28.0 KING FOR A DAY IN THE CESAREWITCH: Ace-tipster Daqman finds a king card among the Cesarewitch pack at 28.0 on BETDAQ this morning but his ace in the hole is the two-year-old Rufford at York.
BALLYDOYLE BONANZA AT NEWMARKET: Daqman forecasts a Ballydoyle bonanza at Newmarket in a sequence of success that could take Aidan O’Brien up alongside Richard Hannon and set up a final-furlong finish in the trainers’ title race.
1.50 York Seek Again, the Cambridgeshire fifth, tries to follow up here in the hoofprints of the fourth horse, Graphic, who did the trick in style yesterday.
Thouwra continues on the upgrade but Romantic Settings (holds King Of The Danes) and King Geoge River have struggled – and failed – to hold their ratings.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Butterfly McQueen may set the pace with Thouwra close up, letting in hold-up horse Seek Again in the final stages.
2.05 Newmarket (Challenge Stakes) The American Big Brown colt Darwin, winner of a Group 3 since joining Aidan O’Brien, is a lone defender of second-season success in this (three-year-olds have won five out of six).
Ansgar was just in front of him at The Curragh on the last day, but neither horse would want any rain, which also applies to the Hannon pair, Libranno (seemingly Richard Hughes’ choice) and Trumpet Major.
Highland Colori (Ayr Gold Cup) has a high rating among these for a handicapper. Fiesolana, Amarillo – second to Moonlight Cloud at Longchamp in the summer – and Lockwood are solid Group 3.
The official ratings for Darwin (114), Lockwood (113) and Trumpet Major (113 but Group-2 penalty) – followed by one horse on 111, two on 110 – reveal just how tricky this is for punters, with the forecast rain a deciding factor.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’ll go for Darwin’s potential but Fiesolana would have gone close in a Group 1 at this trip on the last day: 1 Darwin, 2 Fiesolana.
2.20 York DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Sam Sharp (10.0 on BETDAQ this morning) should confirm CD winning-form (August on the soft) over Hi There and Strictly Silver.
2.55 York DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Rufford split Middle Park runners Supplicant and Hot Streak in the Mill Reef Stakes, but Outer Space was slammed five lengths by Hot Streak at Ascot. Rufford nap.
2.35 Newmarket (Middle Park Stakes) This could be the second leg of a Ballydoyle hat-trick. If you look back, you’ll find that Great White Eagle is third overall in my two-year-old ratings, just pipped by Sudirman, but with a big ‘plus’ sign over him.
The eight horses Great White Eagle beat at The Curragh (Group 3) on the last day were all winners. Sudirman has won a better-quality race, the Phoenix (Group 1), but rain would scupper him.
It would open the door to Mill Reef winner Supplicant, and to Astaire, the Gimcrack winner, returning after a break since that day on the soft at York in August.
Hot Streak is the benchmark – in fact, he’s narrowly top-rated (112) over Astaire and Brown Sugar (both 111) – but Hot Streak has looked better at the minimum trip and was behind Supplicant at Newbury.
Brown Sugar, supplemented for this (needs a dry surface), has beaten them both (though Supplicant was hampered behind him at Goodwood).
Again, Richard Hughes is on the one we least expect. He rides Shamshon, well beaten by Supplicant at Newbury and not at home on soft ground.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I ran this in my head as an Irish race (Great White Eagle wins from Sudirman) and an English (Astaire wins from Supplicant): 1 Great White Eagle, 2 Astaire.
3.10 Newmarket (Dewhurst Stakes) A Ballydoyle hat-trick of Darwin, Great White Eagle and War Command would move Aidan O’Brien alongside Richard Hannon in the race for the trainer’s title. Hannon, who runs Ajaal here, has never won a Dewhurst.
In fact, Outstrip may be a bigger threat to War Command than Anjaal, who looks a sprinter. But it’s a poor turnout for a Dewhurst. Clearly the best of the bunch at 7f and 1m are waiting for the Racing Post Trophy.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: 1 War Command, 2 Outstrip
3.30 York Sprinters win in their turn. Just a few, at the higher handicap level, keep their form, and I’ve forecast – in my horses to follow list – that there’s more to come from Hallelujah, if she hasn’t gone too much in her coat.
The mare won here at Listed level recently and holds an early-season verdict over Seeking Magic at Newbury. Baccarat should go well and Bogart could bounce back but Hallelujah looked overpriced at 9.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S VERCICT: Hallelujah, 2 Baccarat
3.50 NEWMARKET: CESAREWITCH ORDER-IN
1 Chiberta King When the stamina-laden Landing Light won this in 2003, he’d run second in the Ascot Stakes, then had a quiet run up to the Cesarewitch, in which he was drawn 1. Yet he dropped right out and came on the wide outside.
From the same stall, Chiberta King, the marathon Queen Alexandra Stakes winner at the royal meeting, has also had an easy time of it since, and also has such an abundance of stamina, he could run the same sort of race.
2 Pallasator Sir Mark Prescott used to be king of the Cambridgeshire coups (Chivalry, Pasternak, Quinlan Terry) but Pallasator has all his hallmarks for the Cesarewitch: unexposed in a light career but showing the potential to win his target race.
He’s up 15lb in two months and his races at Haydock both suggested that a marathon trip was required, that he would overhaul Platinum and Clowance Estate over such a trip, and he already holds Wyborne, Scatter Dice (visored first time today), Cousin Khee, Poyle Thomas, Oriental Fox and Nanton. Well drawn but not certain to stay.
3 Brockwell Taking the rider’s claim into account, he will have 6lb on Oriental Fox (2nd when he was third) on Pitman’s Derby form and, on Goodwood Stakes form – he was 5th – is a stone better with Broxbourne (winner), 7lb with Lieutenant Miller (2nd) and 6lb with Seaside Sizzler (3rd).
First-time hood, which has been a winning aid since it became fashionable this season, shows the need for some improvement in Brockwell, whose rating hasn’t moved more than 1lb in over a year.
4 Lieutenant Miller I rated this horse a place good thing – he’s been in the first three 11 times in a row when completing – but stall 32 is a bummer.
Third in the Ascot Stakes, with a 7lb pull for a length on the runner-up Tiger Cliff, also has 7lb for half a length on Broxbourne, who beat him in the 2m 5f Goodwood Stakes.
5 Seaside Sizzler Now 8lb better with the winner Broxbourne and weighted to dead-heat with runner-up Lieutenant Miller and the fifth, Brockwell, on the Goodwood Stakes 1-2-3.
6 Recession Proof The rating of 77 he runs off here, including Connor King’s claim, compares with the 88 of his last Flat success and the 134 of his Tote Trophy win over hurdles.
He’s with the right trainer – and has the right draw – to pull off a shock, but no real form since 2011 and success here would be a major training coup.
7 Broxbourne The mare went quiet after three wins from four on all sorts of ground between 2m and the 2m 5f of the Goodwood Stakes but, though she’s now badly off with some of these, always looked right for this and has just 5lb more than for her last success.
Scatter Dice is her pacemaker and William Buick will do the steering. I put her up when she was 30.0 to win 50 points earlier in the week.
8 Tiger Cliff Like Landing Light, ran second in the Ascot Stakes, and has had an even lighter campaign since, running only once. It just so happens that race was the Ebor. And he won it.
A horse with a high cruising speed, and has improved 16lb for just three runs this season, but is now 7lb worse off for a length with Lieutenant Miller on the Ascot form.
9 Oriental Fox Won the trial for this under Johnny Murtagh over CD in September but is a once-a-year horse and penalties for him, and for Platinum, Eagle Rock and Swinging Hawk, will be difficult to defy.
10 Domination Won last year’s Cesarewitch trial over CD but 18lb higher now and has a middle draw.
11 Earth Amber Has a lot to do here on a line through Wyborne but lightly raced, well drawn and is with a master magician in Nicky Henderson. Holds Smoky Hill (through Les Beaufs).
VALUE VERDICT: With my ante-post outsider, Broxbourne gone for a walk (54.0 on BETDAQ this morning), I’m turning to Chiberta King (28.0) and Recession Proof (26.0) to provide the shocks.
Pallisator is a short price without evidence that he will stay, but Brockwell (20.0) seems sure to get the trip. Good hunting.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except the Cesarewitch, 50)
BET 5.2pts win SEEK AGAIN (1.50 York)
BET 5.8pts win DARWIN ands 3.2pts win FIESOLANA (2.05 Newmarket)
BET 2.2pts win SAM SHARP (2.20 York)
BET 7.8pts win GREAT WHITE EAGLE and 2.5pts win ASTAIRE (2.35 Newmarket)
BET 5.2pts win (nap) RUFFORD (2.55 York)
BET 2.2pts win HALLELUJAH (3.30 York)
BET (to win 50 points): 2.8pts win BROCKWELL, 2pts win on each CHIBERTA KING and RECESSION PROOF, and (ante-post 1.7pts win BROXBOURNE), plus stakes saver (1pt win PALLISATOR), all in the 3.50 Newmarket.
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4pts win double Rufford (2.55 York) and War Command (3.10 Newmarket), plus 4 x 1pt win doubles the same two with Chiberta King and Recession Proof (3.50 Newmarket) and 2 x 1pt win trebles the same four.
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