FANTASTIC BETDAQ SATURDAY VALUE: Daqman reports: ‘I analysed the best betting races of this tricky Saturday and found I was tipping in NINE consecutive below 108% in the BETDAQ orange, two of them on 102%. Compare that with this list of the bookmakers’ take-outs at SP for the same nine last season: 120, 114, 114, 114, 118, 114, no race, 123, 116. You KNOW you’re betting big Saturday value whichever horse you pick!’
FIVE IN A ROW AS LAYS HIT 100 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman landed winning lay number 18 from 22 for the year (82%) for exactly 100 points profit when Jubilante (3rd 2-1 favourite) became his fifth in a row yesterday at Newmarket. His bets in the race included Nardin (2nd 16-1 from 19.5 on BETDAQ).
1.45 Newmarket (BETDAQ VALUE) An unfashionable stable and an unexciting pedigree but Speedfiend was a massive order this morning for a race expected to throw up a Royal Ascot runner or two.
Though Racing Post forecast at 33-1, Speedfiend – appropriately named if he’s that good – steamed in to 5.7 on BETDAQ, with Ladbrokes going only 100-30 at around 9.30 a.m.
2.05 Haydock (BETDAQ VALUE) This is one for the pin. The reason? Apache (first time hooded), Beyond Conceit, Brockwell, Castilo Del Diablo, Muntasir, Oriental Fox and Sun Central are all running over 2m for the first time.
Best effort by Apache, one-time Ballydoyle Derby hope, was over his longest trip, third in the Melrose at York, 1m 6f, and it was the only time in a handicap that he consented to be held up. But all that was in 2011.
Brockwell was three times a winner on today’s course last summer, twice over 1m 4f. Beyond Conceit’s trainer Andrew Balding has had five winners in five days this week but the gelding’s best form is with cut in the ground.
Sun Central has stamina on his dam’s side but only one winner in the last decade has carried his weight to victory in this. That would also apply to Oriental Fox but he’s being claimed off.
Dazinski (down 3lb) and Palazzo Bianco were second and third in the race last year, and both have run well this season. De Rigueur was beaten a neck over 2m in a BETDAQ race at Kempton in April.
2.20 Newmarket (BETDAQ VALUE) Frankie Dettori’s mount, Halfsin, is 212 on this course, wearing a tongue-strap for the first time, but was friendless at 23.0 on BETDAQ this morning, with no success since 2011.
Nabucco is weighted for a narrow turn-around of form with Ehtedaam on the Rowley Mile course three weeks ago but it’s a question of which one acts on the firm ground.
Beaufort Twelve is working well, will like the ground and has been gelded. The trainer says Basseterre shouldn’t be written off, and Niceofyoutotellme has improved for a sound surface.
The field is the right size for a win and place bet at an appropriate price and three chances of a return from the 6.0 Nabucco on BETDAQ seems to be the way to go.
2.40 Haydock (BETDAQ VALUE) Roger Varian goes for a hat-trick in this. Today’s pot-hunter, Ambivalent, is just a pound behind joint-top-rated Prussian and Quiz Mistress.
Alongside them is German Oaks runner-up Nymphea from the Danedream stable, but subsequent form of the first four home marks that race down as Listed level, which is what you’d expect.
Prussian’s Group 2 place was at Meydan, and form there hasn’t translated to English turf this season so far. Quiz Mistress appears to prefer cut in the ground.
Ambivalent’s yard is bullish: she beats several of these on a line through Khione, drops from three consecutive races at Group 1 and 2 level, and has fast ground in her favour: 4.1 on BETDAQ looks the value.
2.55 Newmarket (BETDAQ VALUE) Enrol and Nocturn hone their muscles for the Wokingham but their situations are different.
Once raced this term, Enrol needs to win to get in at Royal Ascot whereas, after today, the exposed Nocturn will have run more races in his Wokingham season than all bar one previous winner in the decade.
Valbcheck was red hot when fresh last season and kidded connections into Group attempts. In fact, they had to go to the pattern after he was hit with a 100 rating, which took Secret Witness three years to achieve. Both have to give speed-sapping lumps of weight away today.
Heavy Metal also drops back from the pattern and, though in receipt of his three-year-old allowance, is officially top-rated in this, and wears blinkers for the first time.
The word is that Gatepost is the biggest danger to Enrol. It’s two years since he won but is finally 12lb lower than he was forced to lug at this time last season.
The handicapper took an age to forgive him fair efforts in the two-year-old classics Prix Morny and Phoenix Stakes (both Group 1) as a two-year-old. A tasty 12.5 on BETDAQ as I write, though 9-1 with some bookmakers.
3.15 Haydock (BETDAQ VALUE) A high draw, even in this small field, won’t help Libranno and Red Jazz: eight of the last 10 winners of this race came from the first five stalls.
Eton Forever, who is better off at the weights though he beat Red Jazz and Pastoral Player over CD earlier this month, would land a quick Haydock double on the day for Roger Varian if Ambivalent has gone in.
But Eton Forever’s best form is all on softish going and last year’s winner, Pastoral Player, though a quirky sort, will surely have been saved up for this race and has the firm ground in his favour.
3.20 Chester (BETDAQ VALUE) Richard Fahey is keen on his Lord Clyde (4.1 BETDAQ VALUE race) at Beverley (2.00) but worries in this one at Chester that Area Fifty One has too much weight, and claims off him.
Haylaman is better than the bare form. Ran well here a couple of starts back and is close to Area Fifty One on a line through Tres Coronas, which suggests that Fahey is right.
Forgotten Hero and Greeleys Love are nearly horses, helped by hood and visors. They grey Spifer is hard to win with. It’s all too tight for me.
3.30 Newmarket (BETDAQ VALUE) David Elsworth (Highland Castle) let me down badly yesterday but, then, you don’t run ‘em for the punter, do you Elzie!
Gabrial The Great and Sawaki seem to want some cut, but there isn’t a cigarette paper difference between No Heretic, Sueigoo and Handsome Man on the book.
The choice of Handsome Man is on value (at 8.2 on BETDAQ he was nearly twice the price of No Heretic) and on his stamina (he’s won over 1m 6f). That’s assuming Vasily goes off in front and there is some pace on.
3.50 Haydock (BETDAQ VALUE) Three-year-olds have finished 113131 in the last six years, with three of the winners drawn 3 and 4.
The choice between Hoyam and City Girl is made by the ground; City Girl loves it fast.
4.20 Beverley Last Destination is 10101 over 7-8f on this course, is fit from a run on Monday, and needs a right-handed track: 9.2 looks good win and place, but those form figures suggest you’d be wasting your money on the place part. It’s win or bust!
7.00 Newbury Following jockey and trainer tips is not always lucrative – they often see only their side of the scenario – and Kieren Fallon’s ‘best of the week’, Duke Of Perth, came unstuck yesterday when a ‘live one’ swept by.
In this race at Newbury, Richard Hannon predicts Ligeia will win. At Windsor on Monday, Richard Hughes plans personal redemption on Come On Blue Chip (‘I got it all wrong last time’).
I’m struggling for a nap on a day of open racing, affected by firm ground, so I’ll go along with Ligeia, and try putting some decent odds with it as the hub of my Daq Multiples Saturday yankee.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.5pts win LORD CLYDE (2.00 Beverley)
BET 4pts win and place NABUCCO (2.20 Newmarket)
BET 6.5pts win AMBIVALENT (2.40 Haydock)
BET 7pts win ENROL plus 1.7pts win and place GATEPOST (2.55 Newmarket)
BET 6.6pts win PASTORAL PLAYER (3.15 Haydock)
BET 2.7pts win HANDSOME MAN (3.30 Newmarket)
BET 3.7pts win CITY GIRL and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) HOYAM (3.50 Haydock)
BET 2.4pts win LAST DESTINATION (4.20 Beverley)
DAQ MULTIPLES YANKEE: 10pts win LIGEIA (nap, 7.00 Newbury) and 1pt win yankee the same one with Enrol (2.55 Newmarket), Handsome Man (3.30 Newmarket) and City Girl (3.50 Haydock)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: An above-average day but hard choices on firm ground. Singles are each to win 20 points. Daq Multiples are staked as stated.
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