DAQMAN SQUARE DEAL LANDS THE NAP: It’s the sole bet of the day, said Daqman of his nap, Merrion Square (WON 7-4), on the opening day of Sandown yesterday. He also had one in a place at 20-1 and won 12 points on the day to add to Thursday’s 5.50-points profit, which stemmed from a 6-1 winner.
WANTED: STAYERS IN HEAVY GROUND FOR THE IMPERIAL CUP: Pine Creek and Tominator are Daqman’s pick of the stayers who can beat the bog at Sandown this afternoon, with the ground turned heavy for Imperial Cup day.
Trainers were hit with a heavy blow this morning. The Sandown going turned heavy (soft in places) after more rain, scuppering some chances in the Imperial Cup – withdrawals include last year’s winner – and the word there is to lay, in any race, horses which have been entered expecting good ground.
1.30 Sandown John Quinn’s Calculated Risk has run four days and seven days between races well enough before, so could still be at Cheltenham for Wednesday’s Fred Winter (28.0 on BETDAQ).
But he would have to make mincemeat of these to stand any chance. They’re all class-4 animals masquerading as class 3. Fosters Road has been overfaced and could be best, though has to give weight all round. Not a race I’d want to bet in.
2.05 Sandown That extra year seems to count more than double for novices in this handicap-series final, with six-year-olds 7-2 up over five-year-olds since 2004.
Whisper is one of my horses to follow and gets an automatic 10-point level-stakes bet. He’s been found wanting only in a Graded contest against the likes of At Fisher’s Cross and The New One
He tries again to step up from ordinary novice class but then, rather like the opening race, they all have to bridge that gap.
The debate among the six-year-olds is whether a 12lb pull is enough for Seedsman to claw back the six lengths by which Edmund Kean beat him at Fakenham.
On the face of it, that’s plenty, but David Pipe’s Edmund Kean ran away with that race, despite an obvious dislike for the track and looked set to take one more stepping stone to Cheltenham and the Martin Pipe race.
He did it well enough at Taunton but still only in a novice race and a line through Minella For Party shows him 20 lengths and more behind the handicap company that one later partied in.
In fact, Edmund Kean had a hurried prep for today’s final, getting into the race with a four-day double in February.
Whisper and Close Touch, the Nicky Henderson stablemates, are both potential opponents of Edmund Kean’s in that Martin Pipe race, for which David Pipe also has Kazlian, who tries today to land a bonus Imperial Cup and Cheltenham double.
If we’re on Whisper to a 10-point stake, we need to back stablemate Close Touch, with Edmund Kean as best of the older horses to save our investment on Team Henderson.
2.40 Sandown Rigadin De Beauchene has had some hard staying chases in the mud this year and is vulnerable dropped in trip today.
The stats say that Paul Nicholls is the man to turn over the favourite. He’s done just that four times in this race since 2005.
But you could get 6.0 his runner, There’s No Panic, on BETDAQ this morning, and he is publically quoted as saying the horse ‘hopefully has place claims’. Not much encouragement there.
So it is that Soll enters last-chance saloon. Once rated top class by Willie Mullins – he was brought down in the NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival – he, too, is 6.0 at the time of writing.
2.55 Wolverhampton (Lincoln Trial) The Flat’s just around the corner but this so-called Lincoln Trial won’t help you with the Lincoln or any other race: the last three winners all failed on turf throughout their subsequent season.
Marco Botti’s Guest of Honour will be hard to beat but I note from the Racing Post that Richard Hannon – three winners in the last fortnight with only one out of the frame in the last eight days – is getting 100% out of his horses.
That makes Pilgrim’s Rest, a winner when fresh last season, a tempting offer at 11.5 on BETDAQ.
3.15 Sandown (Imperial Cup) As well as Kazlian, Pipe runs top-weight Tanerko Emery with a Cheltenham double in mind, while Paul Nicholls hopes that Mr Mole – beat Melodic Rendezvous earlier in the season – can earn a tilt at the County Hurdle.
Mr Mole is Nicholls’ J P McManus horse, which means that Tony McCoy is in the plate, and has to leave CD-winner Tominator (8.0 on BETDAQ at time of writing) to Dougie Costello.
Kazlian’s chance depends on a wind operation and Tanerko’s on Kieren Edgar’s 7lb claim, hence the double-figure offers.
Handicaps get shorter and shorter and the Edgar’s claim means there is only 12lb between top and bottom weight here, and the stats – no winner of 11st and over for nine years – seem odds on to be toppled.
It makes it that much harder for the novices, who have won in nine of the last 12 years but their dominance is reflected in the age of winners: those nine were all aged five or six.
The rain has lost to us last year’s winner Paintball and several others entered in the hope of good ground have left the stage or will be inconvenienced in the race.
Mud favours Arnaud, who was just behind Kazlian in last year’s Fred Winter on a sound surface. Pine Creek (9.6 on BETDAQ) is the enigma of the race, he’s taken an established route to this and, as an 11-12 furlong horse on the Flat, will be staying on when others have cried enough.
Mr Mole’s connections make him too short in the market and he can only be used as a stakes saver. Conversely, the Pipe pair look surprisingly friendless; you’d think one of them would be vying for favouritism but at 11.0 and 14.5 they are easy to back.
I think we need the two horses with stamina who can finish in these conditions after a fast-run race: Pine Creek and Tominator, though Arnaud strikes me as too big at 19.0 on BETDAQ for his proximity to Kazlian in the form book and love of soft-heavy ground.
4.25 Sandown Rebel Rebellion may still be good enough in this field but not at any price: after a warning about the ground from trainer Nicholls this morning, the 1.80 in the green on BETDAQ looked a lay.
Ciceron, like Rebel Rebellion, is a winner here over hurdles, and is the only one in the race who is a consistent scorer on soft ground for a stable in tremendous form. Loves it right-handed and 3.6 in seemingly a two-horse race is good value.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.2pts win CLOSE TOUCH and 3pts win EDMUND KEAN (backed as stakes saver for Whisper and Close Touch) (all 2.05 Sandown)
BET 4pts win SOLL and 2pts win (stakes saver) RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (2.40 Sandown)
BET 1.9pts win and place PILGRIMS REST (2.55 Wolverhampton)
BET 2.7pts win TOMINATOR, 2.3pts win PINE CREEK, 1.1pt win ARNAUD plus 1.8pts win (stakes saver) MR MOLE (3.15 Sandown)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 10pts REBEL REBELLION and 7.6pts win (nap) CICERON (4.25 Sandown)
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Whisper (2.05 Sandown)
* Daqman’s bets are to win 20 points, except for lays (to 10 points) and horses to follow (10 points win stake).
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