DAQMAN LANDS 16-1 TOUCH AT ASCOT: It’s that man again, launching the big-race weekend with Common Touch (WON 16-1) at Ascot yesterday, and ending a good Friday with Ballinderry Boy (WON 9-4). Can Daqman follow up 8-1 and 20-1 major-race winners of the last two Saturdays?
NOW IT’S 173 POINTS PROFIT IN 11 DAYS: He set himself a target of 200 points, rolling up from 142 points in 10 days, and might have done it in one afternoon had Blessington (2nd 7-1, finished well) and Modern Tutor (nap, 2nd 11-4, beaten a nose) got up. As it was, the earnings rose to 173 points on Day 11, his seventh with a profit, ninth without loss.
DAQMAN IN PARIS: Four races from Day 1 of the Arc meeting at Longchamp today
DAQMAN’S HOME RUN: He analyses the best of racing at Ascot, Redcar and Newmarket.
DAQMAN IN PARIS: YORKSHIRE ‘WILLIE’ CAN WHIP THE FRENCH
1.30 Longchamp (Prix Chaudenay) Only the galloping major, Dick Hern (1986), and Godolphin front man, Saeed Bin Suroor (2001), have managed to wrest this from the grasp of the home contingent, in the modern era.
Hughie Morrison’s faith in Nearly Caught belies the stats and contradicts the form. The son of New Approach is a grade-2 handicapper pitched into a grade-2 Group race.
But this ‘grand, big horse’ (Hughie’s words), only four times raced, has the CV of a potential improver, loves the ground, has ace rider Gerald Mosse to do the steering and is reckoned best suited to a right-hand track.
They have to catch front-runner Arkhip, which Valirann did at Deauville before beating Lucky Luck and Montclair in a blanket finish over today’s CD on good ground for a Group 3 a month ago. But which of those three will come out best on this soft ground? You guess. I won’t.
2.08 Longchamp (Prix Daniel Wildenstein) English raiders hit a purple patch in this, with five winners out of six (1994-2001), including one saddled by John Gosden, another Brit to bag the services of Gerald Mosse this afternoon.
His Diomed and Hungerford Stakes winner, Gregorian – has won on the soft – departs from a peach of a draw in 5 of 18, winners of this having been installed: 2 (three times), 4, and 5 (twice) in the eight renewals with more than seven runners in the last decade.
Even when a high stall managed to assert, the next four home behind him were from gates 3, 1, 4, 2, and this mile race could be the first rough ride of the 2013 Arc festival, as they jockey for position turning for home and into the explosive Longchamp straight.
Like Gregorian, Fire Ship (stall 2) has emerged from handicap company to win at Group level, beating three others from today’s field over a mile at Deauville, including the French 2,000 Guineas runner-up, Dastarhon.
Snag with that form is that the favourite, Mainsail, didn’t run his race (tailed off last), having divided Arc hope, Intello, and one of today’s opponents, Don Bosco, at Maisons.
There’s not much between Peace Burg (stall 8) and Topaze Blanche (15) – except the draw – on their one-two in a Group 2 at Deauville in June and they were again neck and neck, fourth and fifth, to Elusive Kate in the Prix Rothschild (Group 1) there in July.
2.40 Longchamp (Prix De Royallieu) Three-year-olds are 12-8 over the four-year-olds in 20 years of this fillies’ and mares’ Group 2.
Arc fans of Treve will be looking for a good run from Orion Love, fourth to that one in the Vermeille but behind Chalnetta at Saint-cloud.
Lady Cecil’s Riposte was her star at Royal Ascot, winning the Ribblesdle, and has not been disgraced at Group-1 level since, but this is her first race on ground with the word ‘soft’ in the going return.
3.15 Longchamp (Prix Dollar) Three-year-olds have a modest record in this with just two wins this century so far. The high draw is against Marco Botti’s Planteur (in 11), while Cirrus Des Aigles – twice a winner of this – has struggled to get his old form back this year.
Six of the last 10 winners have come from gates 1 to 4, with no winner in a stall higher than 7, but Mandour and Stella Wind appear to be best on top of the ground.
The draw and the soft surface tip the balance in favour of Petit Chevalier – Gerald Mosse again – and French derby sixth (behind Inello), Willie The Whipper, one of three Yorkshire runners in the race, including the prolific Maputo, who has climbed from handicaps to a Group-3 success but now has to make it at Group-2 level from a highish stall (8).
Wille and Petit Chevallier are massive offers at around 18.0 each on BETDAQ this morning., and I’m hoping a bit win and place on each will fill my Paris wallet for the big stuff tomorrow.
DAQMAN’S HOME RUN: ASCRIPTION GROUP HORSE IN A HANDICAP
1.50 and 2.20 Newmarket (Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophies) More than 30 two-year-olds pitching for £800,000 in prizemoney, 20 of them unexposed with three races or fewer on the CV.
Betting in these races could be a punter’s funeral, but I take two Weddings to fight out the opener (1.50), Wedding Ring having beaten a host of these over 6f at Newmarket a fortnight ago, with Amnesia (Johnny Murtagh behind).
Murtagh now switches to Wedding Wish, who has been finishing as though a fast-run 7f would suit. The 17.5 on BETDAQ has to be wrong.
In the next, Murtagh is on the colts’ equivalent of Wedding Ring, Toofi (2.20) having spreadagled nine from this field over a furlong less, but bred to get this trip and more. In the absence of any standouts today, I’m napping Toofi as potentially ahead of this field.
2.05 Ascot (Cornwallis Stakes) Another tricky two-year-olds race – the theme of the day – with the soft ground unknown to most of the field.
Windsor Castle winner and Flying Childers third, Extortionist should be in at the kill, but may need firmer ground. Hot Streak usually seeks too much daylight. Outer Space is inexperienced. No wonder there’s an open BETDAQ market this morning.
I’ll have my pound on the improving Royal Mezyan, a big price at offers of 11.5, with worries about the ground no worse than for the favourite’s chance.
2.15 Redcar (Straight-Mile Championship Final) Another pinstickers’ race but Surround Sound looks laid out by master handicap trainer, Tim Easterby, who has had a great year for me and won this race back to back in 2008-9.
Surround Sound absolutely cruised home in his Spring qualifier for this championship and has been quiet since. A stunning 22.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.40 Ascot (Cumberland Lodge Stakes) I can’t have Secret Number. Never won on turf. Never won beyond 9.5 furlongs. Never won unless fresh. Not one to back on the never-never, then.
A punter-friendly 102% ‘book’ of offers on BETDAQ, so we ought to have a bet, because of the value. I shall swerve the Godolphin pair (famous last words) altogether.
Gatewood and Gospel Choir have both won at Ascot, both with ‘soft’ in the going return, both with soft-ground sires on the dam’s side. I’ll back both.
2.50 Redcar Plenty of pace on here from Firebeam and Tayel should suit the class animals, Caspar Netscher, Top Notch Tonto and Royal Rascal, all three dropping from Group contests.
Royal Rascal has drifted like a dog on a raft this morning, and offers of 4.30 are well over the betting weir, so I’ll have a top-notch bet on Tonto, with Caspar Netscher the saver.
3.30 Redcar (Two-year-Old Trophy) Like the openers at Newmarket, this is another nightmare for punters, but at least most of these youngsters are exposed.
Trading Profit (7.2 BETDAQ offers) and Azagal (huge at 17.0), both reckoned worth a tilt at Group level, have suffered from soft ground and, if it’s stayed dry, should be thereabouts. They give me one on each side of the track.
3.50 Ascot Shamaal Nibras (a fancy 14.5), third in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, will love this soft ground but has his hands full with the ‘Group horse in a handicap’ Ascription.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 20 points, unless stakes savers)
BET 1.2pts win and place WEDDING WISH, with 1pt win (stakes saver) WEDDING RING (1.50 Newmarket)
BET 1.9pts win ROYAL MEZYAN (2.05 Ascot)
BET 0.9pts win and place SURROUND SOUND (2.15 Redcar)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) TOOFI (2.20 Newmarket)
BET 4.5pts win on each GATEWOOD and GOSPEL CHOIR (2.40 Ascot)
BET 4.6pts win TOP NOTCH TONTO and 2pts win (stakes saver) CASPAR NETSCHER (2.50 Redcar)
BET 1.2pts win and place on each WILLIE THE WHIPPER and PETIT CHEVALIER (3.15 Longchamp)
BET 3.2pts win TRADING PROFIT and 1.25pts win and place AZAGAL (3.30 Redcar)
BET 5pts win ASCRIPTION, and 1.4pts win and place SHAMAAL NIBRAS (3.50 Ascot)
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