65 POINTS PROFIT FROM THREE WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: Daqman signed in with two more winners – and a near miss – yesterday, his third successive day with a profit, bringing his total to 65 points since the false-start Flat season finally got off the ground at Newmarket on Wednesday.
Wednesday (PROFIT 8.50): Intello (nap, WON 6-4), Garswood (WON 5-2)
Thursday (PROFIT 40.54): Tickled Pink (WON 8-1 from 14.0 on BETDAQ), Toronado (banker nap, WON 8-11), Ghurair lay (3rd evens).
Friday (PROFIT 16.10): Sign Manual (WON 4-1), Contributer (WON 7-4), Here Comes When (neck 2nd 6-1 from 10.0 on BETDAQ)
Miracles happen in racing but this one would beat Frankel for the headlines. Or more appropriately Red Rum, the last horse to do the Aintree-Ayr double of Nationals in the same season (1974). The miracle would be if Auroras Encore can follow up on Liverpool with today’s Scottish Grand National off top weight.
In fact, it is 87-1 that he wins another race, according to the stats I revealed in this column: Liverpool heroes in the last 10 years won only one of their next 88 starts.
The last big-weight winner in today’s race was Grey Abbey (11-12) in 2004 and there have been two placed horses with similar burdens since since, Halcon Genelardais and Gone To Lunch. All three had missed Aintree altogether.
The remaining 21 of the 24 places in the 1-2-3 of the last eight years have gone to horses carrying less than 11st. Though second last year, Auroras Encore must be a place lay at 4.5 in the green this morning. Meanwhile ‘everybody’ has picked ‘my’ horse for the race (see below).
1.50 Newbury (John Porter Stakes) Winners of this have already won a Group 3 or been placed even higher, which sets apart Noble Mission, Model Pupil and Allied Powers, though Allied Powers is nine now and he’s needed very soft ground for a solitary success since June 2010.
Ryan Moore reckons Model Pupil ‘has an engine’ and will go close to beating the obvious one for the race, Henry Cecil’s Noble Mission, who will never live up to the tag of brother to Frankel.
This pair are the Spring horses, whereas Guarantee has never won a race before July though, in the long term, this is the one – just too weak to play a proper part in the St Leger last season – I want for my horses to follow list, so I will be keeping a close eye on him today.
I thought Noble Mission struggled to get the 1m 4f last season (they didn’t dare run brother Frankel beyond 1m 2f, did they), so Model Pupil is my first choice.
2.20 Newbury Spring Cup Today’s Cup is a rerun of this year’s Lincoln for Levitate (won), Global Village (2nd), Brae Hill (3rd), Justonefortheroad (4th), Chapter Seven (6th), Capaill Liath (10th), Memory Cloth (13th) and Captain Bertie (16th).
Something always seems to beat the Lincoln horses and the one they want this morning is the Spring Mile winner, Educate, a real improver and entitled to be, as he didn’t see a racecourse until last June.
The drying ground will suit Norse Blues, who could take a leap forward under his new trainer, David Barron, off a handy handicap mark. He won the Spring Mile first time out in 2012.
The Racing Post today shows The Queen with Hayley Turner at Newbury yesterday. A day too early, perhaps, since Hayley has a great chance on Her Majesty’s Border Legend, a mover on BETDAQ this morning, in to 11.0.
2.55 Newbury (Fred Darling Stakes) Some Classic trial! The last five winners failed to win more than a single conditions race in England after their Fred Darling ‘triumph.’
Agent Allison, one of my horses to follow last season, won first time out in 2012 but Peter Chapple-Hyam is currently 1-15.
Rosdhu Queen, who made all in the Lowther and Cheveley Park, has a furlong further to travel here but Maureen was a disappointing favourite behind her in the Cheveley Park. Pass.
3.30 Newbury (Greenham Stakes) We saw Toronado slam a small field like this in the Craven this week and the same stable has the top rating here – Olympic Glory – suggesting that the Hannon canons are sounding Guineas success.
The Hannons have a long history in the Greenham (including three of the last six winners) and the race can produce a good horse though doesn’t launch many called Frankel (2011).
So is Olympic Glory better than Toronado? The Guineas betting currently says it’s 16-1 for Glory, with 7-2 Toronado but, if you look for confirmation on BETDAQ, as the wise punter does these days, you will see a massive 27.0 Olympic Glory, out like a lonely dog on a raft, which puts me off him for Newmarket. . And for today!
How can the horse beaten only by Dawn Approach be 27.0 when Dawn Approach himself is little better than even money. Shumthing wrong shumwhere!
Mill Reef winner Moohajim is a bigger price with the bookies for Newmarket but shorter on the Daq at 19.0. I’ll take this cue, add it to the way they’re fielding against Olympic Glory, and back Moojahim at 2.75 to turn over the favourite today.
3.50 Ayr (Scottish Grand National) A month or so ago, after Cheltenham week, I published a list of horses to follow for the rest of the season. In it, I earmarked Nuts N Bolts for today’s National.
I didn’t buy up any BETDAQ offers this week (I saw 17.5) because no one had seemed to notice the horse. Now, today, suddenly the world and his wife tips him!
Fortunately I could still get 15.5 on the Daq over my cornflakes, whereas Ladbrokes, for example, were more in keeping with his chance at 11-1.
I’d seen the three times winner at Ayr finish well in the festival’s 3m Specialty Chase, suggesting that this young horse was now ready for a distance of ground and that he would, obviously, appreciate Ayr as the venue.
Bradley is another who impressed me at Cheltenham but I’m referring not the festival but to last backend when he was the ‘moral’, giving 12lb but beaten only a neck by Monbeg Dude, the subsequent Welsh National winner: the 18.0 this morning was too big, being claimed off and so down to a featherweight.
Others in the lower reaches of the handicap with live chances are Godsmejudge (has had a long season), Lively Baron (has to wear a lot of aids), Monsieur Cadou (raised 12lb), Rebeccas Choice (soft-heavy winner) and Rose Of The Moon, who could do better on this flat track but may not like the ground.
Godsmejudge, Fill The Power, Our Mick and Big Occasion are probably just too young for this cavalry charge.
But an improver in the race, second in last year’s Champion Novices Chase on this course, and who has already proved himself at around 4m is Rival d’Estruval, who might have won, certainly been placed in, the NH Chase at Cheltenham but for a rare error two out.
My Verdict: 1-2-3 Bradley, Nuts N Bolts, Rival D’Estruval
5.10 Thirsk One of the changes I promised in my manifesto is to have a tilt at jackpot doubles. The hub will be Majestic Myles (5.10), who ran a cracker in the Lincoln and rates my nap in this short handicap.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win MODEL PUPIL and 2.8pts win (stakes saver) NOBLE MISSION (1.50 Newbury)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 5pts win EDUCATE, 3pts win BORDER LEGEND, 1.8pts win NORSE BLUES (2.20 Newbury)
BET 11pts win MOOJAHIM (3.30 Newbury)
LAY 10pts place AURORAS ENCORE and WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.75pts in RIVAL’DESTRUVAL, 2pts win NUTS N BOLTS, 1.7pts win BRADLEY (3.50 Ayr)
BET 8.6pts win (nap) MAJESTIC MYLES (5.10 Thirsk)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Model Pupil (1.50 Newbury), Moojahim (3.30 Newbury) and Majestic Myles (5.10 Thirsk)
JUMPS HORSES TO FOLLOW: Nuts N Bolts (3.50 Ayr)
EARLY-BIRD FLAT HORSES TO FOLLOW: Accession and Captain Bertie (2.20 Newbury)
DAQMAN’S TARGET: A standard day, staked to win 20 points, because Flat form hasn’t settled down and we’re near the end of the jumps season. But we’ll step up the big-race stakes to win 30.
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