8.0 SATURDAY BULL’S-EYE NAP: It’s a rare Daqman dish. He puts all his eggs in one basket in the 1.15 at Sandown with a bull’s-eye punt and nap of the day on a pearl of a bet at 8.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN IS 51 POINTS CLEAR: But there are other big-odds bull’s-eye bets as he takes on Pricewise for value in the 2.05 and 3.15 at Musselburgh for the start of Scotland’s Cheltenham trials weekend and in the 3.00 Sandown. His standings are:
Naps: 18 out of 34: five winning weeks in a row
Bankers: Seven out of 10
Challenge: Daqman 13, Pricewise 5 (51 points clear)
JOHNSON, RIDING LEGEND..
1.15 Sandown One of Venetia Williams’ favourite races. She’s won this heat three times since 2009 and is going for a hat-trick today.
She plays Bright New Dawn but has dropped the tongue-tie which Gordon Elliott applied for the gelding’s two chase successes last Spring. Has Dawn had a breathing op? I think we should be told.
Bold Henry was runner-up when Bright New Dawn was fourth in a similar race at Sandown in January, which Henry had won the previous year. There’s not much in it at today’s weights.
Similarly, Ubaltique is now better off with his Chepstow conqueror, Dream Bolt and, though up another 7lb for winning since, is also weighted to close down Ultragold on their form at Ayr.
But, if you follow all the pieces of the jigsaw, you find that Bold Henry and Bright New Dawn have no chance on Cheltenham form with Pearls Legend, another Sandown CD winner.
Richard Johnson prefers the Legend today, yet he was 8.0 on BETDAQ this morning, while the one he’s deserted, Bold Henry, was 4.8 favourite.
1.50 Sandown Here’s Buveur d’Air in a race his stable has taken three times since 2008, including with a Champion Hurdle winner. The title race is is now Buveur’s target, after being switched from chasing.
If Buveur d’Air beat Petit Mouchoir at this time, as he did at the Aintree Festival, he’d be a 163 hurdler, but can he make the same progress after being sent chasing (two from two over fences)?
Irving, who has first-time cheekpieces today, also stopped a progressive sort in Apple’s Jade in the Fighting Fifth, after ending last season under a cloud, tailing off behind Rayvin Black.
Rayvin Black may set them a target today, and we can only assume that, as the younger horse getting valuable weight, and with Nicky Henderson’s faith in his hurdling, Buveur d’Air will continue on the upgrade.
SCILLY TO OPPOSE OBEAUX
2.25 Sandown (Scilly Isle Novices’ Chase) I suggested in my preview on Wednesday that this might be a key Cheltenham trial for Paul Nicholls, and he has left two in.
Clan des Obeaux and Le Prezien are split in the market this morning by Nicky Henderson’s Arkle/JLT horse, Top Notch. Le Prezien is also engaged in both at Cheltenham.
Clan Des Obeaux, who has only the longer trip of the JLT in his sights, is on the same mark as Top Notch (152) but gets 3lb as a five-year-old.
Top Notch was 11lb and 18lb higher in the hurdles ratings than Le Prezien and Clan des Obeaux but there was just a length between Le Prezien and Top Notch when chasing over 2m at Uttoxeter in the autumn, and neither has looked as comfortable at today’s trip as Clan des Obeaux.
3.00 Sandown I can’t find a previous winner of this with more than 10st 12lb and only one older than eight
Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs share 70% of past winners, with Hobbs the man with one in off the right mark today, and with cheekpieces first time, name of Rolling Dylan, never out of a place to date in his short career.
A 7.4 morning offer, he should hold Desert Sensation and Billy No Name on Chepstow form over Christmas, and was vying for favouritism on BETDAQ this morning with Behind Time, a Cheltenham winner over shorter and in a conditionals race, never form to rely on.
The value in the race must be the 8.4 El Terremoto. He’s not the earthquake of his name but the form of his Haydock third must send a tremor through the market when Joe Public cottons on to it later in the day.
The winner, Clyne, was beaten only a length by The New One in the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock and the runner-up has scored since.
HIGH FIVE FOR FLYING ELLISON
1.30 Musselburgh (Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial) Project Bluebook was the secret US mission into the UFO mystery. Aliens found recently are being displayed at the White House.
Project Bluebook’s two flying wins here at Musselburgh have been the trajectory for this Triumph trial but, like Forth Bridge (won by a neck, also on this course), he has Warp Factor (8lb better for around two lengths) right on his shoulder again.
Fidux also gives weight to Warp Factor and to the Henderson runner, Soldier In Action, who has that ‘could be anything’ look. No bet.
2.05 Musselburgh (Edinburgh National) The usual suspects, headed in the betting by Alvarado, 2016 Scottish National runner-up but without a win since 2013.
Just A Par has scored only once since those days but he also ran second at the top level at around the same time, runner-up in the Sandown Gold Cup.
And that will be the problem with this new series of Nationals (see yesterday’s column). Unless it attracts some up-and-coming youngsters, the established stayers will take it in turn to win, according to the conditions.
Today’s good ground favours the speedier youngster, whereas those Nationals run in a bog tend to go to dour stayers of a double-figure age.
Five In A Row for Brian Ellison (only seven chases in the horse’s career), Dancing Shadow (nine) and Gonalston Cloud (nine), are all three lightly-raced and progressive, and have proved themselves recently at extreme distances.
Dancing Shadow (8.0 on BETDAQ), up from Devon, and Gonalston Cloud from Humberside are both strongly fancied but Ellison’s current form is the clincher. Five In A Row’s handler has stunning 10-day figures of 1310301211142, and I took 7.8.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked as stated)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 7pts win and place (nap) PEARLS LEGEND (1.15 Sandown)
BACK 4.4pts win (to win 30) FIVE IN A ROW and 4pts DANCING SHADOW (2.05 Musselburgh)
BACK (to win 20): 10pts win CLAN DES OBEAUX (2.25 Sandown)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 8pts win ROLLING DYLAN and 6.6pts win EL TERREMOTO (3.00 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles PEARLS LEGEND (1.15 Sandown), BUVEUR D’AIR (1.50 Sandown) and both ROLLING DYLAN and 6.6pts win EL TERREMOTO (3.00 Sandown)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
