COVEY and ROYAL CAPE
(2.25 Haydock)
X
LITTLE BIG BEAR
(3.00 Haydock)
x
TWILIGHT CALLS
(3.30 Haydock)
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